Houston Texans 2015 Season Preview

Houston Texans

2014 record 9-7

O/U 8.5

Off season overview

The most telling move of the Texans off-season is the decision Andre Johnson made. Johnson, who spent his first 11 seasons in Houston demanded a trade before season eleven, and bolted to the greatest competition in the division after that year. For a Texans lifer to move on to the dark side that easily makes me wonder exactly how he feels about that front office, and organization. I also wonder if it could just be for all the years he never saw top tier QB play that he finally had enough and joined the top up and comer. The team acted quickly for replacements signing Cecil Shorts, Nate Washington and drafting Jaelen Strong. Deandre Hopkins is now the top threat, and has probably passed Johnson in terms of talent and upside, and now the wide receiver unit may be deeper than Andre has ever seen. While the team went with small names to replace Johnson, they went big to ensure their great strength being their defensive line with the Vince Wilfork signing. One thing I have mentioned I am wary on is when respected front offices let veteran players over the age of 30 walk without an offer. At worst however, I would say he provides depth and creates a matchup problem on paper. Aside from Wilfork the Texans added Brian Hoyer and Rahim Moore. Both are average veteran players, but both should leave the team in a better situation than last year. The team let Center Chris Myers walk but they seemed prepared to move on and now the Texans head into the off-season with a slightly new look, but some upside.

Offensive Strength

Hopkins absolutely has to be the top offensive threat. With 128 career catches at 15.7 yards per reception rate it is clear this guy is a game breaker and top threat in this offense. It will be interesting to see how the third year wide out responds to not having his veteran teammate Johnson demanding top priority, but as a player he is now more talented his mentor. With Hopkins primed to take off I thought this was a sleeper team in 2015 until I heard the news of Arian Foster. Foster, along with Johnson has been the heart of this team since 2009, and now it is unsure if either will suit up in Texans gear in 2015. At best I would expect Foster around week 6, the question is will it be in time to turn the season around because he is needed. The offensive line is the teams’ greatest strength and they were prime to run behind it. The loss of Myers was basically a force out by the hype that Xavier Sua-Filo has created as a starting guard in this league. Recent history has shown the Texans to have a strength on their line and to consistently have replacements by the time the back ups appear ready to fall off. They did so again and you can argue this is a top five unit, especially built to run the ball. The question will be can they effectively run the ball enough to stay in games.

Offensive Weakness

The strengths aren’t plentiful and are in the hands of a 28 year old who has missed eleven games in the past two seasons. This team simply has not won with Foster in the past and I am unsure they have the personnel to win without him today. Since 2010, the Texans are 33-20 when Foster starts and 2-13 when he is inactive. The teams’ points per game also shrank from 23.7 to 19.4 and the teams’ yards per rush shrank from 4.35 to 4.06. Whoever said running backs were a dime a dozen hasn’t seen the Texans running back situation. A committee of Alfred Blue, Chris Polk, and Jonathan Grimes will look to bandage the wound until Foster is ready to return and I don’t know which one I would tell you to hang your hat on. Brian Hoyer will have to open up the pass game with the absence of Foster, and while Hopkins should help, Hopkins will also need help. Hoyer may be better than what the three combined quarter backs the Texans tossed out last year, but he screams mediocrity. His 19:19 career TD:INT rates as well as his 7.2 career yards per attempt rate and can testify to what he is. When things go right Hoyer can keep you in games but if boxes are stacked, and the un-mighty trio is pumping out little, can Hoyer put this team over the edge? My answer is no and this team will have to roll with Ryan Mallet this season if they want any upside. While Mallet has upside and the look of a QB, I still tend to wonder why the Patriots would unload him for a late 7th round pick? He also couldn’t beat out Ryan Fitzpatrick last season, and while he is still young I just don’t see him being the answer. The Texans are stuck with a good roster and a bad QB and that is somewhere most teams really hate to be.

Defensive Strengths

The Texans will be looking to win a lot of 17-10 games and it could happen with this defense. First, is there is even a need to get into JJ Watt? If you don’t think he is the best player in the game you are watching a different game. He lines up everywhere, produces across the board, and yes he even plays offense. Watt helped lead the Texans to the ranking of 6th most efficient defense in 2014 and as mentioned additions have been made. Away from his running mate Vince Wilfork freeing up space for him, the team has two-second year defenders who didn’t have a rookie impact due to injury. Jadeveon Clowney, the former number one pick appears to be healthy and ready to live up to his hype. Questions are plentiful on the high upside South Carolina product, but he will be a fun watch. Louis Nix, drafted in round three will get the luxury of rotating in behind Wilfork. Nix would have been a first round pick had he not been rehabbing an ACL that had him miss his entire 2014 campaign. The Texans have played everything safe with him and have high expectations for Nix and really hope he can hit the ground running. If he can rotate in and provide depth on the defensive line this front will be one of the toughest in the league. Aside from the great front line the secondary has some nice talent, and ranked 6th in the league in efficiency against the pass. JJ Watt helps against the pass, but so does two sufficient corner backs. Jonathan Joseph is no longer a top tier player but he is still an above average veteran and Kareem Jackson is about in the same class himself. The team drafted Kevin Johnson in the first round this season, and while I think he can eventually play the outside corner spot, I think in year one his best option was a high end slot option anyway. If he can man the slot the team should have excellent secondary play for another year, and should have a bright future at the position as well. The team swapped out safeties, and I see it as a lateral move, but with some big name pieces already in place, these safeties just need to keep their role for this to be another great defense in Houston.

Defensive Weaknesses

The linebacker core, and overall depth is not the strongest, and could hold the unit back. Brian Cushing played in 14 games in 2014, which is more than he played in 2012, and 2013 combined. Cushing looked like he lost a step with all the injuries and that is bad news for the Texans. Cushings’ 41 tackles in 2014 is only five more than his 2013 mark, in which he played seven less games. If Cushing cannot be what he once was we are now looking at a somewhat depleted unit. Clowney is a pass rushing linebacker in the 3-4 defense, but he will not be doing any coverage. This leaves guys like Cushing, Mike Mohamed, and Max Bullough to be playing a lot off the ball. There just isn’t much name value here considering Cushing, and across from Clowney is a rotation of below average pass rushers. Clowney, who hasn’t been his full self in about two years cannot afford to go down or this team is depleted in the linebacker core. The safety depth is ugly, and the corner depth needs Johnson to be what he is expected to be, because they would need to dig deep otherwise. The defense has mass amounts of talent as a hole, but I feel as though it is an air mattress, and that one small prick of a hole can cause too many sleepless nights for a team to live through.

Where do they rank O/U 8.5

The Texans have finished in the top two of the AFC South every year since 2010. I expect them to maintain their rank in the top two of the division. The team has a strong head coach, a good defense and an offensive line, but somehow they still remain a large step behind the Indianapolis Colts. It is a QB driven league and Andrew Luck just shatters the glimmer that Brian Hoyer can hope to bring. When looking at the schedule I think if this team gets off to a slow start their season is over. Weeks 12-16 they host the Saints, go at Buffalo, vs. the Patriots, and at Indy to finish off what will be the most telling stretch of their year. They may be out of the running by then, but that could either be the dagger, or the run that propelled them to a wild card game. I tend to think that if they don’t start hot they will be climbing an uphill battle by that point and may be looking toward next year. If they cannot win without Foster, which they have not historically done I see them peaking at 8-8 and would lean toward this team being 7-9. If where I see the peak being a half game to the under I have to side with the under on this one and this will be a move that I will be making.

Parkers Pick: 2nd in AFC South, Under 8.5 wins

Logans Picks 2nd in the AFC South, Under 8.5