2015 NBA Playoffs: First Round Preview

It is finally that time of year. While it came down to the last to the last day to figure out who all was in and where everyone was seeded, the brackets are finally here. As we look at the matchups we will now try to find some strong picks and take a look ahead at what the conference semifinals may look like. We will save the best for last and start with the Eastern Conference.

1. Atlanta Hawks vs. 8. Brooklyn Nets

The Brooklyn Nets are one of the reasons why the East is the least. I mean who would you want to see in the playoffs, scoring champion Russell Westbrook, or the old washed up Deron Williams? The Nets do have Brook Lopez and I would suspect he is able to have a good series, but the Hawks should be able to at least keep him in check. The Hawks should have Paul Millsap, and Pero Antic back to help a loaded frontcourt centered by Al Horford. The loss of Thabo Sefalosha due to his bizarre run in with the police does hurt the Hawks defensively, but Demarre Carroll should help on a scorer like Joe Johnson, and really there are no real other threats coming from Brooklyn. The Hawks are banged up a little but I see this as time to get them together, brush themselves off and move into the second round with confidence. The Nets don’t have life, and if you didn’t read Paul Piece call out many players including, Deron Williams, you might not think he will turn it on when it matters. The Hawks are -1500 and while that isn’t the most profitable bet I am not advising anyone to take the Nets because I see a sweep coming.

ATLANTA HAWKS IN 4

2. Cleveland Cavaliers vs. 7. Boston Celtics

Many could argue that Brad Stevens is the coach of the year. Most people had the Celtics ranked in the bottom 5 to start the season, and by trading Jeff Green, and Rajon Rondo and adding Isaiah Thomas and Jae Crowder they found a way to win 24 out of 36 games and make the playoffs. They did it with strong rotations, defense and the heat check of Thomas. Jae Crowder will have to watch Lebron James almost this whole series and that is the biggest matchup. Between Marcus Smart and Avery Bradley I think the Celtics are going to get after Kyrie Irving and it should be a big task for him to step up versus two of the better defensive guards. The size that the Cavs bring with Tristan Thompson and Timofey Mozgov, as well as the floor spacer Kevin Love gives the Celtics a tough task to matchup. Crowder cannot guard James all game and even so he can only somewhat contain him. Stevens will need to have a perfect mix of lineups between his defensive specialists and his offensive unit. It should be fun to watch and I wouldn’t doubt the Celtics sneaking up in Boston and grabbing a game. I don’t think it can possibly be more than one though and Vegas knows it with a -3500 price to buy the Cavs to move on. I would look to bet the Celtics at spots in single games but wouldn’t look at them pulling this series off.

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS IN 5

3. Chicago Bulls vs. 6. Milwaukee Bucks.

You can look at the outcome of this series and find positives on both sides. The Bucks will look at it as their 21-year-old emerging star Giannis Antetokounmpo getting important playoff experience as well as their new addition Michael Carter-Williams. Also to note that Jason Kidd has taken a team who had the #2 pick, and didn’t have him contribute got his team to a 6 seed (2 spots higher than the team he left) is important. All that said the Bucks can try to win a game or two but it is so hard to see them winning this series. The size of the Bulls is unmatched by many and the Bucks have none to matchup. Their plan of Jabari Parker and Larry Sanders as a frontcourt took different turns, and leaves them short handed. Joakim Noah may have a minutes limit, but he really should take the time and rest because the size of Pau Gasol, Taj Gibson and even Nikola Mirotic with some help on the boards is enough. Jimmy Butler appears to be getting it going again and if he can turn it up during this series this could be a good opponent for the Bulls to spar with and find themselves. With a rare time of a healthy Derrick Rose, I think the Bulls are on a mission and they win this with their ears pinned to Cleveland. They are -750 to win the series and if you wanted to lay the cash I wouldn’t tell you no this is probably a sure thing.

CHICAGO BULLS IN 4

4. Toronto Raptors vs. 5. Washington Wizards

The Wizards struggled throughout times and there was a point it looked like head coach Randy Wittman was going to be fired at midseason. The biggest problem they had away from some interesting coaching decisions was their health. The team needs production from its two guards John Wall and Brad Beal. Wall was dynamic all year but Beal missed games at two different points that seemed to put them in a funk. Nene also had some issues throughout but they have depth in their size and he seems to be good to go. The Raptors have looked legitimate at times and they have a strong backcourt to matchup with the Wizards. They are also much deeper at the guard position and that could help them win games, especially since Beal has seemed to be plagued this season with injuries. The two X-factors I see are Jonas Valanciunas and Paul Pierce. Jonas is the key for Toronto because he is the scoring big man who can change the game. He has a decent shot and if he can make the Wizards bigs step away it will open lanes for Derozen and Lowry who are great finishers. Pierce however is a greater X-facor. While Valanciunas has seen the bright lights, although minimally he has never grabbed the moment, Piece is made for the moment. “The Truth” is a future hall of famer and has himself a ring and now 11 playoff runs. I think experience is one of the most important traits in the NBA playoffs and with neither team having heaps of it, Pierce seems like a guy who can hit clutch shots when the team needs it and that may be enough in what should be a great series. The Wizards are +180 and that offers value in which I may not love but would take given the choice.

WASHINGTON WIZARDS IN 7

When looking at the whole of the East you can see that the Hawks do not only have an easy series to start, they would be looking at a team coming off what I would expect goes 6 games at the minimum. While the Hawks may be seeing themselves in the Eastern Finals the Bulls and the Cavs will be dueling with momentum, which should lead to a great series.

