Philadelphia Eagles 2015 Season Preview

Philadelphia Eagles

2014 record 10-6

2015 O/U 9.5

Off Season Overview

I am going to save you guys the overview, and tell you to check out a piece done by our own David Duhaim on the site back on April 3rd. One thing I will add is that the Eagles may look completely different had Frank Gore not gone all Deandre Jordan this spring. The Eagles intended on Gore to be their guy and within 24 hours of his flip-flop, they signed both DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews. To me it doesn’t speak highly of their faith in either, when they were plan B, and included as a package deal. His post was also pre draft and didn’t mention that first round pick Nelson Agholor today isn’t much worse of a receiver than Jeremy Maclin, which makes the Maclin loss almost nothing. All in all the Eagles have a high amount of volatility this season and the big question of the system or the player may have a strong argument after this year in Philly.

Offensive Strength

The big news in Philadelphia is the new starting quarterback, but I would make the argument that if the Eagles O shines it is the skill players that make this offense motor tick. First you do have to look at Chip Kelly. Whether he has any idea on how to connect with NFL players or not is a completely different argument, but X’s and O’s this guy is legitimate. His theories can pay off, and his ability to speed up-tempo and plays called is a strength in Philadelphia. The Eagles did well accommodating their philosophy by adding a plethora of skill players to choose from. It starts with what is now a three-headed monster at running back. Whether it be Gore, Murray, or Matthews being signed it is clear the Eagles craved a down hill runner. Murray and Matthews will see plenty of touches, but neither has had the healthiest and an uptick for Murray would be unheard of, and Matthews has proven he shouldn’t lead a team in carries. Rotating them both in and out of the backfield should help a strong run game, as well as Darren Sproles. Sproles is the ultimate change of pace back and he will get his usage on third and long. Either way all three guys are professional runners and the rotation theory should keep all of them fresh. The Eagles will be rotating tight ends Zach Ertz and Brent Celek based on their strengths and weaknesses and hope to get the best of both worlds. Ertz, the receiver of the two can lineup in the slot and create mismatches, Celek the blocker, can stay tight and help in the run game. It isn’t to say that Celek cannot catch, and Ertz cannot block, but more that the scheming options are plentiful here. The Eagles also have drafted well at the wide receiver position to set them up in more versatile roles. Jordan Matthews and Nelson Agholor will be the ones taking the majority of Jeremy Maclins 143 targets in 2014. Matthews saw 103 targets himself and I thought he thrived in the role he was in as a rookie. He is a bigger body receiver but I think his possession skills are what sets him apart. Matthews should see an uptick in targets in 2015, but I would expect Agholor to see the most of Maclins targets. Matthews will be a great number two receiver for years, but Agholor, this year first round pick has top dog upside. His footwork and ability to move after the catch is probably already on par with Maclin, and I think the entire time the Eagles had their eyes on Agholor in round 1. Kelly, who coached at Oregon, knows a lot about USC, and I think he sees what I see in that Agholor has big time playmaker abilities. Depth guys like Riley Cooper (who is a great blocker), Josh Huff (slot deep threat), and even the old vet Miles Austin may help a mostly inexperienced crew. I think it is safe to say the offense improved in potentially all areas, but the QB position may still be the differentiator between a success and failure.

Offensive Weakness

Trading for Sam Bradford was the most talked about thing when it came to Chip Kelly. He traded an injured quarterback coming off a 27:2 TD to INT ratio for an injured quarterback who threw 21 touchdowns just once in his career. Don’t get me wrong Sam Bradford, when healthy is better than Nick Foles, my question is just how good is Bradford? Nobody really knows this, and while it doesn’t show in the statistics, a 2012 Bradford is a much better all around player than Foles has showed in the NFL. I think Foles was the beneficiary of a scheme and I think Kelly knew. The classic sell high strategy got Chip to his potential guy and I want to give him the benefit of the doubt, but Sam Bradford is a tough buy for me. The reason I bring up his 2012 is because he hasn’t played a full season since then. He also has a career completion % of 58. You can say he never had playmaker help, but I say he cannot stay on the field! Tearing an ACL twice in one calendar year doesn’t bare well, and just passed the one year mark of his second tear. He isn’t a runner, but how do we know what his knees can stand? If this team has to turn to Mark Sanchez, last years record is a best-case scenario and this team could be worse. Sanchez had some mystique in his new role while covering for the injured Foles last year, but by years end we all saw the old Sanchez who just cannot hang on to the football. Agholor, Matthews, and the gang can simplify things in the pass game, but there is almost a 50/50 chance this pass game is rendered weak before the young ballers even get off the ground.

