New York Jets 2015 Season Preview

New York Jets

2014 record: 4-12

2015 Over/Under: 7

Off Season Overview

When a team who only won 4 games has an over under of 7 the next season you know things had to go well in the off-season. In the division rival Patriots off-season overview the biggest loss was Darrelle Revis. This makes it obvious that the number one addition to the Jets is their former draft pick Revis. The Jets had an average defense last season and it was mainly because the pass defense was dragging it down. Adding a clear-cut top tier corner back to the team turns a weakness into strength over night. Revis will have a new coach this time around with the Arizona Cardinals former defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. Bowles will bring his starting cornerback from Arizona and also former Jet and Revis teammate Antonio Cromartie with him. Those two alone are a night and day improvement. Other names such as Buster Skrine and Marcus Gilchrist turn this pass defense completely around but we will get into that later. Aside from the defensive overhaul is the addition of a former top tier wide receiver, which still should have some game left, Brandon Marshall. In 2014 Marshall played in his least amount of games since his rookie season, and also had his least amount of catches since that season, in which he only started for one game. He is on the wrong side of 30 now, but he did however, have his 4th best season as far as touchdowns, and that includes beating his marks in two pro bowl seasons. Steven Ridley, Zac Stacy, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and James Carpenter are new faces and all could see significant playing time this season. The team hardly lost anything of note, which makes things exciting in the AFC East. We basically have 3 teams who went out and made vast improvements, and the fourth team who won 12 of the last 14 division titles, including the past six.

Offensive Strengths

The Jets clear-cut top talent is Brandon Marshall. Sure, Marshall is on the wrong side of 30 now but he finally brings a top receiver presence that Geno Smith has never before seen. No offense to Eric Decker, but Marshall is in a completely different class, and as I mentioned is a red zone threat in a way that Decker cannot compare. Now when we look at Decker as a number two option instead of number one guy he all of the sudden becomes one of the best options out there. He doesn’t blow you away with anything, but Decker is a pro wide receiver that is a strong route runner, and usually doesn’t drop passes. Jeremy Kerley was once a top receiving threat in New York as well and this year he can finally stay where he should be: strictly in the slot. Marshall may not be the game changer he once was, but just his addition to the totem pole of wide outs creates a ripple affect that makes the group stronger. Devin Smith is a rookie and a second round pick at that so the Jets have plans, but he is currently on the PUP. He reminds me of a Torrey Smith type receiver and could spring in late in the season for a pick me up. The Jets also added Chan Gailey as the new offensive coordinator, which could be a good move, as Marty Mornhinweg was unable to get much out of this offense. Gailey coach week 1 starter Ryan Fitzpatrick for 3 years in Buffalo, and in those years Fitzpatrick threw for at least 3,000 yards and 23 touch downs every year.

Offensive weaknesses

I struggle to believe the Jets will have more offensive strengths than weaknesses. The fact that Fitzpatrick is familiar with the system is great and all but you know you aren’t a serious threat with him as your quarterback. He definitely has starter capability, but a roster would have to blow you away to believe in a team led by him. Many are writing Geno Smith off, but I would love to see him fight back from a locker room injury and get his last chance. Smith was sacked 2.9 times per game last season a mark that leaves this crew in 24th place. While the offensive line deserves some blame, I have never seen Smith effectively pick up the blitz, and I don’t think Smith necessarily makes them serious contenders either. However, it would be a great story to see a team rally around a QB play through a broken jaw and pulling off a few wins. Aside from being weak in the most important position in the game, the offensive line has its share of holes. The team has had two core pieces in D’Brickshaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold, but the other three slots are not pass protectors. Willie Colon and James Carpenter are pure maulers and run blockers, and honestly are not quite above average at that either, but these two know little about pass protection. If no one can get on the same page this strong crew of wide outs may be wasted. The Jets should have an offensive line that would be prime to run the ball, but of course there is little to run behind it. Chris Ivory is perfect for first and goals and third and shorts but this guy is not a bell cow back. His 4.1 yards per carry and a top ten broken tackle percentage can testify to what he is and it isn’t a knock, he just hasn’t had another guy to take carries from him. Ridley and Stacy were brought in to take off the load and potentially make it a heavy one but I don’t trust either. Ridley is coming off a 2013 with 4 fumbles lost and a trip to Bill Billichicks doghouse, and a 2014 ACL injury. Stacy has a career 3.9 yards per carry thru 326 touches with the Rams and basically lost his job and his back up job within a year. The Jets have a clear vision as to where they want to go as all of these backs are similar in running styles, but the big question will be can the trio grind out enough yards to get people to take their eyes off of Geno Smith.

