New England Patriots 2015 preview

New England Patriots

2014 Record 12-4

2015 O/U 10

Off season overview

The defending champion Patriots are the first team we will preview. Not only do they have the crown, they have had a drama infused summer with some notable roster turnover; the perfect team to start with. Most notable is that Darrelle Revis won’t be on the roster. It isn’t notable in a way that a Patriot lifer is moving on, like Vince Wilfork, but this one and done player did so in a way that reminds me of hall of famer Deion Sanders. Sanders only played in San Francisco for one season, but he was the defensive star and put a loaded offense over the edge for his first Super Bowl ring. Revis basically did that with Tom Brady and the Patriots attack. I couldn’t help but think the addition of Revis was unlike others, and made this team a Super Bowl favorite, and now that he is gone I will question where they go from here. All that will be said about Tom Brady is that he will miss four games for this upcoming season. No matter your thoughts on the matter that is a huge blow. Some more notable incomers are names like Jabaal Sheard, and Scott Chandler, while losses of Wilfork, Shane Vereen, Steven Ridley and Brandon Browner round out the majority of their off season. All in all I would call it an ugly off-season that leaves a lot to prove in 2015.

Offensive strengths

The strength of this offense lies on the shoulders of their legendary quarter back. However, without him for those four games I don’t see the group falling off a cliff and that is because the most important player on the team is Rob Gronkowski. “Gronk” is a pure football player and one of the best in the world at that. Brady is a good quarterback, but at his age, he has a lack of a deep ball. Despite having a 64% completion percentage in 2014, matching his career 63.4%, his completion percentage when throwing 20 yards or deeper was a lowly 25% in 2014. He remains effective by beating you in the box, and with the safest of all safety blankets Gronk. Coming off an injury, Gronkowskis’ first 4 games of 2014 averaged out to 36.7 yards per game, on 3.2 catches and the Patriots had a record of 2-2. In the next 12 games Gronk averaged 6 catches for 81 yards per game and a record of 10-2 on the stretch. Tom Brady proved in the Super Bowl that he is the master of the dink and dunk and when you have the best tight end in the game running across the middle it tends to free up space. This space is most utilized by possession receivers and the next great strength, which is Julian Edleman. Gronk is the teams’ greatest weapon, but Edleman was the most targeted. Teams still never seem to game plan for him, and he continues to take every inch he is given. The two great weapons put Brady in a winning position when he is able to play, and gives them a chance to survive despite transition elsewhere.

Offensive weaknesses

I wouldn’t call their offensive line a weakness, but it should be noted that their current guards are a fourth round rookie, and Ryan Wendell, who currently is on the PUP list. Bryan Stork started at Center as a fourth round rookie in 2014 and he managed just fine, and I seem to think the Patriots won’t have major concerns. One thing I am concerned about is the running back attack. The Patriots bring in Lagarette Blount, who will miss one game due to suspension and then more than likely be the top power running option. Blount has had a few memorable games in January in a Patriots uniform, but this not a guy who is an elite runner by any means. He seems to luckily find himself in situations where he is a back up all season, and is able to churn his fresh legs on worn down teams. He only has seven career games where he has 20 touches, and averaged seven touches a game last season. If that is all he is getting then an unproven Jonas Gray may get more carries than expected. While he has some prime time performances on his list, he really isn’t a special back either, and that is without mentioning he ended the season in the coaches dog house. This leaves James White who by all accounts and purposes is a Shane Vereen replacement. The Wisconsin product barley saw the field in his rookie season, but he has the same style of play and comes off as a receiving/third down back. There is a lot to replace however for the unproven back, as Vereen was 4th in the league in receptions by a running back, and his 11 receptions in the Super Bowl proved to how he can open up the short passing game that Brady thrived in. Traveris Cadet was added in case White truly is not ready. Cadet is nice in the back up role, but like the other three isn’t anything to write home about. While the Patriots used four running backs to churn out 1,424 yards last season, 739 of those yards are no longer on the roster, and especially without a star QB for four games this will be the biggest need for the Pats this season.

Defensive strengths

The Patriots defense was in the upper tier of average defenses last year, but as mentioned the questions without super star Darrelle Revis and a team leader in Wilfork make this group a candidate to take a step back. Fortunately for them, their biggest strength doesn’t count against the salary cap and it is Bill Billichik. Say what you want about Bill the character, but Bill the man is the best coaching mind the NFL. He is a defensive mind, who has control to bring in any player he wants, and has a defensive coordinator, Matt Patricia, whom he had groomed into his own since 2004. I couldn’t imagine the talks that those two greats have had, but it puts the Patriots in any game, as schemes unheard of could be their base set in that given game. Of course they have talented players who help, and their greatest spots are at the linebacker and pass rushing positions. A team who was 13th in sacks may not have the best pass rush, but they were 1 sack away from ranking 9th, and the addition of Jabaal Sheard to rotate with Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich makes them strong on the edges. Jamie Collins became a breakout player in 2014 and quite honestly he seems like the real deal. Putting Donta Hightower on his side gives them a strong ability to muck up the ground game, and if Jerod Mayo can stay healthy they have a trio that can make a variety of plays.

Defensive weakness

Although their linebackers have talent it is a fear that Mayo, who only played 6 games in 2014, may just never stay healthy. They have little known depth in the position, and would really struggle against the pass without Mayo. Last year the Patriots ranked 30th when guarding tight ends, something Mayo had to handle a lot when on the field. If the tight ends are able to open up space the Pats may get picked apart because they do not have much in the secondary. They made the executive decision to let Revis walk and now seem prepared to prove that the scheme is greater than the talent as they didn’t look hard for replacements. They added Tarrell Brown, who has just been a guy for a few years now, but he is the most talented corner on the roster. Safety Devin McCourty will be the safety blanket that keeps this defense breathing. He had recently shifted from corner to safety and while he was excellent last season, I wonder if he will have a lot more ground to cover this season. A guy like Revis requires no safety help, and it basically gave McCourty one less assignment. I would guess he is covering for busted coverage’s a lot more this season. Lastly the interior front, which I expect to be the teams’ greatest strength by next year, currently looks rough on paper. Their last two drafts included first round DTs Malcolm Brown and Dom Easley. Easley was a high caliber prospect but hasn’t touched a field in over a year due to a knee injury. Brown should get time, but as a rookie in a complex scheme he will be a rotational guy this year. The talent is there, but not this year, and without Vince Wilfork there are questions in a lot of spots on the defensive front.

Where do they rank and O/U 10 wins

The arrow has to be pointing down right now and Vegas knows it giving a 12 win team only 10 games as the bar to eclipse. Going through the schedule I think this is an excellent call. It is hard to see anything better than a 2-2 start without Brady, and 8-4 with Brady isn’t far off from what many would expect. Honestly I could see a 1-3 start as well, and while I still give them the slight nod in the division, I give no play here because while I could see 11-5, I could certainly see 9-7, and ultimately I agree and believe this is a 10-6 team.

Parkers Pick: 1st in AFC East, no play (lean over)

Logan Pick: 1st in AFC East, over 10 wins