Buffalo Bills 2015 Season Preview

Buffalo Bills

2014 record 9-7

O/U: 8.5

Off season review:

I don’t think it is crazy to say that if we take quarterbacks out of the equation, the Bills may have the best roster in the NFL. Of course that is a position that just seems to matter more than all the other ones. Last year a Kyle Orton led team was able to pull out 9 wins with a coach who seemed to be planning his exit more than coaching the team. In comes Rex Ryan, one of the most flamboyant characters in the NFL to coach a team he went 7-5 against in the past 6 seasons. With him he brought more talent than he lost and this should be a fun squad to watch. Trading Kiko Alonso for Lesean McCoy was probably a no brainer for a team that was ranked #4 in defense without Alonso, and needs an offensive spark much more. The additions of Percy Harvin, and Charles Clay bring a boost to the offense as well. The locker room may get interesting with a hot head like Harvin, and Rex Ryan decided to raise the stakes by bringing locker room super star Richie Incognito into the mix. Also guys like Matt Cassell and Tyrod Taylor were brought in to compete for the QB job, because hey, one of them HAS to be better than Kyle Orton right? Right? Either way, without losing much of note other than Alonso and tight end Scott Chandler it seems that if the locker room doesn’t implode it was an off-season of improvement.

Offensive strengths:

Speaking of improvement put me on the list of people who think we will see one from Sammy Watkins this year. That is not to say that Watkins had a poor rookie year, it is more to say that going into his second year he is going to slowly climb the ladder of top wide outs in the league. Watkins has so much upside due to his do everything abilities. He’s fast and long, but also built and is developing as a route runner. Robert Woods is developing into a nice possession receiver, and Marquise Goodwin is a burner in the slot, but the addition of Percy Harvin could be the game changer. People seem to count him out because he is hurt a lot and he isn’t a guy people get a long with, but his talent is up there with only the elite players in the NFL. With a career 6.5 yards after the catch, he is a guy who can make you miss. At tight end Charles Clay is an upgrade over Scott Chandler in almost every way. Clay is a strong blocker, but also has some decent receiving ability. I envision this team running a lot of formations with loaded backfields, and motion Clay to play an H-back type role and catch out of the backfield as well as block. I like the idea of the backfield being loaded pre snap because the teams quarterback play, but also because of the personnel in a talented back field. In acquiring Lesean McCoy the Bills added the 3rd leading rusher in the NFL. While that is respectable, his 2014 campaign did cause some concern. He also was 2nd in carries, and his 4.2 yards per carry is only .1 better than his career low. Also he had his lowest yards after contact as well as lowest number of catches in his six-year career. One good thing to note about the transition to Buffalo is his running mate Fred Jackson. With McCoy going down more after contact, I also noticed that he was consistently bouncing runs outside prematurely. Jackson is a between the tackles back, and can set up more runs for McCoy to the flats. What makes Jackson unique is also his presence in the receiving game. Despite missing 2 games and only starting in 9 games in 2014, Jackson was the third most targeted running back in the NFL. Jackson is 33 and always seems to miss time but I have a feeling he is a perfect compliment to McCoy, and I do not think that by years end McCoy will have twice the number of touches than Jackson, which happened in 2014. It is hard to knock the Bills skill players on paper, and as long as someone can get them the ball then…oh, good time to transition to the weaknesses.