Defensive Strengths

While the offense has more deficiencies than stability, the defense is basically the opposite. Whether you like Rex Ryan or not, you have to admit Todd Bowles was a terrific hire. Everything Ryan set up seems to be the situation where Bowles would like to take over from. He revamped the secondary in a way that Ryan begged to last season and turned the teams’ clear weakness into its potential greatest strength. Revis to me can only be argued with Richard Sherman as the most elite corner back in the game. Cromartie at times was the best corner back on a team that ranked 7th in defensive efficiency. Gilchrist and Skrine were added and both will get plenty of time at safety and in the slot respectively. Dee Millner was once drafted to be the next Revis and when it didn’t look like he would be that things got bleak in New York. Now that he can be your #4 corner things are looking nice and cozy in the defensive backfield. This is without mention of 2014 first round pick Calvin Pryor who saw his growing pains, but I would expect him to take a step forward in 2015. Safety is still the weakest position of the unit, but there is upside and a lot less burden than there was last season. Pryor can play in the box, which matches up well with Gilchrist who can play center field for the “No Fly Zone” Jets. The Jets defensive front was electric last season. Mo Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson combined for 14 sacks and as defensive ends in a 3-4 their job is more of opening lanes than collecting sacks. Either way they are two of the best in the business at what they do. The Jets then went on to add Leonard Williams with the sixth pick of the 2015 draft. Williams got big time comparisons and while I am unsure of his ceiling I know his floor is a guy who can contribute on the bench immediately. This may be needed as Richardson has now found himself in the police blotter and has a date with the commissioner, but if Williams is the third d-end that will give these guys a breather, the Jets have a relentless attack up front.

Defensive Weaknesses

The linebacker core is probably the most experienced group but that is not necessarily a good thing. David Harris is entering his 8th season in the league and there isn’t much to hate about with Harris. He isn’t flashy but knows his assignments and executes. I have been one of those guys waiting for a Quinton Coples break out and while he is still only 24 I am beginning to grow skeptical. He just hasn’t developed moves and I think he has been a beneficiary of the big men in front of him, but only has 6.5 2014 sacks to show for it. Calvin Pace is expected to start opposite of him and while he brings 5 sacks, he is 34 and that 5 may sound high compared to his 2015 season. Jason Babin at 34 is the rotational piece and brings no promise of a breakout season to this unit. Most 3-4 teams cannot get that production out of their out side linebackers and still be efficient on defense. Wilkerson and Richardson can only do so much and someone needs to take advantage of their work if the Jets want to compete.

Where do they rank and O/U 7

The Jets are at a cross roads and we will know a lot more about where they are going after this season. As far as this season I just don’t think the offense improved enough for them to take a shot at the Patriots. I do think they improved dramatically, and honestly didn’t see them as a 4 win team on paper in 2014. 7 is calling for major improvement however and I am not ready to commit yet. I honestly see this team sitting around 6-7 wins however and struggle to find a reason to play an under either. I have been somewhat wishy washy on the AFC East rankings but it really is that close to me and when you have such blurry quarter back situations in Buffalo, and here it is tough to project where they will go. I tend to think this team spends one more year in the cellar and we see who stays for the 2016 run.

Parker Pick: 4th in the AFC East, no play

Logans Pick: 4th in the AFC, lean under