Detroit Lions 2015 Season Preview

Detroit Lions

2014 Record: 11-5

2015 O/U 8

Off Season overview

The loss of Ndomukong Suh is a heart breaker. The team strength last year was Suh and the crew and the crew left with Suh. Suh, Nick Fairley, and CJ Mosley combined for 12 sacks and now none where the Lions' uniform. The three were able to rotate at the two defensive tackle positions and free up space for their defensive ends to really put up stats. To ease the pain, the Lions traded for Haloti Ngata, but they are getting him at his lowest value now at age 32 and coming off of a PED suspension. The Lions mixed up their gurad play by dumping Dominic Raiola and Rob Sims and adding Manny Ramirez. Ramirez is consistent and should be upgrade for the team. Overall there was little news besides the draft, in which they didn’t address the defensive tackle position. I can’t help but wonder how a team who relied on that line so much in 2014, now has it as a potential hole in two positions, if Ngata can be up to his name, and counting Jason Jones out due to injury currently. Either way they lost depth as well and now head into 2015 looking to change what they are.

Offensive Strength.

Megatron from Stafford remains the constant since 2011 and it has been a stat producer for both. Calvin Johnson is one of the biggest mismatches in the entire NFL due to his size. His last two seasons he has been dinged up, and the team has also tried to add a run game and complimentary players with Johnson locked in until 2019. Golden Tate has emerged as the perfect possession receiver to compliment Johnson and it makes the passing game formidable. Johnson missed three games, but Golden Tate had more receptions per game than Johnson. In Johnsons’ career he had never had a wide receiver finish second on the team in catches, let alone out produce him. In his first year with multiple threats, as well the first year in a Joe Lomardi offense. Stafford was able to put up a career low in INT rate in 2014.

What Lombardi is doing is trying to change the identity on offense. In 2012 the Lions went 4-12 and Matt Stafford had led the league in pass attempts. Since then,Stafford has a dropped in attempts by 93 year one, and 32 year two, the Lions have been 20-14 in that span, including 11-5 this year, in which he had the lowest attempts in a full 16 game season of his career. The defense is a cause for the success, and lack of attempts, but I think it also can be to the claim that this team is trying to run the ball. I didn’t mention it in the off-season overview because it wasn’t significant to me but the Lions lost Reggie Bush this year. In replacing Bush they have Theo Riddick on the roster and had drafted Ameer Abdullah, who at his age is probably a better all around back than Bush. Joqiue Bell remains in his role as a pounder and a power back between the tackles, but after coming off a career high in carries, he spent the off-season recovering from knee surgery. It shouldn’t be much of a concern, so I would pencil him in for a around 200 carries at a max. The team should rotate the three, as well as a young rookie Zach Zenner, and they should have more carries than passes this season if the defense wants them to. I really like the four guys in the rotation, and think the depth along with an addition in free agency and the draft to add to the guard position makes me think the change is coming. Overall this offense should be above average, the question will just be how high is the ceiling, and what is holding it back from being obtained?

Offensive Weakness

The offensive line is going to hold this team back more than anything else. Riley Reif has made strides as the teams left tackle, but it hasn’t made the rest of the jumble any easier to deal with. Despite the success of last year for Stafford and crew, the Lions gave up the 6th most sacks in 2014, and as a team ran for less than four yards per carry. Bell, and Bush each had a 3.9 yards per carry average, and it can be testified to the revolving door at the four other positions. Laken Tomlinson was their first-round pick, and they also trade for Ramirez on draft night to fill the immediate hole. Larry Warford was probably the second most consistent lineman in 2014, but may miss time at guard to start the 2015 season. The only hope is that Tomlinson takes off on tape, and that this team can really run the ball between the tackles. They can run it all they want, and with a talent like Abdullah it may work at times, but if they cannot consistently run the ball they will have to rely on the defense a little too much. It should be noted if the rookie takes advantage, as well as if the Lions can get help at the right tackle and center position from two-second year players.

Defensive Strengths

You can look at 2014 and see that this team was a top tier defense, and ranked 2nd against the run and were just a nightmare to match up against. Then you remember that only one of the same players in the leagues most feared fronts is back. I feel like I am bashing Ngata, but at this point in his career it should be known that he isn’t going to replace Suh, and the hope is he is better than what Fairley may have given you. The team does have a young emerging talent on that line left, and while Suh was the leader, Ziggy Ansah was the underrated terror. He is quick of the edge, and has a plethora of moves, and with averaging over seven sacks per season in his first two career years shows a high trajectory for the emerging stud. DeAndre Levy emerged in 2014 as well and now at 28 he has to be the true leader of the defense. The big question is how much did the monsters in front of him clear up space and blockers for him to get free and make plays? If blockers are in the second level he will have to adjust his game, but he is a savvy veteran that should be able to read plays, and make plays. Together these two are the backbone of the defense. As mentioned above Ngata should be a formidable piece as well.

Defensive Weakness

Even in the strength I couldn’t help but mention this defense is weaker. Beside Ngata is a rotation and of Tyrunn Walker, and Caraun Reid, and the two combined for one start in three years. As mentioned, opposite of Ansah may be a revolving door due to a Jason Jones injury that appears to have missing at least six weeks. Darryl Tapp is the listed starter, and hasn’t started 10 games since 2008. What has happened to the fearsome line in Detroit? Many proclaimed the line helped the secondary in becoming the 8th most efficient unit in the NFL. When you look at the names of the corner back depth chart it isn’t hard to argue with that claim. They have veterans at the safety position, so there is a chance it isn’t a dumpster fire, but at some point they are moving from Resean Mathis who just turned 35 recently right? Quandre Diggs was drafted this year and I think he can get some outside help, but if you gave me an over/under of 10 being the teams secondary efficiency I would take the over despite them returning the entire unit.

Where do they rank? Over Under 8

Vegas sees the issues that I see and they see really falling off. I tend to see this team really falling off as well, and I see them really regretting the Suh decision. The Lions start the season at San Diego, at Minnesota, home vs. Broncos, at Seahawks, and vs. Cardinals. There is a universe in which I see 0-5 but I think at best they are going 2-3 to start. That start has a team set towards eight wins, and I would honestly be looking to the under here. If you can find 8.5 it would be a play of mine and I see this team peaking around eight wins, with a small chance of nine. Mainly I see a seven win team, and hopefully the drawing boards will be filled to helping the defense return to what it was. For the time being I have them 3rd in the division and see seven wins.

Parkers Pick: 3rd in the NFC North, Under 8 wins

Logans Pick: 3rd in the NFC North, Under 8 wins