NCAA March Madness: 2015 Tournament Preview
For this preview we will go into each region and try to find some good bets to make as final four teams. With that we will highlight who could dethrone the top teams and what could make for good value bets in each region. To start we head to the best team in the country playing in the Midwest Region.
Midwest Region
The Winner Is: Kentucky. This should be no shock to anyone. It also really doesn’t need much analysis to prove that Kentucky is the best team not only in the region but more than likely the country. Kentucky may have also been handed the easiest path to the final four, although there are a few interesting teams in their way. It starts in round 3 with possible 9 seed Purdue. Purdue has size and should hang with the cats for a while but Kentucky should find a way to win and shouldn’t have much trouble making a final 4.
I Wouldn’t Be Surprised If... Notre Dame won the region. Coming off of an ACC championship was one of the better 3-day runs of the season. The Irish are hot a kid like Jerian Grant can lead the Irish to the elite 8. The 3-point shooting that this team brings gives them the ability to go on a run against team in the country. If they are hot and hitting threes they will force Kentucky to score more than they would like to. They don’t have the size or depth to compete with Kentucky but as Kentucky coach John Calipari likes to remind us this isn’t a 7 game series this is one and done and if the Irish have one hot night the cats could be done in shocking fashion
Are They A Sleeper? Is Witchita State a sleeper? The committee gave no respect in handing the Shockers a 7 seed and also gave them a team in Indiana that is not a good matchup for them. I think they have the coaching and guard play to get through the Hoosiers in a close one and then the draw seems a little more favorable for Witchita. The Shockers have wanted a shot in state rival Kansas for years now and they may finally get their chance. They matchup well with Kansas, especially if Cliff Alexander is still ineligible and I also like coach Gregg Marshall to have his team excited to make a sweet 16. In the sweet 16 is where I would be surprised to see the Shockers go much further, but a team like Notre Dame can run cold as much as hot, and the Shockers defense could hang with the Irish. Also the possibility of Butler, or Texas in the sweet 16 may help the Shockers make an elite 8. In that elite 8 it is almost guaranteed Kentucky will be there. How can we forget the 2014 3rd round matchup between Witchita and Kentucky? Kentucky ended a perfect season as an 8 seed that made a NCAA final. Can Witchita end Kentuckys’ season as a 7 seed in a similar way? A lot would have to go the Shockers way but with guard play, experience and defense they are a sleeper to watch.
Dark Horse: West Virginia is a big dark horse, mainly because they are a trendy pick to be upset in round one by 12 seeded Buffalo. That will be a tough game for the Mountaineers which doesn’t give me much faith that they can go far. They need both of their senior guards, Gary Browne and Jawan Staten to be healthy and playing their best to hang around, possibly even in the first game. WVU can score and if they can avoid sending Buffalo to the line too often they will get by. I don’t think 4 seed Maryland can string together multiple tournament victories and I think upset alert will be on them against Valparaiso in round one. The Mountaineers could find themselves healthier than expected and in a sweet 16 matchup against an undefeated Kentucky team. Ask former Kentucky stars and current NBA stars John Wall and Demarcus Cousins their thoughts on a senior led WVU team standing in the way of a Kentucky team destined to win a title. The Mountaineers pulled off Magic in 2010 and they may have the chance again. It is pretty unlikely but I wouldn’t end the Mountaineers season quite yet.
West Region
The Winner Is: Arizona. The wildcats are playing their best ball at the right time. They have talent, a point guard who is the locker room leader, and most importantly they have the size to matchup with anyone. I see little chance they find themselves losing until at the earliest an Elite 8. That would be in a matchup with top seeded Wisconsin. Wisconsin ended the Wildcasts season in the 2014 elite 8, and what I think is now a better Arizona team will be looking for revenge. Sean Miller is one of the best coaches in college basketball and Brandon Ashely was injured in the 2014 matchup with the Badgers. Ashley brings size and athleticism that puts the Cats over the top and I see them dueling with Kentucky in the final 4.
Wouldn’t Be Surprised If... Wisconsin knocked off Arizona in the elite 8. Wisconsin may not have revenge against Arizona on their minds, but they did lose to the Harrison twins from Kentucky in buzzer beater fashion in 2014. Seeing the undefeated Big Blue in the final 4 could be all the motivation the Badgers need, and with a big like Frank Kaminsky who can play away from the basket as well the Badgers have a good mix of talent. For betting purposes it isn’t fun to see the two favorites be your personal two favorites but this region is set for the great elite 8 battle between two of the best teams in the country.
