Cincinnati Bengals 2015 Season Preview

Cincinnati Bengals

2014 record 10-5-1

2015 O/U 8.5

Off Season Overview

The trend in the AFC North seems to be to draft well and stay away from free agency to form their cores. The Bengals, like their rival Steelers and Ravens stayed extremely quiet this off season and the most noise was that a player they let walk away in 2013, Michael Johnson, came running back for a 2015 campaign at a major discount. The team was also able to score a compensatory pick for move, which is a reminder that just because a team signed someone, it just means another team was unwilling to pay him that much. Aside from Johnson there is AJ Hawk, who I think a smart organization like the Packers let walk for a good reason, but he should be monitored because he may start the season if Vontaze Burfict isn’t healthy, and will definitely have a role in the defense. The team did lose Jermaine Gresham, but that was expected and the team drafted two tight ends in the past three years to make sure that didn’t hurt them. Injuries were a major story for the 2014 Bengals, so although they did not do much it is hard to say they didn’t improve. There will be injuries in throughout the season of course, but this team looks ready to make another run at this division and another shot at a playoff win.

Offensive Strengths

The Bengals know exactly what they want to do on offense. Hue Jackson came in for 2014, and the team drafted a running back in round two, a lineman in round four, and proceeded to take two linemen in their first two picks of the 2015 draft. Those two picks are apparent depth moves right now as the Bengals have a strong offensive line and they are ready to use it. Russell Bodine, the 2014 4th rounder, anchors a unit as the Center that now has experience, talent and depth at every spot. I would say as of now they have a top ten offensive line and that could be light. The Bengals were 5th in rushing attempts in 2014 and speaking of light, their 492 carries in 2014 may be so in comparison to this year. Their workhouse back Jeremy Hill, now entering his second season only started 8 games in 2014. Hill still gained 1124 yards with a 5.1 yard per carry mark and looked like a complete back in 2014. The team has a strong change of pace back in Giovanni Bernard who only enters his third season. Bernard is in line for 150-160 carries but is a threat in the pass game and the two headed monster that many NFL teams would love to have. Tyler Eifert is now added as a guy who cannot only catch, but was a plus blocking tight end at Notre Dame. Injuries are a concern for him so far, but he would be a player to watch on this offense.

This team should be run first, but that certainly isn’t because of the playmakers in the receiving core. AJ Green is the leader of the entire offense and despite dealing with a foot injury all season that sidelined him for three games, he was still able to accumulate 1,041 yards, including an 11 catch 224 yard explosion against the division rival Steelers. At 27 I would expect the rest helped the star and he should be 100% this season and I would expect top tier production out of the Georgia product. Behind Green is Marvin Jones and Mohammed Sanu. Jones was an Andy Dalton favorite in 2013 and wound up with 10 touchdown grabs before missing the entire 2014 season. Sanu can be used in multiple purposes and can be a game breaker but usually is not one for week-to-week usage or consistency. Behind the trio is Denarius Moore, who was once a #1 wide out Oakland (albeit they had no one else) and could make a run at redemption with little expectation and still at age 27. The offense is young, on the rise and in the second year of an offensive coordinator upgrade, what is not to love in Cincy?

Offensive Weaknesses

I don’t think it is completely fair to use an entire section to bash on Andy Dalton, but here it goes. Dalton had been handed the keys to a nice roster and has been able to help in nothing but winning seasons, but it is safe to say Dalton at his best he is a game manager. He has an average deep ball, sure, and that is important with guys like Green and Sanu, but Dalton is just not a guy who will pick teams apart. The Bengals had given their allegiance to him before the 2014 season as the future QB and he just so happened to regress in mostly every category. He managed to post career lows in yards, touchdowns and interceptions per attempt last year. You can mention the injuries, you can mention the coordinator change but as mentioned the coordinator just set the offense up for him to pass less. It is just so hard to peg Dalton as a quarterback who will ever be above the average mark. The Bengals are the ultimate test of how far a team can go without a game changer under center and it seems as though this will be the case for at least the next couple of years. I would expect the Bengals to continue to rely on the run and continue to let him manage. His completion % is a keynote of something that did improve from 2013 to 14 and the weapons should be there. There are no excuses for Dalton, and if Dalton doesn’t sink this ship, we are looking at one mighty vessel.

