MLB Preview 2015: St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 2014 record: 90-72
Team Overview:
You almost don’t even have to dig into the Cardinals to know that they will be competing this year. The team is on a consistent tear, making 5 of the last 6 post seasons, with three 90-win seasons included. They are the team that lets their MVP walk away in free agency and make a World Series run before the team he signed for did. The consistency does have a corner stone in Yadier Molina. Molina has played in over 100 games in the past ten seasons for the red birds. Molina provides strong defense and has been consistent at the plate, although last year he played in his least amount of games since 2004, and is now going on age 33. He will have to be monitored throughout the season as well as Matt Holliday. Holliday has been a staple of the Cardinals out field since 2010 but now is 35. He, as well as Molina saw a drop off in power numbers, and while Molina brings the defense, Holliday is a more average defensive player. Luckily for them they have the options to improve the power if Holliday and Molina are to regress. Signing Mark Reynolds to possibly platoon Matt Adams gives you the potential of 40 home runs out of first base position. Jhonny Peralta gave the club 20 home runs last season, and while he is also 33 he provided a big punch and solid defense to help the Cardinals. The infield in rounded out with Matt Carpenter and Kolten Wong. It shows to the impressive depth of talent of the Cardinals to get this far to mention arguably the most important pieces to the team. Carpenter has brought strong defense and consistent offense at the lead off position in his past three seasons and that just makes it harder on pitchers for the rest of the lineup. Wong will attempt to hit 2nd behind Carpenter in what will be his first full MLB season. He showed at age 24 he can hang in the bigs and even brings power to the team at second base. He will have competition though and honestly may hit 7th which can speak again to the depth.
That is because the team acquired Jason Heyward this off-season. Heyward had a pretty strong 2014 campaign and he can bring an on base percentage and speed that suits better for the number 2 hitter. Heyward is also a great defensive outfielder and this will be one of the better defensive outfields in the MLB. The team has a strong defensive platoon in Jon Jay and rookie Randal Grichuk. Holliday brings the outfield defense down as a whole, but late in games their fourth outfielder Peter Bourjos is a defensive specialist. There seems to be a pretty good mix of youth and experience, as well as power and defense in the lineup and that is certainly optimistic for the Cardinals to be where they’ve been recently.
The pitching has only a few questions, but as well as the lineup it has the depth to seem to overcome any drawbacks. Adam Wainwright is the ace of the staff and has been their work horse most of his career. Wainwright has pitched 200 innings 5 times, including twice since his Tommy John surgery in 2011. The only season since his surgery he didn’t pitch 200 innings, he pitched 198 and added 32 starts just one season removed from the procedure. Wainwright is a stud, but is now 33 and saw a decrease in his K% and also had to miss a couple starts in 2014 with elbow soreness. It seemed he took a decrease in velocity in 2014 so it should be monitored at his age. Behind him is the consistency of Lance Lynn and John Lackey. Both guys, like Wainwright can eat a lot of innings, and while they both have known to get roughed up start-to-start they can go both go deep, and Lynn at age 27 may still be entering a prime. Speaking of prime the Cardinals have 23 year old Michael Wacha expected to break out into one very soon. Wacha has shown he can miss bats, but with a few shoulder concerns in 2014 as well as some other bumps throughout his minor league career give him some possible injury concerns. Luckily for the Cardinals they can ease him along as they have a crew to battle for the fifth as well as take spot starts for the scare of Wainwright/Wacha.
What To Watch For?
The bottom of the rotation is what I would be watching for because by seasons end that could very well be the workhorse John Lackey. Jaime Garcia is not a guarantee because he has battled injury most of his career. However when he is healthy he has proven he can be a strong pitcher, and can miss enough bats to hold his own the rotation. He is a number 5 options that almost any team would take, given that he is healthy.
While Garcia can hang in the rotation the team has two young flamethrowers in Marco Gonzales, and Carlos Martinez, who will really up the competition. The two combined for 12 MLB starts but with both being under 25, Gonzales at 23, they both have plenty of time to settle into the MLB. The team should expect to start Garcia fifth right away which does make sense, but given the injury questions, both should have their chances this season. I like both of their upside and would assume given a chance it will be hard to take either out of a starting role. This is not even to mention the team has a few other MLB pitchers in AAA, which could make spot starts along the way. It is honestly tough to envision the Cardinals rotation being very poor, but it will be interesting to see how they go about filling the rotation throughout the season.
Where Do They Rank?
The Cardinals are a strong well-rounded team. I did not even mention a bullpen that is strong as well. The NL central is one of the strongest divisions top to bottom and the Cardinals will need to be playing their best to win another division title in 2015. I think that the Cardinals will make the playoffs and are one of the better teams in the MLB but given the tough competition, and some of the Cardinals being injury prone I would rank the Cardinals 2nd in the central.
