Kansas City Chiefs 2015 Season Preview

Kansas City Chiefs

2014 record 9-7

2015 O/U 8.5

Off Season Overview

The Chiefs weren’t noisy this off-season but they found a way to be efficient. The addition of Ben Grubbs to me has the chance to be the most important. I am always wary of the over 30 year old player being basically given away, but in this situation I am choosing to trust the tape. I don’t tend to put the Saints front office there with the Packers and Ravens, and I think for a run first team adding a hard nosed Guard that another team saw as a salary dump may end up being a fair swap for both sides. The Chiefs did lose a starting center, but by picking up an all-pro guard gives you a good shot to improve despite the loss. The move that many will say is the biggest is Jeremy Maclin. The Chiefs lost Dwayne Bowe, but Bowe hasn’t really been playing for a few years now and this makes Maclin an automatic upgrade. While the team is run first, having zero receivers with a touch down is a stat you cannot have and be taken seriously in today’s NFL. Rodney Hudson and Bowe were the only two losses of note, so it can be seen as a vanilla offseason, but I think the Chiefs made an improvement in the offensive efficiency due to these moves.

Offensive Strength

As I mentioned the Chiefs are going to win by being a run first team, and a team that will not turn the ball over. Jamaal Charles is going to go down as one of the best running backs of this era. Aside from 2011 in which he tore his ACL Jamaal Charles has reeled off at least 1,000 rushing yards and at least 35 catches every year since 2009. Charles is the focal point of the offense and a game breaker at that. A back up like Knile Davis put the Chiefs in an excellent situation, because when Charles has been dinged up we have seen a reciprocation of do everything ability. To compliment the backs, the Chiefs Alex Smith is the definition of a game manager. He knows it is the Charles show and knows how to find him in the passing game and to not turn it over in the pass. Averaging only 5.7 Interceptions per season is great way to save drives and it keeps linebackers from creeping up as Smith does have the medium level accuracy. He can now use that accuracy to hit striding tight end Travis Kelce. Kelce broke out in 2014 and is now the lone tight end. Kelce was able to amount 512 of his 862 receiving yards after the catch. If he gets the ball in space he is a tough player to drag down, and if the focus is on Charles he may be running free for Smith to connect. This should be the game plan of the offense, and the ability to control the run game and the clock should be what will win this team games.

Offensive Weakness

Another sign of praise for Charles is that of the more elite running backs he does not run behind one of the better offensive lines. As mentioned, Smith is a game manger and knows to throw the ball away, to little blame on him the Chiefs finished 27 in sacks allowed, and the sack was the huge drive ender in Kansas City. Also, while Maclin is better than Bowe, I don’t see wide receivers having big seasons, mainly due to Alex Smith. Smith is the team strength as well as its weakness. The problem is that Smith doesn’t have the game breaking ability. He is a decent runner, but not enough to win games, and he just doesn’t throw deep. On 3rd down, Smith was the only quarter back in the NFL on average to throw the ball behind the amount of yards needed, an average of three yards behind. When the Chiefs get down multiple scores it becomes hard to envision them finding the time and ability to pull off a comeback. It puts a lot more pressure on the defense, and limits their playbook as a whole on offense.

Defensive Strength

The news of Dontari Poe is going be the difference between this team taking a step forward or back ward this season. The Chiefs weren’t rated an above average efficient defense, but finished 3rd in the league in yards allowed. This will show in their next great strength, but also because Poe is just immovable in the center. While yards can be found else where Poe is a house, and turned this defense into the most efficient red zone defense. Poe had offseason back surgery and while he says he will be playing in week 1, I see him on the PUP and missing his first six games. How this team fairs with or without Poe early will be telling as to how good this team is. The defense also can hang in games due to the pass rush. The Chiefs have a trio of pass rushers, including star Justin Houston, and that led the Chiefs to be sixth in the league in sacks. These guy get my respect because they don’t always get the lanes in front of them but Houston, along with Tamba Hali create havoc, and sacks with their skill set. A nose and a group of pass rushers is what every 3-4 team needs to build around and it helped this team be an above average pass defense. The team added to the secondary in the draft and I expect first rounder Marcus Peters to start to start across Phillip Gaines and I think by the end of the season he is the teams’ best corner back. Overall there is core to a strong 3-4 defense.

Defensive Weakness

The depth around these guys is what makes this is a less than average defense as a whole. As I mentioned Poe doesn’t have the ability to move to tackle players, so teams can run to spots where he is isn’t lined up. The Chiefs gave up 4.6 yards per clip and while the bend but don’t break worked in 2014, is that the option you want to betting on? Especially with this Poe injury the Chiefs defensive line looks like one of the worst in the league. Derrick Johnson is a veteran, but entering year ten I think he has started to lose a step, and beside him is a below average Josh Mauga, and a couple of rookies. The safeties I would say are average, and Eric Berry may be a factor that turns the secondary around, but while that is a great story we need to hold off on calling the Chiefs set at safety. Poe already sets this defense back, and if any thing happens to Houston this is an ugly defense. I wonder if they can survive the week in and week out that is the NFL with this many holes in the team depth.

Where do they rank O/U 8.5

As I mentioned in the Broncos post it sets up favorably for them that their first meeting is in Kansas City for week 2. If Poe plays you are getting a rusty Poe at best, and Manning will be as fresh as he will ever be. Aside from the week two home games the schedule puts the Chiefs at Houston, Green Bay, and Cincinnati to start this season. Houston and Cincinnati are run first squads, and Green Bay sure can put it up so this could really put Kansas City behind the eight ball without Poe. All of the sudden we have a team whose quarterback can’t comeback in games, is now trying to turn this season around. It is easy to see a scenario where the Chiefs fight an uphill battle, and while I think they can be competitive for the six seed, I don’t think they can get the Broncos this season. I would rank them third in the division and see them being an eight-win team. I could see injuries getting the best of this team and would definitely be looking to the under here, but all in all I think the Chiefs are a solid team that at the very least knows what they are. While that doesn’t make the Super Bowl contenders, it can keep them competitive in any game.

Parker Pick: 3rd in the AFC West, Under 8.5 wins

Logans Pick: 3rd in the AFC West, Under 8.5 wins