On to the wildness that is the West…

1. Golden State Warriors vs. 8. New Orleans Pelicans.

What makes the West the best is the 1 vs 8 matchup also pairs up two of the top five MVP finalists. Stephen Curry is the best player on the best team and Anthony Davis is the future star of the league. It is commendable what the 21-year-old athlete could do by bringing the Pelicans to the playoffs. This is a team who had suffered injuries throughout the season and does come in a little banged up, with a small bench. Jrue Holliday had missed a large portion of the season but has been slowed into playing time and appears to be playing in the series. His ability to watch Curry will be the deciding factor in this one and that is a huge question for the Pelis. The Pelicans do have decent matchups, and if Ryan Anderson, Eric Gordon and Tyreke Evans can play up to their level I think the Pelicans will be in a lot of these games. However I think the depth and the talent from not only Curry, but the whole 1-5. To have guys like Andre Iguodala, David Lee, and Festus Ezeli come in off the bench for major minutes it just wears teams down. The Pelicans lack playoff experience, and while it is huge to see a future star get his chance to carry a team so early I think Davis and the Pelicans season ends soon. Golden State is -5000 and it is deservedly so. I would look to back the Pelicans at spots, especially in games 3 and 4 but I would expect the Warriors take this in 5.

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS IN 5

2. Houston Rockets vs. 7. Dallas Mavericks

The very next matchup in the West brings a past champion vs. another top 5 MVP candidate. I feel as though the 2015 season that James Harden had will soon be forgotten, but was truly one of the most impressive in recent history. A team that has its point guard in and out of games before a season ending injury, and a half of a season with Dwight Howard and they improve their record by two games. That being said it may be an early exit here for Mr. Harden. The matchup is always great for him but not for his team. Patrick Beverly will not be in this series, and if he is it will at less than 50%. Howard has played in 8 of his last 11 games, after missing 25 before that. He has been able to get a double double in four of them and while I trust him, the matchup against Tyson Chandler and Amare Stoudamire will be a big one. Josh Smith and Terrance Jones will need to be the guys to step up offensively to keep this from being a one-man show. This should be a shoot out type series and when you look at the scorers in Monta Ellis, Dirk Nowitzki, and Chandler Parsons you have to like that combination. Also when looking at the point in Rondo you can make the arguments he doesn’t fit the system, and him and the coach don’t get along, but I find it so hard to forget how important playoff experience is and how that experience has always brought the best out of Rondo. He can still play to great potential at times and I am putting the trust in him to buy into the Mavericks for at least what could be a series win. It should be a back and forth shoot out series, and Harden will definitely win some games, but I will take the Mavericks at +320 to win this series.

DALLAS MAVERICKS IN 6

3. Los Angeles Clippers vs. 6. San Antonio Spurs

This is the heavy weight battle that some would have predicted to take place in the Western Conference Finals. You also are pinning the two hottest teams at the moment into the ring in round 1. This one is predicted to go down to the wire night in and night out. For the Spurs you are the defending champions, and also coming off of 22 wins in your last 26 games. They are playing that team basketball and getting the contributions from their current stars, and the emerging stars of Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard. The defense of the two will be the difference of the series and present the Spurs edge. The Spurs have the ability to put Green on Clippers super star Chris Paul and slide their scoring point guard on JJ Reddick to save Parkers legs for offense. Reddick will move around the 3-point line but the creator of the offense is now matched up with one of the better NBA defenders. When Jamaal Crawford subs for Reddick, they can put Leonard on Crawford and put Parker on their wingman Matt Barnes, or Hedo Turkoglu. Both will have a size advantage on Parker but neither can create or score on their own and it puts the Spurs in a favorable matchup. The Clippers will look away from this and try to focus on their advantage on the frontcourt. Blake Griffin is healthy and since his return the Clips have gone 13-2. Tim Duncan is a strong presence in the paint, but with injuries to Tiago Splitter and Matt Bonner the Spurs will count on big minutes from Aaron Baynes and Boris Diaw. Deandre Jordan added to Griffin may be too much, but Greg Popovich will play Hack-a-Jordan, who is a poor free throw shooter and that may affect the out come of this series. It will certainly be close but with the Spurs experience and depth I think their advantages can play out greater than their weaknesses. The under seeded team is favored by Las Vegas and I tend to agree by thinking that the Spurs at -150 will take this series.

SAN ANTONIO SPURS IN 6

4. Portland Trail Blazers vs. 5. Memphis Grizzlies

These were two of the hottest teams in the league through the first couple of months. Injuries had plagued the two and while they may not be where they want to be this is a vital series to see who gets a shot at the top seeded Warriors. Portland comes in with injury issues that deplete the team’s depth. Without Wesley Matthews, Aaron Afflalo, and Dorell Wright and with a banged up Nick Batum, almost all the scoring will be from the two-headed monster of Damian Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge. They will certainly get theres but will need more because Memphis is one of the better defensive teams and will find ways to get stops, and force passes. Not to mention that Aldridge has dealt with a thumb injury all season. The Grizzlies are banged up as well which makes this an interesting series. Marc Gasol has somewhat faded due to some foot injuries and Mike Conley appears to have some issues of his own. Jeff Green and Tony Allen are banged up as well and that leaves little room for error from the teams depth. While both have their questions and injury issues it should be a fun series, especially when Aldridge gets to go up against Zach Randolph. I think the Grizzlies are somehow healthier and if Mike Conley can give some decent efforts I think the Grizzlies have enough size to get by in this one.

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES IN 6

As you can see the West is going to be an intense grind. The first round is tough to figure out as the outlook of the conference but when looking at what I see I am expecting the Spurs rolling off an all time great duel, and seeing a former foe in Dirk Nowitzkis’ Mavs. I also see the Warriors getting by and facing a depleted, but also unfavorable matchup in the Memphis Grizzlies. It would set up for an excellent conference semifinal that should only rival the first round.

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