2015 Cleveland Browns Season Preview

Cleveland Browns

2014 record 7-9

O/U 6.5

Off Season Overview

For the first time since 2012 the Browns haven’t made a head coaching change going into the season. It is also the second season for their new front office, which brings a scent of stability in the air. The team does however bring in their tenth starting quarterback since 2010, and it is a stopgap in new addition Josh McCown. McCown is the starter due to the plan gone wrong in Johnny Manziel, and the team did take precaution by making the move to sign Thadeus Lewis. Lewis is definitely a back up, but on this team I wouldn’t count him out of getting significant snaps this year. The team also added Tramon Williams and Randy Starks for defensive help, and aside from that Brian Hartline and Dwayne Bowe were added in the hopes that all these guys can revive their careers at the same time. Unfortunately for the Browns I don’t think either could match what Josh Gordon would do for this team. Without getting into his loss it is necessary to say this team would look a lot better on paper with him on it. Beside Gordon the team lost Jabaal Sheard, Buster Skrine, Jordan Cameron, Miles Austin, and of course Brain Hoyer, one of five quarterbacks to start in the past two years. Honestly it wasn’t a pretty off season and I think the transition from Hoyer to McCown is a downgrade, but the team can look to what I thought was a strong 2015 draft under Mike Pettine, and if any of the veterans can step up maybe the Browns can be competitive?

Offensive Strengths

The Browns have a clear strength that does give them optimism to build on. This offensive line is absolutely great. Joe Thomas, the third overall pick in 2007 hasn’t missed a start in his career. He is mister reliable and I believe when he hangs it up he has hall of fame consideration. To have that in a left tackles is what the majority of the league strives for, and beside him was another consistent rock since 2009, Alex Mack. I say was because Mack missed his first game in 2014, and proceeded to miss 10 more due to knee surgery. To put Macks’ injury into perspective, in the Browns first five games in which Mack played the team was averaging 146.5 rushing yards per game and held a 3-2 record. From week 5 on without Mack the team grinded out 90 yards per game including 69, 39, and 56 the first three weeks following his injury. Of course the Browns also slid to 4-7 without Mack and if he is healthy I would look to those five games as a bright spot for this team. The line was able to grow without him after some bumps, and Joel Bitonio seems like a legitimate starter at guard for the future after his rookie season. The team also has John Greco, and Mitchell Schwartz to take the right side of the line and it forms arguably the best offensive line in football. This is without mention that they spent a first round pick on Cameron Erving. Talk about protecting an asset.

The Browns are looking to turn their running game into a key asset and have done so drafting three running backs in two years. Isaiah Crowell to me is the best of the current bunch and represents a downhill power back. The team played merry-go-round with their backs last season and injuries certainly didn’t help his case, but he averaged over four yards per carry and I would look for him to lead the team in carries. Terrance West had his moments, but to me he could be the odd man out. Reports are the team isn’t as high on his work ethic, and he had his injury problems as well, and this may have lead to the drafting of Duke Johnson in 2015. First, to me, Duke Johnson is just undoubtedly better than West, and he is also a more typical change of pace guy that suits the status of playing next to Crowell. Johnson should see a lot of third down work, and now sliding West into a back up role gives this team depth it has almost no where else on the team. I have to throw in Andrew Hawkins to the team strengths category because it is about to get ugly and I would feel bad grouping him with the other parts of the offense.

