Baltimore Ravens 2015 Season Preview

Baltimore Ravens

2014 record: 10-6

Over/Under 9 wins

Off Season overview

While most teams gear up for free agency the Ravens are already fully invested in the draft. The Ravens seem to have a system of letting player’s walk and having younger guys fully ready to take the load with out ever over spending in free agency. This year they did similar by letting Torrey Smith, Owen Daniels, and Pernell McPhee walk. They also traded Haloti Ngata to relive cap space, but of course the Ravens had saw this coming and drafted his replacement in the second round of the 2014 draft. Ngata is a huge loss in the terms that he is a guy you usually associate the Ravens defense of the past decade with, but the Ravens do have personnel to survive the move. Guys like Kyle Arrington and Matt Schaub were added as depth pieces, and the Ravens, like their rival Steelers seem to go through this off-season almost every year. You never expect to hear from them outside of the draft, but they usually do well there and are always fielding a completive team.

Offensive Strengths

This isn’t the fantasy football post but here is my chance to tell you that Justin Forsett is probably going to be a league winner for a lot people this year. The Ravens added Marc Trestman to replace Gary Kubiak, and while Kubiak helped Forsett obtain 43% of his career rushing yard total in just one of his seven NFL seasons, Trestman may take that and run even more. I am not saying he will definitely match or exceed his 1266 yards in 2014, but watching Trestman in Chicago makes me think we will be seeing a career high in catches and yards when it comes to receptions for Forsett. Trestman loves to throw to running backs and used Matt Forte for two seasons to be the teams’ top receiving threat. Forte is a strong receiver to begin with but he averaged 70 targets per season in his first five years and the next two averaged 112 targets under Trestman. Forsett isn’t young at age 29, but he also has never had a full workload until last season, and I would expect he is the primary player in the offense. He also has in front of him one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. Quarterback Joe Flacco was the least sacked Quarterback in the NFL in 2014 and while Kubiak deserves credit the line was assembled to be successful. They have veterans across the board and have done well at trimming the fat. Speaking of Flacco he is as much of strength as he is a weakness depending on what week you are talking about but he always saves his best for the big games. He also is coming off of his best statistical season in 2014, and I see Trestman as a guy who is a much better offensive coordinator than a head coach. After a successful year under Kubiak all around I think an underrated move the Ravens made was bring in Matt Schaub to be Flaccos back up. Schaub is a veteran and a “pros pro” and also spent most of his career under Kubiak. He can help Flacco as well as Trestman find strengths and weaknesses between systems and is a good vet back up to have.

Offensive Weaknesses

The rest of the skill position players are certainly questionable. I really hope Steve Smith isn’t reading this because I would never want him to know I am calling him weak in any way shape or form. He managed to grind out yet another 1000-yard season, 8th of his career, but at age 36 you have to expect it to slow down at some point. He had his highs and few lows last season and will not be the weakness of this team but he can’t carry a unit and he may have to do so again in 2014. Behind Smith in the receiving core is Breshard Perriman and Marlon Brown. Perriman is a first round pick and should be thrust in a right away. I wasn’t as high on Perriman as others and saw him as a deep threat only, which may play well with Flaccos arm, but I don’t expect him to jump right in and replace Torrey Smiths statistics. Brown has trouble staying healthy and is tall, but not an elite athlete. There isn’t too much to get excited about when it comes to the depth of this unit either, and this will be something to monitor. Dennis Pitta is on the roster but has played seven games in the last two seasons, and has seriously considered retirement. I just can’t expect him to be healthy, just like I cannot expect any rookie tight end to make a big jump to a top receiving threat. Maxx Williams was great value in round two but I wouldn’t be looking to him to take all of Pittas’ success in year one quite yet. Not even guys like Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham were able to have strong rookie seasons, and tight end is one of the harder positions to transition to the NFL and be successful at. Forsett should pick up slack in the passing game but there may be a lot to pick up and they are one injury away from being in a lot of trouble at the receiver position.

Defensive Strengths

The Ravens offensive front is a big strength and the defensive front is just as strong. The Ravens were the 5th most efficient defense against the run last season and while Ngata is a Ravens legend but he is not the key reason as to why. Brandon Williams established himself as an immovable object at the nose, and with the now second year Timmy Jernigan and veteran Chis Canty forms a strong front three. Terrell Suggs has averaged nine sacks per year in his long career, but his greatest strength is his ability to move all over the field and create a very adaptable defense. Suggs, like his teammate Elvis Dumervil can put their hand down and rush as an edge rusher, can stand up as an outside line backer and at times drop into coverage. Dumervil was once a stud but will now spell Suggs as well as Courtney Upshaw, who is the best of the three in coverage. The middle linebackers are set as well with veteran Daryl Smith playing the BUCK and helping against the rush and the 2014 rookie of the year with 99 solo tackles, CJ Mosley who plays the MACK role. The Ravens were the 8th best defense in terms of efficiency and may just be progressing as young players are growing into starting roles as well as depth everywhere. Guys like Dumervil, Arthur Brown and rookies Carl Davis and Za’Darius Smith are names to look out for as depth pieces that keep this team fresh.

Defensive Weaknesses

Despite the Ravens ranking 2nd in the league in team sacks in 2014 they still were not able to be in the top half of teams in terms of efficiency against the pass. Jimmy Smith is expected to be the number one guy and while he has shown flashes, he only has 24 career starts and is coming off an injury into this season. Lardarius Webb is expected to start beside him, but his last couple of years have been injury filled, and also on the decline and he is the biggest question mark on the defensive side of the ball. Kyle Arrington may be a nice slot corner, but I have to wonder why the Patriots would have cut him this offseason. Asa Jackson gives them some depth as he has started before, but this is not the premier group, and Smith really needs to step up and carry the unit if they want to be great. The safety position is the worst on the team however, and it was solidified with the news that their third year safety Matt Elam is now sidelined for the season with bicep surgery. Will Hill and Kendrick Lewis step in as the starters and both are known at this point in their careers as rotational players. There is little depth now without Elam and that was a devastating blow to the secondary prospects as a whole. Thankfully they have that pass rush because they will need it.

Where do they rank O/U 9?

The Ravens were about as close to the Seahawks were to beating the champion Patriots and they bring back a good portion of their core. The pieces they lost seemed ready to be replaced internally and I trust this front office and coaching staff more than I would trust most teams. The Ravens schedule plays out nice as both of their West Coast trips are in successive weeks, which means less travel for them, and I feel as though 9 may be the floor for this team. 8-8 would be a disappointment for where this team is and I currently have them pegged to win 10 games this season and while 9 is high to bet a team over I would certainly entertain it if I like what I see from some youngsters in the pre season. As far as winning the division I think it will come down to the Ravens and the Steelers. With the recent Martavis Bryant suspension I think they could certainly see themselves winning the division, but either way I would be looking for the Ravens back in the playoffs in 2015.

Parkers Pick: 2nd in the AFC North Over 9 wins

Logans Pick: 2nd in the AFC North Over 9 wins