New Orleans Saints 2015 Season Preview

New Orleans Saints

2014 Record: 7-9

2015 O/U: 8.5

Off Season Overview

While teams like the Texans, and Bills have contending rosters and no quarterback, the Saints are stuck in the exact opposite light with an aging super star quarterback, and a roster that is rebuilding. It left the Saints to make the decision to change their identity and prepare for life after Brees, or the extension of the Brees life by looking to run the ball first this season. Trading Jimmy Graham for an all pro center Max Unger, and Kenny Stills for line backer Danelle Ellerbe shows that Brees will have to adjust and his play makers may change, but the roster around him may be more complete overall. They also dumped Ben Grubbs, mainly for cap space, but also added a rookie offensive tackle. Guys like Pierre Thomas, Curtis Lofton, Jonathan Goodwin, and Patrick Robinson are gone, but really in a fresh start team these names would have just been lingering around. Guys like CJ Spiller, Mike McGlynn, Kevin Williams, Brandon Browner, and Kyle Wilson are new faces who all may get playing time, and with two acquired draft picks, to go along with their six they have some young faces looking at playing time as well. With Brees they are going to have heart, and they will compete, but the youth will be able to put in work and will be under the spot light for sure.

Offensive Strength

A lot of people looked at the failures of the 2014 season and decided to put some of that Drew Brees. I am here to tell you, that while Brees is now 36, and 2014 wasn’t his strongest campaign, Brees was about the only player who wasn’t the problem in New Orleans. Brees posted his third best mark in completion %, and his best rate since a career high in 2011. Brees did see an uptick in his INT total posting only two away from a career high there, but to that I look to the defense. This was a team that gave Brees the ball down a score way to often. The defense is still not equipped to win a Super Bowl with Brees, the Saints made the decision, instead of hoping for a 36 year old to win shootouts every week, why not control the clock on offense, decrease scoring, and attempts, and use an efficient Brees for limited smart passes. The Saints have two new starters, with the potential of three, if the Saints first round rookie Anrus Peat can win a job. With that, however, they upgraded at one of the most important positions of the entire unit, by adding arguably the best center in the game. If Unger can stay healthy he will anchor what should be an above average offensive line group. Behind that is some strong running back depth they should be able to rotate carries. Mark Ingram is coming off of a season in which he carried the ball 200 times for the first time in his career. Ingram has been an average runner for the most part, but does have some power between the tackles, and should help running behind Unger. Khiry Robinson can take turns running between the tackles as well, and while he only had 78 touches in 2014, he averaged 4.8 yards per carry. It shows good depth, and with the addition of CJ Spiller there is do everything ability from the trio in the backfield. I see Spiller in a role similar to what Darren Sproles did here from 2011-13. Basically Spiller would be in line for 50 carries, to go with 70 targets, and a true third down running back, which can catch the ball behind or around the line, and still get this team that unexpected first down. The crew of ball carriers should be the group that slows the game down, and creates easier passing decisions for Brees. In 2014, the Saints offense was above average in all aspects, and I would expect the personnel decisions have made an offense that should sustain that success.

Offensive Weakness

Brandin Cooks could find himself being a strength, but at this time him being the only reliable pass catcher is a reason to worry. Especially because everyone saw Cooks taking that Sproles role, and all the Sproles targets, but if Spiller is taking some of those targets, does Cooks get more wide receiver targets, or are they good with what he has, and the Spiller targets are taking from Graham/other wide outs. Cooks is electric fast, but with his three games on grass he averaged 2.6 catches, for 26 yards. He is also short, and losing Graham leaves this team with little to love in the red zone threat area. While Cooks while able to convert 77% of his targets into catches, Marquese Colston at 6’4” only converted 59%. He is now 32, and looked like his career was winding down since turning 30. He isn’t going to step up in red zone production for Saints, and it leaves a big hole without Graham and his 10 TD/year average. Ben Watson and Josh Hill aren’t here to save the day, and the depth behind Colston keeps his mediocre play on the field. It is easy to understand why the Saints had to make this move. Short passes to Cooks and Spiller are going to be their only success and running the ball had to be the move in the future for New Orleans.

Defensive Strengths

This defense is just not very strong. There are some small pieces to point out and say that hey they can have a big year, but as a whole I don’t see much. To start the big Cam Jordan is a great piece to have. Rob Ryan seems to be losing his mind right now, and I am unsure where the direction of the defense is going, but Jordan can create space, can bull rush and can find the passer. Jodan was the 3-4 defensive end, but the Saints acquiring Kevin Williams implies that 4-3 look is coming. Keeping more big bodies could help with the run, but it could leave them vulnerable for the pass. Kenny Vaccaro and Jarius Byrd have the potential to be an upper tier safety combination and it could help if teams want to test things deep. Having the deep ball and the run covered is a good way to find a bend but don’t break mentality. It suits the personnel but I am not sure about the direction of the personnel.

Defensive Weakness

Rob Ryan has always been a 3-4 guy. Ryan drafted a 3-4 outside linebacker in round two as well as an inside linebacker in round one. Then he signs Williams, and Ellerbe. Multiple formations have become a compelling move for most teams, but Rob Ryan seems to be grasping at straws. I am honestly perplexed at their front sevens and I wonder if Jordan will have to adjust in a new defense this year, and what exactly will this defense look like. Hau’Oli Kikaha is a pure pass rusher, but with Akeem Hick, Jordan, Williams, and Jon Jenkins on the field he will at least have to spend small snaps in coverage. First round pick Stephone Anthony is run stuffer as well and Ellerbe has never been great in coverage. It puts even more pressure on the secondary and those two safeties this year. Byrd is recovering from knee surgery, and he will also miss the first six weeks, so it will be the inexperienced of the two leading the back end. Brandon Browner is good for one pass interference every game, and Keenan Lewis now out 4-6 weeks in what could have been a major year for him. PJ Williams was drafted and had a chance to start over Browner, but he is now out for the year as well. This leaves this team in one of the worst corner back situations in the league. This defense ranked 32nd in the league against the pass, and it may not change. It is tough to run the ball and churn clock, when second you give it away they are giving it back up in chunks.

Where do they rank? O/U 8.5

The injuries to these corners are brutal. With this secondary starting with games at Arizona, vs. Tampa, at Carolina, vs. Dallas, and Philadelphia there is a chance this team starts 1-4 heading into a home game with a potentially potent Atlanta offense. There is potential for this thing to fall apart. The back end of the schedule is much more manageable and should Brees pull off two in that first five or six I think they will compete and hold 8 or 9 wins this season. I don’t think they should win the division, and lean toward them being the third best here due to the defensive questions, but I don’t eliminate eight wins, and I am too close to seeing nine to like the play here.

Parkers Pick: 3rd in the division, No play (lean under)

Logans Pick: 3rd in the division, Under 8.5 wins