Green Bay Packers 2015 Season Preview

Green Bay Packers

2014 Record- 12-4

2015 O/U 11

Off Season Overview

The Packers should switch the Browns, join the AFC North and give you the quietest off seasons in the league in one division. The Packers do it a tee and while the Steelers, Ravens, and Bengals inhibited some change, the Packers remained very ho-hum. Their most significant loss is Tramon Williams. The team did have a plethora of corner backs, but Williams was a plus starter so it may be something to look into. Aside from that some depth names like AJ Hawk, Jarrett Boykin, Brad Jones, and Davon House left. Boykin can be of note due to the news that Jordy Nelson will be missed for the season, but we will get into that later. As a whole it is an off-season similar to the Ravens, Steelers, and Bengals. You expect this team to make bread in the draft and stay away from other teams trash. It usually leaves them in the salary caps’ good graces and it keeps the bottom of the team filled with young depth. That said, the Packers should be similarly good this year as the year before.

Offensive Strength

Would you have ever guessed that the top quarter back in the league is a teams’ strength? Aaron Rodgers, when healthy basically gives this team a floor of 10 wins, and I don’t think it is too much of an argument that he is the best at what he does any more. Rodgers has a career completion % of 65.8 and in 2014 he set a career high by leading the league with a 1% INT rate. He is the game manager with pocket awareness, and a cannon arm. He is worthy of being the strength of the whole, but then what does that say about Eddie Lacy and Randall Cobb? These two are no slouches, and the Jordy Nelson news really shines the light on Cobb. Cobb set career highs across the board last year and his 14.1 yards per catch and 12 touchdowns are such stand out numbers. He is a perfect possession receiver in the slot, and on the outsides, and he will have to be this teams majr threat on offense with Nelson now out. The spotlight is now solely on him, but with #12 zipping you the ball in space I see little problems here. The Packers also have their serious weight of the offensive line at the guard position and that, along with change of pacer James Starks, can turn Eddie Lacy into a large threat. Rodgers is great, but you can assist his career high INT rate to Lacy adding a dimension he never consistently had behind him. The attention Lacy requires is just enough for the gun slinger to absolutely destroy you, and a team playing in Wisconsin loves to save Lacys’ legs for December when he tends to churn out his best averages 4.89 yards per carry, and most carries, 18.5, compared to his career averages of 4.4 and 17. This makes this team so dangerous and every year if Rodgers is healthy you should be looking at this in the top tier of all offenses.

Offensive Weakness

The loss of Jordy Nelson has to be major. When you look at Nelson, he is only comparable to the Dez Bryants and Antonio Browns’ of the world. He played in the last two seasons without missing a game and lead the league in first down receptions over those two years. Rodgers is a guy who is all about timing and having that trust with Nelson he was able to throw it to a spot and Nelson was there, it was uncanny. To say that Cobb can just step into his role is crazy. Cobb will more than likely remain in a similar role of his own because of his production in that spot. Davante Adams is the one with the biggest weight to pick up and while I like him I am sure he cannot do what Nelson did. I saw Adams as the perfect James Jones replacement that got this offense going when Nelson, Jones, and Cobb came up together. Adams now is thrust into a newer role, and it also brings guys like Jeff Janis, and rookie Ty Montgomery into the equation. I would expect Janis, who has more size to handle outside duties to get more time, but how productive he will be will be the big question in the offense. If Rodgers is on the same page, they are just fine, if he losses trust; he is basically a decoy in the offense. Aside from that the Tackle position seems to have some questions, and the offensive lines depth is a question. If any of the interior starters go down it is a big hit, and the health and play of the tackles will be something to watch for all season. When you have Rodgers, the questions aren’t as bad as most teams, but it is something to watch nonetheless.

Defensive Strengths

Clay Matthews makes the line-backing core the teams’ greatest strength. The question now becomes, what position will he dominate at? Matthews’ was a pure pass rusher his whole career, but last season he played a lot of inside linebacker in a run-stopping role. It is because the inside position for this team is weak, but also because the pass rush is strong. The Packers were a top ten team in sacks in 2014, and the addition of Julius Peppers gives them an assortment of formations to choose from. Peppers is a “3-4 Ouside Linebacker” but having played defensive end his whole career his main job is to rush the passer. It gives the team the ability to show the 3-4, but to run 4-3 plays. Peppers, along with an emerging rusher, Nick Perry can put their hand down at any time and shift the formation one way or the other. It then gives you Matthews, the stud the ability to roam the field, and stuff the middle against the run, as well as take off for the passer at any moment. Aside from the confusion in the front, the back seems to be a rotating paradigm as well. The team ranked 11th against the pass, and while Williams is gone, Damrious Randall was drafted in round one this year to be basically be a do everything back up, and the depth around him is plentiful. Haha Clinton-Dix is expected to have a big year two, and beside him is the steady Morgan Burnett. The corner position features two above average players in Sam Shields, and Casey Hayward, as well as Micah Hyde in the slot. Now you add Randall to basically learn and see where he can fit in for the future. It is a good situation to be in for Green Bay, and gives them some nice options on defense to mix things up.

Defensive Weakness

The defensive problem in Green Bay in 2014 was stopping the run and it could remain the same in 2015. People can point to BJ Raji missing the entire season, but lets get real Raji is only known because he scored a touchdown in the playoffs once and the dance got him a commercial deal. There is a reason no one kicked the tires this off-season and he came back on a one-year minimum deal. Letroy Guion played a lot of nose in the multiple formation defenses in place of Raji, but now he is suspended for three games to start the year. Datone Jones, who took Guions place, has ironically enough been hit with a one game suspension himself. Aside from being lack luster, the two cannot separate from each other for playing time. Mike Daniels is the clear cut most impressive player on the line. He is underrated, but is no star that can carry these guys. Who starts week 1 opposite of Daniels will be very interesting, as well as how well can Raji can shift because he was a primary nose tackle and may not fit if the defense plays with their multiple sets. The really want the multiple sets because I would want Matthes to continue to be able to help at times in the run game from the middle. They were bare there last year and all they added was a 4th round pick this year. They have a 4th rounder last year and the two starters are 2013 6th and 7th rounders. It is tough to get high hopes on any of them, and if runs break past Raji they will get into the secondary too many times for the Packers to accept it. Without Matthews playing in the middle it could spring a leak that lets the avalanche turn games into shootouts.

Where do they rank? O/U 11

Since 2009, the Packers have won 10 games at a minimum if Aaron Rodgers is able to start 10 games. There is no reason to bet this team to just win 10 games unless you are psychic and are predicating the Rodgers injury. I don’t have those powers and wouldn’t advise the under here. However, with the Nelson news it is tough to see the Packers being a better team than the 12-4 team they were last year. The schedule is favorable and I think they are the top team in the division once again. As for the over/under I see this as an 11-5 team and would be pressed to give a play here.

Parkers Pick 1st in the NFC North, No play

Logans Pick: 1st in the NFC North, Over