Defensive Strengths

The Bengals secondary is their clearest strength. It doesn’t hurt that the core has five former first round picks, and the most recent Darqueze Denard has barley saw the field. This is mainly because the teams oldest first round pick, Leon Hall going back to the 2007 draft has still been the top player on this depth chart. Hall has been in and out of peoples top tier of corner backs and I tend to love his play. He is certainly one of the better corners in the league and I think the 30 year old should have at least one more year of strong play left. Filling out the rotation at corner is Adam Jones and Dre Kirkpatrick, and both have made significant strides in the past few years. Both can switch between outside and the slot, and you understand why it would be so hard for any rookie to see the field here. It is concerning that 2015 fourth round pick Josh Shaw is currently ahead of Dennard on the depth chart, but Shaw mainly slid for character concerns, and may just make this the deepest, and highly regarded secondary in the league. Reggie Nelson, another former first round pick is a nice center fielder as a veteran free safety, and George Iloka is a sure tackler that gives them a strong twosome at safety. Behind him they have a deep linebacker core, but that is only considering Vontaze Burfict will fully recover from knee surgery. Burfict busted out in 2013 as a stud and despite only playing in 5 games he was credited for 6 tackles a game and a key piece to holding down this defense. The unit could go from strength to weakness all on his leg. As I mentioned they do have nice depth, but there is no doubt that he is the top talent is in the linebacker core.

Defensive Weaknesses

While I feel a 2014 offensive coordinator change was for the better, a 2014 defensive coordinator change was not. The defense could still improve, but DC Paul Guenther was a Mike Zimmer assistant and lets just say that the master didn’t teach the protégé every thing he knew. Guenther can still improve as well but for the first time since Carson Palmer I would consider the offense less bust worthy than the defense. Aside from the DC change, the defense saw a change in what they got from Geno Atkins. Atkins needed ACL surgery to end his 2013 season early, and while he was able to start every game of 2014, he was a shell of the former All Pro talent. Atkins recorded 12.5 sacks in 2012, and was on pace for 11 sacks in 2013 before going down. Looking at his 2014 with three sacks is somewhat puzzling. Aside from that to look at the rush defense from 12th to 28th in terms of efficiency year to year and to say Atkins isn’t the main reason would be to be blind to his game changing ability. The ACL is an injury that usually takes 12 months to recover from so to see him back in about 7 months was surprising, but you just hope he didn’t lose a step that he cannot get back in the process. The rest of the defensive line is a unit that needs help as well as the Bengals finished last in the league in sacks. The addition of Michael Johnson should help but since his 2012 season of 11 sacks, he has only added 7.5 in the next two years. Carlos Dunlap put in 40% of the teams sacks on his own, but he isn’t exactly a run stuffer and the team doesn’t necessarily have an excess of either pass rushers, or run stoppers. I would expect a better year from Atkins, but is he the same top tier talent? Can Dunlap get any help putting a hat on the passer? Can the secondary, which has some aging names, be the same without help for another season? These are questions that will separate the Bengals from contenders and pretenders.

Where do they rank O/U 8.5?

Aside from entering year two after the changing of coordinators I am not sold on the Bengals staff as a whole. Marvin Lewis gets a lot of praise for taking a front office so stingy, and continually putting an average to above average unit on the field, but I tend to expect more. In eleven seasons he is 100-92 with an 0-6 playoff record. It is true that the front office handicaps him and he is stuck with a team that is consistently well below the salary cap, but if you draft well enough you should be able to do more by year twelve. Aside from that is Dalton who can win with what he has, but has lost with more and never seems to step up when the lights are bright. I see them as slightly behind the Steelers and Ravens and tend to think that 9-7 is about where the 2015 Bengals are. While I certainly wouldn’t bet the talent on the team to the under, the schedule is tough and presents tests for Dalton, especially late and on the road. I just can’t bring myself to buy into this team and think they will be fighting for the six seed this season.

Parkers Pick: 3rd in the AFC North, no play

Logans Pick: 3rd in the AFC North, Under