AL East Mid Season Update

The AL in general has a completely different out look than the NL. It appears to be much more wide open, and that starts with the AL East. The Yankees have jumped out as the favorites but they have given up and reclaimed first in the division a few times already this season. Both Bovada and Fan graphs have the Yankees as the favorites, but fan graphs is giving much more love, with a 60% of winning the division. A team sitting in first and adding Jacoby Ellsbury could be worth the buy, but I can’t see the +140 as compelling enough for me. While it all sounds good on paper I need to see Ellsbury back, and also need to see this team ride through the dog days. It is still an older club and bumps and bruises can turn into losses in a wide-open division. The Orioles are given the second best odds of taking the division but sit in 3rd place. The Orioles were my preseason pick, and while the rotation, especially Chris Tillman and Kevin Gausman did not live up to expectations, the team is still right in the thick of things. I think Gausman, who just recently entered the rotation still has break out potential, and like all the teams I could see a deadline addition being the difference between the division and the cellar. For the Orioles, a pitcher would be key, as well as an outfield bat, even if it were names like Scott Kazmir and Marlon Byrd. Of course, the Yankees could match additions and remain the class of the division, but I would specifically look at the Orioles, who have a lot of talent in the lineup, potenitally adding to it with depth position players. The Rays hold a half game lead on the Orioles, but are given the same odds to win the division as the last place Red Sox. Fan graphs even projects the Red Sox to win the division more than the Rays and that can show you just how wide open it really is. The Rays have the pitching to stay in contention all season, but they need a couple bats honestly. I agree with the projections and don’t think the Rays can win this division. I am not much higher on the Red Sox either though. The team clearly had a need for a pitcher and bandage additions such as Rick Porcello and Wade Miley haven’t quite panned out. The outfield has depth but doesn’t have much talent, although Mookie Betts has emerged as a building piece. Hanley Ramirez is a talented hitter, but doesn’t quite have a position in the field where he can play quality defense. David Oritz has had a small decline, and if Ramirez has to DH and he has to play first it certainly will not help. Not to mention their former building block Dustin Pedroia has been banged up and is currently on the DL.

The Blue Jays are a team that I think can hang with the Yankees and Orioles more than the Sox and Rays. The Blue Jays have the best lineup in the division, and they haven’t gotten the best out of Edwin Encarnacion yet. Sitting 4.5 games out they are given the second best chances of winning the division from fan graphs, but the pay out for Bovada doesn’t quite pay the enough for my liking. Like every team in this divison if the Blue Jays can add a piece or two, in this case in the pitching department then it may change the out look of this division. To recap what could put teams over the top Yankees: middle infield, outfield depth. Orioles: starter, outfield. Rays: Two power bats. Blue Jays: starter, and reliever. Red Sox: Starter and reliever. I will be watching and if any of these moves can be made that will probably be the team I will quickly be looking to bet. For the time being I will let a wild division, with a lot of talent, and a lot of holes, play out.