NL East Mid Season Update

With the All Star break in full swing we have a few days to dig deep into the MLB and see who are some of the winners of the first half and who have been losers. Also how does playoff picture shape out in each respective division? I will look back at my preseason expectations and see if teams met my thoughts or not, and whether I am now buying or selling on these teams. I will look division by division and see who I think has value when it comes to winning that respective division, and who can make a run in October.

National League East

The Standings do not reflect it but this division is pretty much over in my eyes. First we will eliminate the weak. At 29-62 the Phillies are given a 0.0% chance of making the playoffs by fan graphs. Betting them to win an away game is a task for this 11-37 road team and that just doesn’t give anyone hope that change is coming this year. As I mentioned in my preseason post, it would be a major failure if Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jonathan Paplebon, and Cole Hamels were on this team in August. They honestly even need to sell more.

The Marlins have a ten game lead on the Phillies, but they aren’t going anywhere. I mentioned in my preseason post I thought this team could compete for a wild card and I was wrong. My premise was that guys like Jarad Cosart and Mat Latos could keep them close, and a stud like Jose Fernandez could swoop in late and put them over the top. The problem was that Latos got banged up, Cosart had his ups and downs and the outfield did not live up to my expectations, as now a guy I pegged as a breakout candidate, Marcell Ozuna, plays in AAA. The fish should just bring him back up and get the youngster some reps, because I could see myself back on this team next year, but they are done for competing this season. Latos and Dan Haren should be sold, and they should spend time seeing what they have.

The Braves have been more composed than expected but this team is not contending and fortunately for them, they know it. They came into this year with a rebuild in sight and have played it out to really be able to learn some things. Fan graphs gives them a .2% chance of winning this division, which offers no value at all but they should be a team to follow. They have young pieces to build around and it will be interesting to see if players can step up beside them in the dog days or if the Braves need to go into the offseason needing to make more moves.

Then there is the Mets. I mentioned in the preseason this rotation is DEEEEP. I also mentioned I feared whether they could produce enough runs, and thought that selling a pitcher early on in the stage would be better. I think I pegged this team strongly in the preseason and while they didn’t make that big trade, I would say that they should have listened to me. David Wright needed to carry this offense and as my concerns came true, he hasn’t played a game since mid-April. His body is breaking down in a really unsurprising way. The Mets had pitching depth, but that slowly has been getting knocked off, or drug out. It has to be concerning that Zach Wheeler and Steven Matz now join Matt Harvey as young Mets pitchers having season ending surgery in the past two years. You can say fortunately they have depth and their pitching is still one of the best in the MLB. You could also argue, one of those two or another depth name could have already been gone, and that the Mets stable lineup stand next the available Mets pitchers. They only sit two games back, but to me it is close to a mile away. The odds at Bovada give them a 22% chance at winning this division, while fan graphs only projects them out to 14%. The Mets rotation should keep them in the playoff hunt, especially for that #5 wildcard, but it just wouldn’t be a smart investment to think the Mets can now acquire a bat with the weakened pitching depth, or think that this lineup can be carried by guys like Wilmer Flores and Daniel Murphy to a division crown.

This leaves the Nationals to win by default. That is in some jest due to the fact that the Nationals, unlike most of this division, have loads of talent, but honestly in the preseason I saw the Nationals as better. Of course no one can project injuries and man have they been plentiful in Washington. Denard Span, Jayson Werth, Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon, Stephen Strasburg are just a few big names that have already seen the DL this season. Not only to mention that Ian Desmond decided to have his worst season of his career. In my preseason preview I mentioned the hitters as guys who can come in and help the star Bryce Harper if he is to continue to struggle with injuries, or progression. While everyone else has struggled he has proved me wrong and has carried this offense. Harper is now officially a super star and one of the most feared hitters in the game. Max Scherzer at this moment is the most feared pitcher in the game. I once thought in awe of what the Nationals rotation could do, but after Jordan Zimmerman has struggled at times, and Strasberg has struggled to stay on the field, the Mets could argue their core, despite injuries is deeper. That may be the case, but Scherzer is the top pitcher in the division and while the lineup hasn’t lived up Harper, with Stanton sidelined, is the best hitter in the NL East. This is a vulnerable team at this stage but lets not kid ourselves, they will win this division. Despite only a two game lead they hold an 87% chance to win the division by Bovada and an 84% chance by fan graphs. Buying the Nationals at Bovada would mean you like them slightly more than fan graphs projections, but they are the only team worth buying in the division, even at a slightly inflated price. I am not ready to go World Series on this team but they will be in the playoffs.

Parkers Pick

Nationals to win NL East -700