Indianapolis Colts 2015 Season Preview

Indianapolis Colts

2014 record: 11-5

O/U 11

Off Season Overview

Reggie Wayne has not yet retired but it should be of note that the future hall of famer will not be on the Colts roster for the first time since 2001. The Patriots decided to kick the tires on Wayne but the Colts knew it was time to move on, and the receiver looks well past his prime. To replace him, the Colts decided to load up on receivers in the off-season. Andre Johnson is another all time great and two years younger than Wayne. Aside from Johnson the team added Duron Carter from the CFL who has break out potential, as well as drafting a wide out in the first round. The team realizes it is time to win now, and added to the offense with another veteran all time great Frank Gore. Todd Heramans adds at least three big time names to the new starting lineup. It doesn’t stop with the offense. The team also went out and got a pass rusher that was very needed in Trent Cole. Cole, like the crew is a veteran at age 32. Nate Irving, Kendall Langford, and Dwight Lowery are more additions, and Lowery and Langford are expected to be starters. Neither flash but both are veterans who know their role. Aside from Wayne, Ahmad Bradshaw, Corey Redding, and Hakeem Nicks are no longer on the roster. It isn’t an influx of young talent but really you have to love what the Colts did this off-season. When you have a young QB like Andrew Luck every year from now until he retires is a must win year and the Colts adding all these vets to the young talent they already believe in is the perfect compliment coming off an AFC Championship loss. While sometimes you hate to ride the “winners” of free agency, you have to say they loaded up for a run this year. The team still has some flaws and questions but the buzz is loud in Indianapolis.

Offensive Strengths

Time to give away my NFL MVP pick and that is Andrew Luck. Luck has averaged 4,319 yards per season in his 3-year career, and now the team has all of these additions to play with Luck. Luck has come up with his two tight ends, Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen, as well as Reggie Wayne, and TY Hilton. Wayne has missed 11 of Lucks 48 career regular season games, but as mentioned his loss will be an easy fix in Andre Johnson. Johnson is an upgrade in almost every way, especially in his physical ability. Luck is a gunslinger, and no knock to Reggie Wayne intended, but Johnsons’ ability to grab balls in traffic or in tight holes is better. Luck has his tight ends still, he has TY Hilton who just signed a big time deal to be the top threat and he even has even more. Donte Moncrief enters his second season and while his rookie campaign was a roller coaster, he still has upside to compete for the second outside spot, assuming Hilton is the typical slot guy. Moncreif will have to beat Carter who is a complete unknown at this point, but has the genes and the tape to be a presence in this offense. Now you throw in the fact that this team actually drafted another wide receiver in the first round. Phillip Dorsett has a lot of TY Hilton attributes, and given that those two are now signed to the longest deals in the offense, there is a good chance they expect one of the two to play the outside a lot more than I would have expected. I think in the slot Hilton is one of the toughest wide outs to defend in the game, so who plays across from Johnson will be very interesting to see. Either way they are all an upgrade for Luck this season, and we haven’t even dug into Frank Gore. Gore may be 32, but coming off of three injury free seasons, and four straight 1000-yard campaigns, it is tough to ignore the tank. Trent Richardson led the team in carries in 2014 with 159, and produced a lowly 3.3 yards per carry. In comparison however, Dan Herron and Ahmad Bradshaw were able to produce a 4.6 yards per carry mark in their combined 168 attempts. What this tells me is that Trent Richardson has no idea how to be a running back, but also that Gore, and his career 4.5 yards per carry could easily do the same, if not better this season. The Colts were not efficient last season but wow did they put up stats. They will be able to put up stats again, and I think a solid starter like Gore, over the rotation of names, and the rotation of talented names at wide receiver can only point to this offense getting better.

Offensive Weaknesses

The Andrew Luck love is in the air, but I cannot forget that with his gaudy staring down the blitz plays, he also has his “what were you thinking” interceptions. Luck was sixth in the league with 16 picks in 2014, and while he is never going to be one to be gun shy, it will be something he needs to work on if this team wants to make the trip over the hump. The offense could also use some help from the offensive line to live up to the potential it could be. I like the prospects of Jake Mewhort, as well the addition of Herramans, but the rest of the unit is questionable. Anthony Costanzo specifically needs to make a big move this season, in which is a contract year for him. His job is to protect the blind side, and he is usually the reason why Andrew Luck is making the incredible plays you have to scratch your head at. Luck never has much time in the pocket, and if he can get clean pockets it should lower the interceptions in a major way. In all this will be an offense competing with the likes of Pittsburgh, and Green Bay as the top units in the league, but they will go nowhere with a shaky offensive line.

Defensive Strength.

Vontae Davis is the Colts shining star and he needs to help carry this unit. Davis is one of three corner backs to be targeted at least 80 times and not give up a touch down. Davis also recorded four interceptions, amassing 33% of the teams’ picks. Teams can test Davis but week in and week out Davis a top tier corner back and a shut down guy at that. As for the rest of the secondary, Laron Landry is suspended for the season and while he is just an average safety and Dwight Lowery may be slightly better, the rest is an average unit helped by Davis. Aside from Davis this team will look at this defensive line stopping the run to be the most important piece. I would call their defensive line average, but they knew it was important as they added Henry Anderson through the draft and Langford. Langford can start right away, but I really like Andersons’ upside and think he is a rotational man in 2014 at the defensive end spot. Arthur Jones and Josh Chapman are very big men and both are pieces in which are tough to move. Most of these guys fit the 3-4 scheme in which they are anchors who clog offensive lines, freeing up space for the line backers to attack the quarter back. The question now becomes can anyone attack the quarterback?

Defensive Weakness

The team has some names at outside linebacker but I really need to see someone step up this season. Jonathan Newsome led the team in sacks in 2014, and he isn’t even expected to start. Trent Cole is basically taking his spot, and while Cole has the name pedigree, he only put 6.5 sacks in 2014, which would tie Newsome. You can argue that the scheme in which Chip Kelly ran was not conducive for Cole to get his stats, but as mentioned he is on the wrong side of 30, and I think his best days are behind. Robert Mathis could be the defenses second best player by the end of the year, but between the PED suspension, 2014 season ending surgery, and now at age 34 it makes him a complete wild card moving forward. Erick Walden brought 6 sacks himself and will start but he is what he is at this point, and that is the safety blanket to take snaps from Mathis. Bjoern Werner, a 2013 draft pick is the only hope for upside but I just don’t see it. He doesn’t seem to have the football know with all to be successful at consistently getting to the passer, and the team may have a hole for this year and more to come. The middle linebackers can do their part, but D’Qwell Jackson, like a lot on this team has his best days behind him, and while Jerrell Freeman and Nate Irving are nice depth names nothing wows you on this defense as a whole.

Where do they rank O/U 11

You can say all that you want about any holes in this team but if Andrew Luck is healthy the Colts are winning the division. Most divisions are full of parody; this just isn’t one of them. Since Luck has been drafted the Colts are 16-2 in the division and both losses came in his rookie season. I don’t see the trend changing and tend to think they are going to take all six for the third straight season. You can look at the rest of their schedule and I can certainly find five wins, which makes the under a no play. When looking to the over it is hard as I see an 11-5 team here. They do have a couple tough road games, and it is tough to bet on a team when their toughest division competition may finish 8-8. You only have 4 losses to give if you take the over and if this team can find 8 or 9 wins quickly you could see the Colts resting players and slowly creeping to 11 wins. I would give them the division and 11 wins, and would look over at 10.5, but not 11.

Parkers Pick 1st : in the AFC South, over 105, no play at 11

Logans Pick: 1st in the AFC South, Over 10.5 and 11