NL West Mid Season Update

The NL West honestly has a feel that is very reminiscent of last season. Sure, some of the lower teams may appear a little tougher than last year but I still feel we will have very similar finishes to 2014 in this division by the end. The Rockies are on pace to win more games than last year but this team is screaming dead last in the division. I mentioned in their team preview that this team is done without full season key contributions from Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki. While both have been healthy Gonzalez has appeared to hit the decline in a massive way, while Tulo took some time to right himself in 2015. Unfortunately for the Rocks, they didn’t have time for Tulo to find himself and they sit 10 games under .500, with a 0.1% of making the playoffs. It isn’t happening folks, but what will be interesting is to see when they call up elite prospect Jon Gray, and also if they trade any of their prime players, as well as any other pieces.

The Padres were a team people pegged for improvement after some big time moves, but the only thing that improved in San Diego is the attendance. Trading Matt Kemp for Yasmani Grandal seems like a joke now and the Dodgers are laughing all the way to the bank. Grandal and his WAR of 2.7 is on the books for $695K, and Kemp is making $21 Million to perform below replacement level. The Padres should blow this thing up as quickly as they built it. There is just no defense on the team, and in a ballpark that plays better to low scoring game they are just shooting themselves in the foot here.

The Diamondbacks have been the most pleasant surprise and it can just be attributed to health that was not there last season. I would suspect the D-Backs flirt around .500 all season but I cannot see them getting much better. They only sit 5 games back of the Wild Card, and do have a punch of power and speed when looking at the combo of Paul Goldschmidt and AJ Pollock. However they rank 13th in the NL in team ERA, and while the Cubs can match the power at the plate, they also conquer the D-backs with a team 3.31 ERA, nearly a run per 9 better than Arizona. They sit too far back in the division to compete and Bovada actually is giving the Padres a better shot at the division, despite the 2.5 game lead. The pay out still is not worth it at all and the Diamondbacks should just be happy to take a step forward this year.

Now we get to the déjà us of last year as we have the Giants once again chasing the Dodgers late into the season. While the Giants made the amazing October run, the Dodgers were the team to run the division in 2014. The Dodgers did some touching up on the roster and despite a few chinks in the armor; they appear more ready for a post season run than last season. Bovada is paying major respect to the Giants as they are paying out 3.5/1, which signifies a 22% chance of winning this division. Fan graphs however only gave them a 5.8% shot and as I typically do I am siding with the projections again. I think the Dodgers are one of the toughest teams in baseball, and would only expect them to be the major buyers come July 31. The injury to their third pitcher Hyun-Jin Ryu only opens the door for a team like LA to buy a guy such as Cole Hamels or Johnny Cueto. If they don’t go as big as those two names I still expect the Dodgers to add talent and depth and don’t expect a downfall from this 4.5 game lead. The payout of buying a team -500 isn’t the sexy play but it is worth it according to fan graphs. Guys like Joc Pederson and Grandal have helped fill needs this year and make the Dodgers just as good as last year. Clayton Kershaw has been the most dominant pitcher in baseball these past three years, but through the first half he isn’t even the most dominating on his own team. The thoughts of a Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Johnny Cueto 1-3 sends chills down the rest of the leagues spine. I think the Dodgers are that one move away from being World Series favorites and would certainly by them at a high, yet valuable price here.

Parkers Picks

Dodgers to win NL West -500