Defensive Strength

While all the talk is on the offense, it was actually the defense that was more efficient in 2014. The unit made some big changes and Kiko Alonso makes the middle linebacker crew excellent. Alonso was a rookie of the year, who played for coach Kelly in college, and is now coming back from ACL surgery, 13 months after his procedure. Alonso will be eased into playing time and will see Mychal Kendricks taking a lot of snaps in his place. Kendricks was one of the teams’ best defenders last year, and while it is a slightly different role, I see him rotating in with DeMeco Ryans in a more run stopping role and really even with injury this unit should be the strength. Ryans will get his time, and the run stopping aspect in Philadephia was the most efficient on the team, ranking 7th in the league. I am a fan Fletcher Cox, and I think Bennie Logan is an underrated key to this defense. Connor Barwin exploded by running behind Cox and was able to produce 14.5 sacks last year, a huge boost from his five in 2013. Vinnie Curry was also able to rack up nine sacks as a benefactor of playing with Cox, and he may get snaps as the third rotational outside linebacker this season. Brandon Graham struggled at times in his first year in a 3-4 defense, but the new OLB was a force in the run stopping as well. The depth of the linebacker group, as well on the defensive line is much improved and gives the Eagles their true strength to look to in 2015.

Defensive Weakness

The Eagles completely revamped their secondary, but I still see the pass being how this team gets beat. Walter Thurmond, a career slot corner is now moving to safety and while the shift shouldn’t be the toughest, Thurmond isn’t the greatest athlete and has also missed time due to injury in four of his five seasons. He may, however be the most talented player in the secondary this season. Thurmond came up in Seattle, but when he left in 2013, it was Bryon Maxwell who was taking his job. Maxwell basically takes it again and shifts Thurmond to safety as he is the most talented corner back. It was just two years ago that he was completing the deepest secondary in the league, and now after four years in Seattle he gets to be the top dog as far as corners go in Philadelphia. Those two are going to be doing a lot of learning in my opinion as guys like Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor, and Richard Sherman can help boost someones stock, and they even seem to have their third replacement for the two in Jeremy Lane. While the Seahawks are pumping out corners, the Eagles are hoping they didn’t miss on one. Eric Rowe will now be the top slot option, and may see time outside as well, as Nolan Carroll isn’t the greatest option across Maxwell. Maxwell and Thurmond bring their injury questions, and I see a lot of snaps for Rowe. Rowe has been put to question a lot in camp, and I question if he has the speed to stick in the slot for very long. Guys like EJ Biggers and Jaylen Watikins may see snaps, but that only means the plan in Philadelphia has gone array. I am not writing off Thurmond and Maxwell being key, pieces I just need to see them thrive on their own a little before I buy in.

Where do they rank? O/U 9.5

If anyone knocks off the defending champion Cowboys it will be the Eagles. That said I predict this team to finish 2nd mainly because my weaknesses out weight my strengths here. I don’t want to be going out and betting on Bradford, Thurmond, and Maxwell to stay healthy, and also be the exact fits that Kelly envisioned. I don’t see 9 wins if Mark Sanchez starts the majority of their games and that is why no play is given here. I can see if Bradford actually played 16 games this team at 10-6 and potentially in the drivers seat in the NFC East, but it isn’t worth the risk an I will give them second place and make no play here.

Parkers Pick: 2nd in the NFC East, No Play

Logans Pick: 2nd in the NFC East, No Play