Offensive Weaknesses

I have absolutely no faith in this passing game. Thomas can protect McCowns blind side as well as he wants, but McCown is not going to win this team games. When McCown started the Bucs went 1-10 in 2014 and his 11:14 TD to INT ratio isn’t far off from his career 61:59. The teams’ only hope to win is if Johnny Manziel were to somehow blow up, but I feel like he is still a ways away from starting any games this season. This is not to mention that Duke Johnson is arguably the second best receiver to Andrew Hawkins on the team. Brian Hartline started 16 games for Miami last season and averaged 2.4 catches a game as well as 2 TDs in the whole year. He is now pegged in to the #2 spot behind Hawkins. Hawkins is a strong possession receiver but hasn’t proven he has a complete game and would be a strong option on a good team in the slot. However, this team has Taylor Gabriel as a decent slot option, so it thrusts Hawkins into being the top dog, and a lighter workload for corners who are used to the Dez Bryants and Demaryius Thomas’ of the world. I won’t even get into Dwayne Bowe, because if he couldn’t care on the Chiefs, why would this guy care to try for the Browns. The tight end situation might be worse than Dwayne Bowes’ recent play and the upside on the depth chart is somewhat bleek. I would keep an eye out for Terrell Pryor, as he is the most athletic player on the WR depth chart, and may be a project for the future, but at the same time may progress more than we think. Without counting on Pryor this unit will be looking at 5’7” 180 pound Andrew Hawkins to carry the 22nd most efficient passing game in 2014 and somehow improve it.

Defensive Strength

The team’s defensive strengths are about as obvious to point out as their offensive strength. While the team cannot pass worth a lick, they sure can stop the pass. Joe Haden has basically been what this defense has hung its hat on for the past five seasons. He is in the top tier of corner backs and his athleticism is my favorite attribute of his. In losing Buster Skrine the Browns added Tramon Williams and I would call that almost a wash and would lean to the thought that the Browns improved here. That is significant for a team that was able to rank 2nd in the league in passing efficiency despite almost no pass rush. The team also a couple second year kids looking to make a name this season including their former top ten pick Justin Gilbert. If Gilbert, or Pierre Desir can take a step forward this unit may be just as good if not better than the year before. Tashaun Gipson has handled his own as the starting free safety since 2012, and he really helps a sure tackler like Donte Whitner, who may not be as fleet of foot as he was once. It is tough to pick holes on this back end as a hole and I think they should be a top tier secondary in 2015 as well.

Defensive Weakness

Being set in the secondary for now and the future should leave this team time to take a hard look at their front 7. Phil Taylor is the teams’ best player in that front, but the drafting of Danny Shelton asks if he will be involved in the future. I think the team will try to shift him to the outside a little bit and see if he can be a flexible D lineman in a 3-4 defense. Desmond Bryant and Randy Starks are nice pieces to have especially when considering depth, but neither are blow away talents and neither should be in the Browns five-year plan. The front in 2014 ranked 31st in rushing efficiency and the team ranked 27th in sacks. While I love the Shelton pick he certainly does not just make all that go away. The problem in the sacks should go on the pass rushing linebackers but is this a group you can trust going forward? Barkeivious Mingo is the only upside but has struggled to stay healthy and currently is recovering from surgery as I write this. Outside of him is Paul Kruger, who did have a good 2014, but with that put up 35% of the teams sack production. The team drafted Nate Orchard who should get a shot but the entire linebacker unit is in flux, outside of Kruger.

Where do they rank O/U 6.5

The Browns have not won three division games in one season since 2008. In that seven-year span the Browns have averaged 1.2 division wins per year. Their QB situation is far from clear and until it gets that way they appear locked into fourth place in the division and I think 2 division wins this year would be the best situation. If you give them two they would have to go 5-5 in their remaining ten games, and with road games in St Louis, San Diego, Seattle, Kansas City it is hard to find one win there. Home games against The Cardinals and Broncos may be the straws that break the camels back and I think they will have to win only one or two of those six, but are you betting on that? I wouldn’t and I think the odds favor that they may loss all six, and if not that leaves games against the Jets, 49ers, Titans and Raiders that they would absolutely have to sweep to get this over in my opinion. Even that is a stretch and as of this moment I have this team at 5-11 and would take the under.

Parkers Pick 4th in the AFC North, Under 6.5 wins

Logans Pick 4th in the AFC North, under 6.5 wins