Fantasy Football Break Out Running Backs

Logans Pick: Justin Forsett RB Baltimore Ravens

ustin Forsett may have been the happiest Raven when all of the Ray Rice drama was taking place. Both he and Bernard Pierce saw their workloads increase with the absence of Rice last year and Forsett definitely made the most of his opportunity. Forsett finished 2014 with 235 carries, 1,266 yards and eight touchdowns, compared to only 93 carries for Bernard Pierce, who started last season as the number two back behind Rice. Forsett should look for his workload to increase even more this season since he has solidified himself as the Raven’s top running back option. This season, Lorenzo Taliaferro is listed as the number two option behind Forsett, and Taliaferro only had 68 carries last season. In fact, Pierce and Taliaferro combined for only 658 yards and six touchdowns last season. Expect about half of the carries that were devoted to Pierce and Taliaferro last year to belong to Forsett this season.Offensive coordinator Marc Trestman loves to use his running back as a receiving option. In Chicago, Matt Forte averaged 70 targets a season before Trestman took over and saw his targets increase to an average of 112 targets a season under Trestman. The Ravens don’t have much depth at wide receiver, so expect Forsett to be a receiving threat as well as a solid number one running back. Joe Flacco likes to use his check-downs and take the safe option, so look for Forsett to capitalize. The Ravens’ depth chart lists rookie wide receiver Breshad Perriman, who had problems with dropped passes in college at the University of Central Florida, behind veteran Steve Smith Jr. Smith had a successful relocation last season with 79 receptions and 1,065 yards, but after Perriman, the Ravens list Marlon Brown and Kamar Aiken on their depth chart with only a combined 48 receptions and 522 yards last season between the two of them. Without many options in the passing game, I expect Forsett to be the key player in the Ravens offense this season and to rack up the fantasy points all season long

Daves Pick: Doug Martin Tampa Bay Buccaneers

After a stellar rookie campaign rushing for 1,454 yards, Martin's next two seasons were plagued with injuries and the Muscle Hamster sort of fell off the wheel so to speak. Lovie Smith loves the ground game, and they are going to need to run the football with a rookie QB. He claims he's fully healthy now and ready to tote the rock, and it has shown so far in the preseason. If Martin can stay healthy, he could be a key component to the Bucs winning their division.

Drafting Rounds: 4-6

Parkers Rookie Running Back Report

There are plenty of breakouts and busts when it comes to rookie running backs. I decided to dissect all of the possible names that could sink, or potentially swim the team to shore with a trophy. Lets get into them.

Todd Gurley: The first running back taken in 2015 may have the highest upside and be the best long term player. However I think after this season we will not view him as the top fantasy running back. Recovering from an ACL is a serious procedure for anyone, but for a running back in the NFL it could mean a job in the league or a shoe sales man. The Rams drafted him way to early to put that risk not only on him but on the team. If you miss on your first pick because his first NFL cut ended his career how bad do you feel? I wouldn’t expect Gurley to get snaps until week 6, and I would expect they ease him in. He is a freak athlete, but I am not going to buy him in fantasy.

Melvin Gordon: Gordon is in a great situation. He is the top dog, in a team who has been looking for a workhorse for years now. There is a great chance we walk away from this year saying Gordon is the top fantasy rookie. I currently have him ranked around names like Mark Ingram, Carlos Hyde, and Joseph Randle. I think he has a low floor, but enough of a high upside to take a swing at him when you start to see those names.

TJ Yeldon: Yeldon may not be the best fantasy running back this year, but he is probably in the best situation. With Yeldon being able to not only catch, but be the current best pass protecting running back on the roster is going to be what gets TJ Yeldon all the snaps. In my opinion, Yeldon has higher upside than Gordon in year one, as I see a lot of garbage time stats, and yards from a team looking at what they have in this rookie. I could also see a lower floor for Yeldon because if the offense absolutely cannot move, and is a dumpster fire you are looking at a bust situation for every one. I love the upside and would pull the trigger before Gordon.

Ameer Abdullah: Abudullah is my bet for the top rookie running back. The Lions spent their off season and first round pick juicing up an offensive line, and all signs point to Joe Lombardi running the ball more this season. Spending a second round pick on Abdullah means he is involved this season. It may get tough with Joique Bell, and Theo Riddick throwing their names, but I think Abdullahs talent will prevail and it may take time but he will be the top dog in the backfield by the years end.

Tevin Coleman: Coleman is the definition of risk/reward analysis. On one hand, Kyle Shanahan, son of Mike the running back guru, is drafting this kid in round two so there is anticipation of playing. The risk is that I see Coleman as a change of pace back, and I am unsure of what he will bring beyond straight-line speed and burst. Reports are that he hasn’t broken away from Devonta Freeman, and Antoine Smith, and he won’t get pass protection assignments early. If he can’t beat them out with pure talent I am out. He has the highest upside of the five, but his downside is too low, and I would take all the other rookies before Coleman.

Duke Johnson: I would take Duke Johnson over Coleman. I think the Browns have the perfect role for Johnson, and I think Johnson has a serious chance to lead the team in catches. In a PPR league he up there with Ameer Abdullah as the top dog, but with Isaiah Crowell getting all the inside carries, I think Johnson has a floor. I tend to go with the upside though because Crowell will play in tight games concerning clock control, but if this team is down (which I expect) it will be cheap yards with Duke and company, and true fantasy sleeper. I would look to him in year one before Todd Gurley.