Are They A Sleeper? In this region Baylor is a big sleeper but all season there was the possibility they can go far. Baylor always seems to lose when you least expect them too which puts them on upset alert at all stops, but the size and offensive rebounding that they bring is what makes them scary. Kenny Cherry can bring decent guard play for the Bears and I don’t see any of Gerogia State, BYU, Ole Miss or Xavier being able to handle the size the Bears bring. They do have a chance to upset Arizona due to a nice matchup but I think Sean Miller is too smart, and the Cats are too deep. Arizona is inconsistent in scoring and if Baylor can control the boards they can win an ugly game. I don’t like their chances against Wisconsin much either, but if the Badgers are upset Baylor will be in the final 4. If they are not I don’t count Baylor out, but the 1-2 punch in this region make a pretty strong Baylor team a bold final 4 call.
Dark Horse: UNC. I know its easy to point to the top 4 seeds and say any of the 4 can make a final 4. Honestly I doubt UNC can score consistently enough to pull it off, and with the two at the top I really don’t see this region being very open. UNC does have a decent defense led by JP Tokoto. Arkansas draws a great matchup in round 3 and even that could be where the Heels run ends. If they can get by they have the coaching and guard play to get hot and beat the Badgers. While that is unlikely, beating both Wisconsin and Arizona would be unreal and the Heels will be hoping for upsets along the way. Anything is possible in a one game scenario so don’t count out the Tar Heels but it would be a wild, and unpredictable ride for them to get past the sweet 16.
South
The Winner Is: Gonzaga. Like the West I feel the winner of the South comes from the 2 seed. This is a strong region almost top to bottom and it will be a grind for the Zags to make their first final 4 but I like this teams abilty. Kevin Pangos brings the guard play and scoring that can make the run, and the size and depth in the frontcourt is what can win them any game in the tournament. The size is what gives them the ability to be a matchup nightmare for any team, especially Duke who relies on outscoring teams, but will have trouble defending the big of Gonzaga consistently. If the Zags can at least slow down Jahlil Okafor they can beat Duke for certain and that makes them the favorites in my opinion.
I Wouldn’t Be Surpsied If... Iowa State took a hot Big 12 tournament run into the NCAA tournament. The cyclones are one of the deepest teams in college basketball. They are also one of the better in game coached teams. After 3 large second half comebacks were a success in the Big 12 tournament an experienced team is now ready to make that run. Georges Niang was injured in 2014, when the Cyclones went wire-to-wire against UNC in one of the best games of the tournament last season; they went on to lose in a close game against the eventual champion (UConn) in the Sweet 16. The team lost some big time players from 2014, but filled them and added size with Jameel McKay. McKay is the player to watch because Iowa State lacks big time size, but if he can step up and hang with the bigs of Okafor, Przemek Karnowski, and Domantas Sabonis, they can score enough to beat the top two seeds in their region.
Are They A Sleepr? No Duke is not a sleeper but I wouldn’t bet on them to win their region either. To me find themselves being tested from round 3 on it will be a grind for them to make an elite 8. In that elite 8 they will face the potential winner of Gonzaga or Iowa State. I anticipate that to be a great back and forth game and the winner should have all the momentum in the region. I think Gonzagas ability to match size with Duke, and Iowa States ability to out score Duke present them with a tough matchup no matter where they go. That is not to mention the winner of the 4-5 game in the region could also knock off Duke. Georgetown and Utah both can play strong physical defense that can disrupt a scoring machine that is Duke. They also both have pretty good size and if that is able to slow down Okafor then the tempo and pace will slow down the entire Blue Devil team. Without consistency from freshman Tyus Jones and Justice Winslow it will be hard for Duke to make it out of the Sweet 16. That said they have the talent to beat anyone and can even win a national championship if they can get hot enough and catch enough breaks. They may be the most anticipated to win the region, but I view them more of a sleeper in a tough region.