Offensive Weaknesses

The Bills 3 headed whatever you want to call it at quarterback is the team’s weakness. In EJ Manuel you have some upside. He is the youngest of the bunch, was the first round draft pick and if you read an article on written by Warren Sharp over the off season you may have optimism that his struggles are a result of his coaching. Putting that aside he is a guy who doesn’t throw the ball down the field well, or much at all. The skill players suit his style and I can envision an offense similar to what Greg Roman ran during Colin Kaepernicks’ first few games in the league working with EJ Manuel. There is a lot of play action and movement pre snap, but if Manuel can handle that he should be set up with easy decisions post snap. If Manuel does not work there is the possibility that either Matt Cassell or Tyrod Taylor will be getting a large number of snaps this season. I feel at this point we know what Cassell is and it would be hard to put any number of studs around him to create a Super Bowl contender. Taylor is a wild card as his entire career has been a back up to Joe Flacco. If he can manage a game, his running ability is something that can be added as another wrinkle in the play action offense. I never saw a franchise QB when I watched him at Virginia Tech, but I think it would be progressive to give him a hard look before throwing Cassell out there. The offensive line is going through some sort of overhaul as well and that cannot bear well for the Bills. They have some young pieces but really need them to pull together if they want to win with their QB situation.

Defensive Strengths

Rex Ryan seems like a coach that is out on the field well before practice, makes sure he catches the first defensive snap, talks defense all practice, and then will meet up with the offensive coordinator at the end to see how that went. The Bills also bring back the 2nd most efficient defense according to Football Outsiders. The greatest strength of the Bills is probably the defensive line. The talent across all four starting positions is a load and is potentially the best group of four in the league. The Bills were able to lead the league in sacks, by 5 sacks and were able to add a depth veteran Manny Lawson to the rotation. I can only imagine what Ryan can bring that front. Away from the ball you also have a cornerback who is vying to be the next big thing as far as NFL cornerbacks go. Stephon Gilmore now enters his 4th season in the NFL and I feel this is a breakout one. The pressure helps, but the Bills also ranked 1st in passing efficiency, including a mark of 1st against #1 Wide Receivers. Ranking 22nd and 12th against other receivers can vow to what Gilmore brings to the table in terms of shut down ability. Ryan was famous for leaving Darrelle Revis on an island and literally having 10 players on the other side of the field, and I wonder how much leeway he will give Gilmore this season, because I don’t think he will need much safety help. The team also ranked 2nd against tight ends but with that I give respect to line backers Preston Brown and Nigel Bradham. Many questioned how the team would survive 2014 with the Alonso injury and those two are the true reasons that have made Alonso expendable.

Defensive Weaknesses

The rest of the secondary is the teams’ biggest weakness. While Gilmore is able to hold his own the rest need to step up. Guys like Leodis McKelvin and Aaron Williams will need to take a step ahead. I don’t hate the group, and adding Corey Graham, as well as Ronald Darby in the draft should help and honestly this group probably has the most depth of the entire unit. The depth of the defense is the second big question I pose, but it isn’t a glaring hole either. They have a nice rotation at pass rusher, and their secondary is not heavy, but is deep. However, their interior defensive line could use work. While Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus are maulers, Williams is now 31, and Dareus has had a few bumps and bruises in his young career. Behind that is a lot of unproven depth and those are two names I would follow on the practice reports every week. Along with the interior, I am unsure if they even have a capable third linebacker to run with Brown and Bradham. Again it is somewhat nit-picky for a talented defense but they will need to be just as elite if not more than last year to see the playoffs this season.

Where do they rank and O/U 8.5?

The Bills won 9 games last season while going 5-3 at home. When looking at the schedule I think they can find 5 home wins again, as Buffalo is a nice home field advantage historically. When wondering if they can get to 9 again you have to see if they can get to 4-4 on the road. With games at Jacksonville, Tennessee, and Washington you may be able to add 3 right away, but ultimately I wouldn’t bet on the QB situation playing out well until I see it so I wouldn’t quite advise a bet. I see this team as an 8-8 team with potential to go 9-7. If you told me that one of the younger guys made strides and the QB situation cleared up I could see them winning the division. If you tell me they are riding out Cassell I would assume they go 8-8 at best but are looking at 7-9 or worse and a bad beat. This draws a no play and I feel as though they are in a tight race, but just a notch below the Patriots.

Parker Pick: 3rd in AFC East, no play (lean over)

Logans Pick: 3rd in AFC East, under 8.5 wins