AL Central Mid Season Update

You could probably argue that the AL Central has been the most intriguing division so far; it may be one that is already in the bag. You have the 2014 World Series representative, then you have three teams everyone in the media was picking to win the division, then you the Twins. Yes, the Twins, who every body buried in the cellar of this division, sitting in second place. At thsi moment the Twins are the only team in striking distance of the first place Royals. The Twins had an extremely hot May going 20-7, but since have been a 29-33 team, which is what many though they would be. I think a few of their pitchers have pitched over their heads, and the regression is bound to come and I don’t see value in betting them at +600, which ranks them 3rd in the division.

The Royals were the team everyone avoided picking, and here they sit 4.5 games above the biggest non-contender, and rest between 9-11 games above the three teams everyone else was picking. I will admit I was one of those people who were down on the Royals, but I have to admit, they are firmly in the driver seat here. Defense wins championships, but it so hard for me to get behind this pitching staff. Yordano Ventura is the best starter on the team accouding to FIP, but he just came back from the DL, which sidelined him since June 12. The rest of the staff doesn’t quite get strikeouts or go deep into games. The bullpen is successful but I have seen heavy loads of innings wear teams down, and I just see them being close to breaking soon. I feel like a crazy old man unwilling to embrace change but I am not willing to buy the Royals, without mentioning that they are over priced according to fan graphs.

When looking at who can compete with the Royals it doesn’t get too exciting. The White Sox were the team everyone was singing praise of after having a major off season, but this team is out. Tied for last and 11 games out I cannot see this team getting very far out of the cellar. Sporting the worst defense to go with one of the worst offenses, it will just be compelling to see where this team goes. There is talent at the top of the roster, but it gets ugly as you dissect them, and this is a team that will have major decisions to make.

The Tigers hold the crown currently, and would be the obvious pick. I think they will stay in contention, but I am worried about their chances. They are struggling to find anyone to trust behind David Price and that can include the starters and the bullpen. They have found a few good starts here and there but man is that bullpen discussion a bad one. Oh did I mention Miguel Cabrera is out for at least the next month as they sit 9 games back. Yeah, right.

So this leaves my preseason pick the Indians. I could spend this time telling you how wrong I was, or I could sit here and convince you they are going to make an incredible run at the Royals. Yeah, I’m going that second, route. First, the defense of this team was a major issue, but the biggest problems were at short and third. The team called up two rookies Francisco Lindor and Giovanny Urshela. Lindor has been heralded as the best defensive short stop in quite some time, and Urshela is a plus defender himself. In fact the Indians, who once ranked 28th in defensive runs saved, have ranked 1st in the past 20 games since the call ups. The rotation was what I was betting on, and it took some time but I still really think this staff is one to watch. Injuries, and bad luck have given them virtually no 5th pitcher to trust, but their four arms are loaded. Corey Kluber, Carlos Carassco, Danny Salazar and Trevor Bauer recently became the first team to have four pitchers reach the 100 strike-out mark by the all star break. Maybe I am too biased towards Ks, but there is a lot less room for error when the ball isn’t in play. This is Bauers’, and Carasscos’ second full season in a rotation, and Salazar just entered the rotation in early June. Kluber had a couple rough starts at first but has been on a tear recently, despite the lack of wins. The team needs some run support, and I did think Michael Brantley would be a bigger producer. Jason Kipnis is on base at will, and if the bats behind him get going I think the Indians have everything they need to make the Royals sweat. Looking at fan graphs you see a team with an 8% chance of winning the division. The pay out at Bovada, shows value as a team only with a 5.8% chance. I will take the low price, and the high payout and throw a small amount on the Indians, in the hopes they can get hot. Again I am not saying this is a strong play, but given the pay out, you don’t have to invest nearly as much as I suggested in the National League posts.

Parkers Picks

Indians to win AL Central +1600