Jacksonville Jaguars 2015 Season Preview

Jacksonville Jaguars

2014 record 3-13

O/U 5.5

Offseason overview

I have to give GM David Caldwell and head coach Gus Bradley credit. They were given a bottomed out roster and have gone out and tried to make turn this around as quickly as possible. The addition of Julius Thomas was a nice way to say hello to the big dogs of the NFL. Thomas was a touch down machine in Denver, and the Jaguars think they have their guy behind center and now choose to build around him. The Jags also went out and signed Bernard Pierce, Stephan Wisniewski, and Jeremy Parnell in the hopes that all can bring another piece of stability around the young Blake Bortles. Aside from offensive additions the Jags added four new starters on defense through free agency this season, Jared Odrick, Dan Skuta, Davon House, and Sergio Brown. What makes these guys interesting is that Skuta has 22 starts in his six-year career, House has 12 in four years, and Brown has 11 in four years. Odrick got a 16 start season in for the first time in his career, but he looks to be a rotational player in a defense in which Gus Bradley likes to sub out pass rushers. Aside from Thomas the Jags are taking a few lottery shots here and hoping these guys can earn the chance given.

Offensive Strengths

If you are not going to be the big winners of free agency you have to draft well. Doing so has given the team a plethora of talent at the skill positions despite a possible second rounder being a bust due to injures. Marquise Lee has yet to see the field this pre season but the team may have the second year USC products’ replacement in Florida States’ Rashad Greene. Greene is a slot receiver and has wowed at camp and with Lee on the sidelines due to injury I would expect he starts in the slot. The Allens start on the outsides, Hurns and Robinson. Robinson, another second round pick by Jacksonville has more all around game of the two, but Hurns provides a deep threat that helps keep safeties away from the 6’3 Robinson. They both have talent and upside as 2nd year talents and in comes another second round impact pick in rookie TJ Yeldon. Yeldon isn’t a freak athlete, but his footwork is of a professional level already. He also has worked in the passing game and I don’t think it will be long until he is a three down back. Bernard Pierce has apparently pushed Yeldon in camp but I would suspect that when the lights are on that Yeldon is the better of the two. Either way Pierce, as well as Denard Robinson in a change of pace role brings a talented backfield in a lot of different aspects. With all the strong drafting is what makes the Julius Thomas decision a lot smarter than some may think. Thomas has never played 16 games in his career, but as I mentioned he is a big play maker and red zone threat. In comparison, Thomas recorded twelve touchdowns in both of the last two seasons, and that number doubles Hurns’ 6, in which he led his team in 2014. Sure, Thomas no longer has Peyton Manning, but the arsenal is here, and the field should be wide open. All it comes down to is Bortles.

Offensive Weakness

This offensive line really needs work too. Bortles was the most sacked quarterback in 2014 and the line deserves some credit for that. Luke Joeckel has bust potential at this point and two tackles were signed to bring in competition. There is a nice amount of competition and depth, but overall this line needs to take a step forward with Bortles. With the additions in free agency to bolster the depth, it should be mentioned Bortles deserves some blame for being the most sacked QB. A common thing in young quarter backs is to hold on and take a sack rather than throw it away. I saw Bortles look flustered in the pocket enough in year one to know this is something he absolutely needs to improve on in year two. With Blake Bortles being the top quarterback taken in 2014, I feel as though I shouldn’t be so much more excited about Derek Carr and Teddy Bridgewaters’ second season than his. You can point to the fact that Bortles is learning and playing with fellow rookies, and many have been in and out of the lineup, but I see Bridgewater throwing to Charles Johnson and Jarius Wright and completing passes at a 64% clip. Then I see Carr throwing to Rod Streater and James Jones and putting up 3,000 yards and 20 TDs. You now see Bortles with a 58% completion rate and five more interceptions than touchdowns and have to wonder if the Jags made a mistake. I watched the other two progress and learn from mistakes and I saw Bortles do a lot of the same things. The addition of Thomas is absolutely huge for Bortles because now he has a safety blanket to go when he looks flustered and under duress. I would look at this as a huge learning year for Bortles, and would be concerned if he is not progressing as it goes on, especially given who they passed on him for.

Defensive strengths

The team knows what it wants its strength to be, the question will just be how strong? The Jaguars have a plethora of defensive linemen. A lot of these guys have a lot of position flexibility and it seems like Bradley just wants to load up with big boys and win this game with fresh legs in the trenches. The team has Chris Clemons, Andre Branch, Ziggy Hood, Roy Miller, Jared Odrick, and Tyson Alualu. Clemons appears to have been injured at camp, but he expects to be in the rotation by the start of the season. The two names I don’t expect to start the season would have been the two greatest strengths for the team and that is Sen’Derrick Marks and Dante Fowler. Marks claims he will be ready to play the 2015 opener, but after tearing his ACL in week 17 of 2014 I just don’t see that having any sense. Marks had 8.5 sacks in 2014, and at 27, I am not letting my top asset in the middle of his prime risk something career threatening for a team in a rebuild. He apparently has been progressing but I would bet on him to miss at least the first six games this season and be eased into play. Fowler is the former top five pick of this past draft, and I thought for once the Jaguars are getting it right. That all ended with his first practice and he is out for the season with an ACL injury. These two could have made this unit incredibly deep and reasonably strong. Now they are just settling for depth. Telvin Smith is a second year linebacker who should be watched to bring some help to this front seven, but the back end as a hole could really use some work.

Defensive Weakness

As mentioned Dan Skuta, Davon House, and Sergio Brown are big question marks on this defensive unit. The three will have to gel with what is going on, and I personally think Fowler would have eaten into Skutas’ snaps this season. Paul Posluzny was once a stud and a staple of this defense, but coming off a torn pectoral I will have to monitor the now 30-year-old linebacker. The problem is the amount of unproven talent and depth behind Skuta, Posluzny and Smith in the linebacker core.

Jonathan Cyprian enters his third season as the teams starting strong safety and while he is the only bright spot of the secondary, he is already out for the preseason. Teams like the Jaguars cannot afford question marks like Cyprien, Posluzny, and Marks because they are probably the teams’ best players when healthy. When they are out, and they pile on top of a lost season for top five pick it must get frustrating in the meeting rooms in Jacksonville. You look at the draft and see Fowler added to a list of Bortles, and Joeckel with a lot to prove, Justin Blackmon, and Blaine Gabbert no longer with the team, Alualu getting limited snaps, and of course Eugene Monroe who is helping bolster the Ravens offensive line. It is easy to find where the problem is and you just hope Bortles and Fowler can turn this thing around.

Where do they rank and O/U

I hate to kill off a quarterback after one season but I have no faith in Bortles at this point. He would need to make major strides as this team is at least one more year away from being something and that is if things go better than expected. The Jaguars haven’t won 6 games since 2010, and have averaged 3.5 since then. Losing your top pick and adding a tight end isn’t the answer to changing the trend. I hope Gus Bradley gets another chance because he may be onto something; he just needs Bortles to work out. Until I see it I see the Jags splitting with the Titans and ultimately winning three with the potential of four games. This is an under I would definitely take and may be my favorite play of the preseason. I think they compete for the cellar with Tennessee and will pick them to finish 4th due to the injuries around these major names making it too much to swallow and I would feel confident that they ease the future back when the present is so meaningless.

Parkers Pick: 4th in the AFC South, Under 5.5

Logans Pick: 3rd in the AFC south, no play