Dark Horse: Utah. Not long ago Utah was a top 3 seed and was everyone’s final 4 sleeper. They haven’t played their best recently and with a few ugly losses down the stretch they see themselves as a 5 seed. Delon Wright still has the overall ability to put his team in a winning spot almost any given night. They surround Wright with size and strong defense, which makes this team unquestionably tough. The Utes didn’t do themselves any favors by drawing that 5 seed and a tough round 2 macthup with Stephen F Austin which will be a pace battle from the tip. If they can slow down SFA they will win that one and may be able to get hot enough to make a run. Georgetown presents an interesting round 3 matchup, but they may have a better chance of being upset in round 2 than the Utes do. Seeing Duke in the sweet 16 actually gives them a nice shot of an upset as they can almost player for player matchup with Duke. By slowing Duke down they give themselves a chance to score enough to put the Blue Devils in harm and to propel themselves into an Elite 8. As mentioned I really like the two teams at the bottom of the bracket but if Utah can turn the intensity back up then I like this team to get into a battle with either team they faced and who is to say that Wright doesn’t get hot enough to put his team over the edge. It is unlikely but don’t count out Utah making big time noise.
EAST
The Winner Is: Villanova. This Villanova team is for real. They play strong defense, and have guards to match the bigs. They lack the depth to be one of the best bets to win a national championship but this starting 5 will go up against anyone in the country. While looking at their half of the region Louisville presents a case to upset as a 4 seed but I don’t like what I’ve seen from the Ville and I think they struggle to win a game, let alone beat a winner of UNI and Wyoming. All of these teams who have potential to play Nova in the sweet 16 all play a similar type of game. They will want to slow the Wildcats down and play physical defense. It is a fact that none of those teams can outscore Nova, and quite honestly I doubt any of them can handle the size of JayVaugh Pinkston and Daniel Ochefu. Nova will find themselves in the elite 8 where one of three teams can emerge. All present different matchup difficulties, but while all 3 may knock each other out the Wildcats should cruise while they let them tear eachother apart. Whoever survives the bottom of the East will be battle tested, but also will see their toughest foe in Villanova. It will be hard for any to knock off the Cats.
I Wouldn’t Be Surprised If: Virginia got hot and knocked off the Cats. UVA plays slow and great defense. If they could get under Dylan Ennis’ skin the can turn over Nova, get a lead and force Nova to shoot lights out to beat them. Justin Anderson is the biggest key to beating Nova because they will need to score to get a lead and he is the guy that can do it along with Malcolm Brogdon. Anderson has been hurt and has only played 2 games since late January so it will be key to get him going in the first couple games. Unfortunately for them a win over Belmont puts them up against Tom Izzo and a hot Michigan State team. While UVA can take Nova to the wire they will be working hard to just make a sweet 16.
Are They A Sleeper? The history of Oklahoma basketball may make them appear to be a sleeper but this Sooner team is no joke. Buddy Hield is a great scorer and with him and Isaiah Cousins I think they can score and run with the best of them. I don’t think they can play from behind so I would expect Lonn Kruger to push this team to get early leads. They are well coached, deep, and have the size of Ryan Spangler to compete with any team, so long as they don’t turn the ball over too much. They are a pretty unpredictable team but I see the sweet 16 being the earliest exit for them, as the winner of UVA and MSU will present one hell of a game for the Sooners. Oklahoma is pretty battle tested and they can outscore UVA given the chance for sure, but that is only if UVA doesn’t turn them over so much in the back court that they are running lay up lines on the other side. If they can score enough to beat UVA they will be in a shootout with Nova, and who is to say they won’t be hot enough at the time to knock them off. They certainly will be more battle tested than Nova given the wins they would have to get there, and when comparing the Big East to the Big 12, but it will be a grind as they are not much deeper than Nova and on paper Novas starting 5 can probably handle the Sooners.
Dark Horse: Almost every single year Michigan State is a dark horse. They always have talent, always challenge themselves in the early season, and always find themselves under seeded and hungry. The story is the same and they have the experience of almost every one of their rotation players being in the Elite 8 last season. UVA is a bad matchup for them but if they can shoot well they are coached well enough to get by. IF they can beat UVA the momentum could certainly carry them to another elite 8 and potentially a final 4 but with a deep region here in the East the Spartans will need to be on top of their game from round 1, and while they’ve been playing better recently, their inconsistency makes them a dark horse to win more than 1 game this season.
