MLB Preview 2015: Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates 2014 Record: 88-74
Team Overview:
The Pirates found themselves in the Wild Card play-in game the past two seasons, after a 20-year string of losing seasons. Clint Hurdle and company ended that trend, and Hurdle has the Pirates on the upswing looking toward the future. It will be interesting to see if the team can take another step forward in 2015 - winning a division pennant.
When Hurdle signed on to manage the Pirates the ship seemed to be righted, but he also was in the right place at the right time and was able to be there for Andrew McCutchens’ explosion onto the MLB scene. McCutchen is 28, in his prime, and I believe that when looking at a two way baseball player as a whole, only Mike Trout can be argued against McCutchen as the best player in the MLB. McCutchen basically gives you everything: speed, power and a great glove. He may even be leading an outfield that should be talked about with only the best in the league. Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco will be joining McCutchen, and both have similar attributes to the 2013 MVP. Marte can be considered one of the best defensive left fielders in the MLB. The 26 year old had struggled at the plate in early 2014, but his second half included a .348 batting average, 7% increases in HR/FB as well as 9% decrease in K%. Marte may finally now be in his prime and if that means his second half will be typical of him then he is a star waiting to break out and it doesn’t even matter who joins him and McCutchen in the outfield. Luckily for the Pirates a former top prospect joins the two in right field. Gregory Polanco is only 23, but was able to get in 89 games and 300 plate appearances in the MLB last season. He didn’t exactly tear it up, and showed some struggles against left handed pitching, but he - like the other two - has the upside of power, speed, and defense. His 2014 full season projections would show him hitting about 12 home runs, and stealing 20 bases and if he can hit consistently he will get the protection of hitting in front of McCutchen this season. Polancos’ struggles against left handed pitching may worry some, but the team did a good job acquiring right handed hitters Sean Rodriguez, and Corey Hart to potentially platoon, or pinch hit for a possible struggling rookie. Hart may see himself in a platoon at first base however, and that is with Pedro Alvarez. Alvarez fought through injury, changed positions, and eventually missed 40 games before his woeful 2014 ended. Before that, he was coming off of two 30+ home run seasons and if he can get it all together this season he is a power punch in this lineup. The idea of a team moving from the platoon of Gaby Sanchez/Ike Davis to a potential Hart/Alvarez is very possibly a major upgrade, especially in power.
Alvarez moved positions mainly to open up a starting role for Josh Harrison. Harrison earned his starting role at third base by hitting .315 with a .347 on base percentage. That combined with 18 steals makes him a prime candidate for a lead off spot with a strong lineup behind him. Last season was Harrions’ first as an MLB every day player and at 27 he has potential to be in for a few more. His BABIP shows for some regression, but how much he regresses will determine how confident the Pirates are in him going forward. If he can still find ways to get on base, and remain a defensive wizard the team should have no problems with the top of their lineup. If Harrison is to struggle at any point, off-season signinee Jung-Ho Kang may be able to provide some relief. Kang was signed out of Korea and will test his raw power in the MLB. While he tore up South Korea's finest, only time will tell how he does with the best in the world. Fortunately for the Bucs, they have a full infield and he can be eased into his challenge of facing MLB pitching. Neil Walker and Jordy Mercer bring a strong middle to the Pirates' infield. Mercer is one of the better defensive short stops in the MLB and Walker is one of the better power hitting second baseman in the league. Kang was a solid defensive shortstop, but also played third and can easily translate to second, which he has done this spring. The ability to have him for any potential free fall of Harrison, or injury and rest of the middle infielders, can show to the team’s tremendous depth. Heck, if he proves ready, former utility man Josh Harrison can be a right handed bat in the outfield at times to help Polanco come along in his rookie season, while opening more at bats in the infield.
The biggest question in which the media has brought up about the Pirates is at catcher and the loss of Russell Martin. While Martin added a lot to the Pirates recent success, they can potentially make up for some of the loss behind the plate with their acquisition of defensive catcher Fransisco Cervelli. While at the plate, Martin also had one of the best hitting years of his career in 2014. If the Pirates can get a full season out of Marte, Polanco, Alvarez, and Hart, they have the all the hitting they need to be a dangerous team this season.
The lineup is deep, and the pitching can be viewed in the same way. Fransisco Liriano came onto the scene in 2006, and after some injury and mechanical problems forced his career down a different track. He is only 31, and while you may not be expecting 30 starts from him, he seems to always hit his stride as an ace towards August. A potential 1-2 may emerge with Liriano and 24-year-old Gerrit Cole. The former #1 pick dealt with a few injuries in 2014, but looked strong in his return late last season. Entering his second full season in the rotation I don’t think there is too much to worry about. When he is healthy, he can affectively miss bats and has ace potential as he slowly enters his prime years. The team re-acquired veteran AJ Burnett, and while his 2014 campaign for the Phillies wasn’t his best, he was coming off two strong seasons in Pittsburgh before hand. At 38 he is no guarantee, but he has told the media this is his last season and he is a guy who can eat innings and will give his all every night. The bullpen also has strong depth from top to bottom, and even added to one of the better groups. Not to mention, they will even have a strong choice of long relief pitchers, due to their depth at the bottom of the rotation.
What To Watch For?
What to watch for is how the Pirates fill out that rotation. Charlie Morton, Vance Worley and Jeff Locke all have a chance to start right away. Morton has dealt with injuries, and pitching adjustments, but has proved to be a good back end pitcher. Worley is more a reclamation project as a guy who was a top prospect around 2007. He never found himself, but pitchers like Liriano, Burnett, and Edinson Volquez have had their best seasons in Pittsburgh and Worley's 2014 can go on the list with those guys as well. Jeff Locke is in a position to be a depth starter, and a trade chip this season. He may be used for starts to rest Liriano, or Morton, but he may not be needed as long as the Pirates try to add more pitching with higher pedigree into the summer.
The most important thing to watch is the progression of Nick Kingham and Jameson Taillon. Both are 23, but Taillon has the highest upside given that he was the number two pick in the 2010 MLB draft. Unfortunately Taillon spent 2014 recovering from Tommy John surgery, and will look to pick up where he left off in AAA. Kingham will more than likely start in AAA but he may be ready to make his MLB debut sooner than later. He could be a good back end piece and as he adjusts to the MLB, the role that Locke is in could be perfect for him. The team has the ability to trade Locke, for a potential need they will have this summer, and have Locke’s replacement almost pushing him out. Tailion gets the luxury of not being pressured into the rotation, and if the depth can hold up he may be primed to add a strong punch in late August. I think if that plan can go smoothly, without much injury, it is tough to argue that the Pirates will struggle to fill out a rotation in 2015.
Where Do They Rank?
I may be biased given that I have followed the Pirates since I was a kid, but I also did not foresee them making a playoff run the past two seasons, and they proved me wrong. On paper this is the best Pittsburgh baseball team that I have seen in my young life. They don’t have huge holes, and they have depth pieces to fill the questions, and to watch them and the Cardinals compete for a division title should be great. The rest of the division is strong top to bottom, but after the last two seasons, and given the mentality of not wanting to be in that play in game, I see the Pirates going into win now mode early. As long as no major injuries occur, I would rank the Pirates 1st and would say the value they have at this point is certainly worth betting them to win their division.
