MLB Preview 2015: Detroit Tigers

Detroit Tigers 2014 Record: 90-72

Team overview:

The team that has won the last four AL central titles brings a strong core back to make another run at first place. They should have what it takes as long they can continually get production from their power hitters. The Tigers added Yoenis Cespedes this offseason and that would surely pump power into a lineup with two of the most reliable hitters, Victor Martinez and Miguel Cabrera. Former Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera had a big decline in numbers last season, although for him that means 109 RBIS 25 Home runs and a .313 batting average. While I don’t doubt he can put those numbers up again and possibly better, he is coming off an ankle surgery and is age 32. Cabrera has never seemed to be hurt so it will be interesting to see how he reacts. Speaking of surgery the other power bat, Martinez is coming off of his second procedure in three years. Martinez is a professional hitter and has proven to come off an injury to produce, but I do recall it taking until mid June before he was able to fully get his swing back in 2013. A different Martinez may be relied on to put them over the top, and that is JD. JD Martinez came out of nowhere last year to have a career year and put him prime position to be a 5 hitter on a championship club. Who knows what will be in store for this season as his BABIP was unusually high and may bring down his average, but his power seems real. Ian Kinsler should continue to produce at the top of the lineup and on paper there is a lot to get excited about with those five in the lineup. The rest of the lineup is rounded out with defensive specialists and you can compare this to what the Blue Jays are hoping to do to by surrounding their big bats with young gloves.

The defense should be formidable and that will help a pitching rotation that has seen a lot of change recently. David Price will anchor the rotation; a situation he has been in before in Tampa. I have no doubts he can handle the call, but in the acquisition of Price the team lost Drew Smyly and eventually Max Scherzer, and Rick Porcello. One of the deepest rotations in the league is no more. They do have Anibal Sanchez, whom I feel will be the second best pitcher on the staff. Justin Verlander may be slotted as the number two pitcher and many will point to the accolades and claim he will perform to that caliber but I am skeptical. His last two seasons have been sub par and he has seen a decline in velocity from year to year. Velocity at his age of 32 is not something that just comes back and he will be working on changing his style of pitching. Only time will tell if he can get back but for how often he relied on his fastball in the past I wouldn’t bet on it. Alfredo Simon had a great first half of last season, which propelled him to leave the Cincinnati Reds and sign on to be the 4th man in the Tigers rotation. Saber metrics pointed to a decline to an average second half of 2014 and it proved true. He just doesn’t miss enough bats and relies on defense and luck to be at his best. The team will have Shane Greene and Buck Farmer to compete for the fifth spot but honestly both may be best suited for long reliever, and spot starter status. The team also will not have much of a bullpen to rely on as Joe Nathan has proved last season he is not the guy he once was, and they failed to add pieces to what was their glaring weakness last year.

What To Watch For?

Shane Greene competing to round out the rotation will be something to watch. The depth and a few pieces on the active pitching can be questioned and that is where Shane Greene will need to step in and be a consistent back end pitcher to stabilize any other issues. Price is the only other projected starter under 30 at age 29, and that is typically an age where you are looking to maintain rather than improve. Greene comes in with a chance to add some improvement at age 26. He was acquired from the Yankees this offseason and although he doesn’t get much hype he does miss a lot of bats. He needs to work on his control this year, and if he can improve it he can become the 3rd or 4th most trusted pitcher in the rotation. He can solidify a back end of a rotation and is the kind of piece a team with as many vets as they do need.

In addition to some aging pitchers with questions there may be questions in the lineup by seasons end. This may not be what I am hoping to watch for but I have small fear that this team may be on the decline. 3 of their 4 big bats have question marks that could certainly point to regression. With Cabrera being 32 and Martinez being 36 and both having to rehab instead of train it isn’t something to shrug off. JD Martinez was a great surprise last year but whether he is a one and done or here to stay may be more important than the team wanted it to be. Cespedes was a smart grab and with the back end of the pitching being where it is this team will need the offense of the past to win another division title. They are running out of depth, prospects and time to win a World Series and I will be seeing if that may start this year. Many in the media have mentioned that this team doesn’t want to go down the Phillies path, where they cling to their core past their time, and if this team were to fall back in a tough decision will come on whether to sell on someone like Victor Martinez to get youth around Cabrera.

Where do they rank?

Until I see the team fall off I am not predicting the fall off. The team is still is very top heavy and I think they will be able to win consistently if healthy. I do have questions and I think there are a few other AL Central teams who are on the rise. At first I thought it was crazy to dethrone the Tigers before the season started, but at the moment, I feel that I can rank them 2nd.

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