NL Central Mid Season Update

NL Central Update

The NL Central is shaping up to be the most interesting division in baseball as we head toward the home stretch. You have the top teams in wins at the all star break and the Chicago Cubs, who sit 8 games back from first in the central, but sit a game up when fighting for the #5 seed and a road play in game. We shall start by saying farewell to the Reds, and Brewers chances this season. Fan graphs gave both teams 0% chance of a division, and a .2, and .1% chance of a playoff spot respectively. Both teams should look to sell and my only questions will be how far will these teams go? Johnny Cueto, Jonathan Lucroy, Ryan Braun, Aroldis Chapman, are just a few of the bigger names who may get tossed around, as well as more likely guys such as Adam Lind and Marlon Byrd. The little pieces like those two can be a bandage that a contender needs and will alter the view of many of these teams as all the trades shape out.

On to the Cubs, and they are definitely in the thick of things with a 59% chance of the wild card. In a perfect world I can see them winning the play in game, but it would be hard for me to see them winning multiple series’ leaving little to discuss when thinking of betting this team. Bovada and Fan graphs give the Cubs a 4 and 8% chance of a division title and I do not think there is any value in an investment as such. The Cubs are having a nice season but they would have to be major buyers to have a chance this season. The outfield needs work, and the pitching needs depth, but the Cubs are on their way. If I were the Cubs I would hold off on selling the farm, let the young talent develop and this team will be something to watch for next year for sure.

As for the Pirates and the Cardinals I think they will be must see baseball for the final stretch of the season. The two teams meet in late September and that series may be the difference between a top seed and a play in game. The Pirates have emerged as the hottest team in baseball and I believe the pitching is here and is for real. Gerrit Cole is emerging ace, and veterans AJ Burnett, and Fransisco Liriano make the toughest 2-3 in all of baseball. The Cardinals are as fierce as ever, despite having to limp to wins at times due to many more DL days than the Pirates. When guys like Adam Wainwright and Matt Holiday go down, guys like Kolten Wong, Johnny Peralta, Carlos Martinez and Michael Wacha have established themselves as team leaders. They got off to the hot start but now the Pirates sit 2.5 games back and are given a 30.4% chance to win the division according to fan graphs. It gets interesting here because Bovada is giving you a payout assuming they only have a 26.6% chance of winning the division. If you believe in the Pirates, and trust the projections, the value is clearly here for Pittsburgh. Bovada also tends to like the Cardinals a lot more than fan graphs does, as the fan graph projections show a team with a 60% chance of winning the division, while the Cardinals sit a -400 signifying an 80% chance. The books are showing respect to the Cardinals and they deserve it but I think this is a time to buy the Pirates. They offer value, and have plenty of momentum. Their pitching is better and deeper than ever and should help preserve a scary bullpen into October. It is worth watching but at the moment it would be a good time to take the Pirates to win the division.

Parkers picks

Pittsburgh Pirates +275