San Diego Chargers 2015 Season Preview

San Diego Chargers

2014 record 9-7

O/U 8

Off Season overview

Despite an off season of rumors involving the team location and the franchise quarterback not a lot changed in San Diego this off season. The team did sign Phillip Rivers, but lost his career long center Nick Hardwick in the process. This leaves a player with five career starts to take his place. Those starts were Rivers five most recent as well so at least something was there before training camp. Orlando Franklin comes in to camp ready to contend with his former team in Denver. Franklin should be one of the better linemen on the Chargers this year and is an immediate starter at guard. Stevie Johnson should also be looked at as a starter in this San Diego offense. He was brought in to replace Eddie Royal in that slot role, and is probably an all around better wide out than Royal. Patrick Robinson, Jacoby Jones, and Joe Barksdale round out names we may see on the Chargers this year, and losses include Ryan Mathews, Dwight Freeny, Sharece Wright, and Marcus Gilchrist. While Wright for Robinson is a lateral move, Freeney and Gilchrist were replaced in a youth movement to cut costs, and both leave a couple unproven holes at key spots. All in all it was an average off-season for the Chargers, who really feel as though they have their core already.

Offensive Strength

It is easy to feel comfortable with Phil Rivers as your QB. It is also probably easy to feel queasy. Rives is a gunslinger but he is one of the best and you can’t hate his gamer mentality. Rivers’ first six games of 2015 consisted of fifteen touchdowns and only two interceptions. His favorite target his entire career, Antonio Gates admitted for him later that he eventually played the last seven or eight games with at least a cracked rib. He seems to be all doctored up and ready to go for 2015 and I tend to love his prospects. Rivers has thrown for 4,000 years in six of his last seven seasons and I could see the gunslinger pull it out again in 2015. I think the additions made to the offensive line are serious contributions as well. If Chris Watt can plug in at center, and gel with Rivers this off-season there shouldn’t be any other holes on the line when healthy. They were an average team in efficiency sacks, and turnovers, but this is what you get with Rivers, but with Rivers you are in plenty of games.

Offensive Weaknesses

I think that Rivers is going to have to be great this year to carry the unit, but I honestly don’t think this is new to him. For Rivers, guys like Eddie Royal, Vincent Brown, Legedu Naanee have become house hold names. For once the team did draft a running back, and with Franklin they appear ready to run. Gordon was a decent prospect, but I am unsure of him in the NFL. Wisconsin running backs seem to always have holes, and when it comes to vision, it will be the biggest test for Gordon. Pass protection is also not preached up in Badger land and it leaves him off the field in obvious plays. This sets snaps aside for Danny Woodhead as a better receiving threat, but it will be interesting to see the transition. The Chargers look like they hope to run more investing in the first round, and I just hope they didn’t miss with TJ Yeldon, and Ameer Abdullah still on the board. In the passing game, you have the typical for Rivers, a group of average receivers and Antonio Gates. Only this time Gates is suspended for four games for PEDs. It is tough to say that Gates will age with Rivers and the year will come soon that he isn’t the safety blanket of choice. Ladarius Green will get his turn, and while he has the size, he doesn’t have the consitency I can trust. Speaking of untrustworthy, Malcolm Floyd played sixteen games for the first time in his career, which started in 2003 last year. At 34 now I don’t expect a full season and I don’t expect a better per game rate than last year. Rivers top two options should be Stevie Johnson, and Keenan Allen. They are both framed differently and completely different athletes, but both are possession receivers in their own way. It is basically a group of skill players that Rivers can dink and dunk and have an occasional deep ball. All together it may be a favorable unit, but with all the questions no wonder the Chargers signed Rivers to find some stability here.

Defensive Strengths

The defensive line is set for the future in Kendall Reyes and Corey Liguiet. Drafted in 2012, and 2011 respectively, both are entering their prime at about this time, and while neither will show up on the depth chart every week, these are space eaters, who can eat up, at times multiple linemen. Liguiet, is the mauler of the two and can typically expect a double team. Aside from the defensive line the secondary has to be their next great strength. Eric Weddle can pretty much do anything you ask. He can play in the box, can play center field, can play in man and can stop the run. You can argue Weddle is the most complete safety in the NFL. In front of him is what could be the breakout tandem of 2015. Brandon Flowers is known is a #1 corner back in this league. He gets to handle the left side of the field, and second year phenom Jason Verett takes the right. Verett doesn’t have much tape to go, playing in only six games before season ending rotator cuff surgery, but he looks like a complete package at corner with athletic upside. Adding Patrick Robinson to swap inside and outside with Verett is a smart move for the Chargers as Verett is probably better in the slot than outside on wide outs bigger than the 5’10” TCU product. There is a question as to who will play beside Weddle, but they just need to be average to keep this secondary from being a big step forward if healthy.

Defensive Weaknesses

The pass rush has plenty of upside but it needs to show itself now. Melvin Ingram has been waiting to breakout for about two years now. He has the talent, he just hasn’t been healthy enough to see what he is. After only three stats in his first two years he was able to put in nine games and what would extrapolated out to eight sacks in 2014, and if he can improve on that they are looking at something. The question can he ever do that or are we always saying “yeah, but Ingram is back this year.” Jeremiah Attoachu will be starting and he is a former 2nd round pick but produced only two sack and was unable to play much even without Ingram late. He now needs to replace Dwight Freeny and I am unsure how exactly he plans on doing that. Due to this teams youth at linebacker, Manti Teo included, there is upside, but none of those three have been able to prove that they will be significant forces in the NFL yet. That is what is keeping this team from being a top ten type of defense that people will begin to fear.

Where do they rank O/U 8

The schedule makers were not kind to the Chargers. They gave the California based team four 10 am starts Pacific Time, including what will be a huge division game in Kansas City. Their road game in Oakland is also the Raiders only prime time home game, and they snuck up and beat the Chiefs at home on Thursday Night Football last year. Since 2010, the Chargers have averaged 8.4 wins per season, and this looks like an 8.4 win team. I think 8-8 is mostly likely but there is always that chance they sneak up and win eight this season. If the front seven can make progress this team will eclipse the over and I wouldn’t tell you not to do it, but I would say it would be a tough proposition to think they win much less than 7 games. If I had to choose, this team is tied again with Kansas City, and is 8-8. Of the two however, I think the Chargers have a better shot at the playoffs.