Parkers Picks NFL Week 1

This year we will go through every game and give you a pick for each one every week, side and total. We will not be making every play, and some will be leans, but our opinions will be given for each game.

Packers -7 at Bears 52

Last year when the Packers were in Chicago the Bears were able to run the ball with a lot success in the first half. The Packers are a very public team and I think this is a few points high for a road division game. While I wouldn’t back the pack the Bears aren’t the sexy play. I would hope the public drives it up to 7.5, and would lean to Bears +7. As for the total I see a 27-24 type game, so I lean to the over, but really don’t find much value, especially if the Bears are to run the ball with success.

No Play, Lean Bears +7, Over 49

Chiefs +1 at Texans 41

The Texans will be looking to run the ball and control the clock. That job should be easier with the news that Dontari Poe is questionable. If Poe is no go I go Houston, if he plays I don’t play. The under however is where I look. I struggle to see either team scoring 20, and the Texans defense being the real story here.

Under 41 points, Lean Texans -1

Cleveland Browns +3 at New York Jets 40

The Jets should be able to run the ball effectively. The Browns offensive line vs. the Jets defense will be what solves this game. In the end, the Jets are at home, have a new offensive coordinator Chan Gailey, who has coached his QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, and they have the better defense. I would look to the Jets here and lean to the over, as the Browns may be able to find some points as well.

Jets -3, Lean over 40

Indianapolis Colts -3 at Buffalo Bills 45

The Colts come in without their starting nose tackle, and corner back and the Bills come in with a quarterback they have no tape on. You don’t look at the Colts and see a team that can stop the run and you don’t see anyone who can follow a running quarter back. Taylor could have a nice game and with the Bills defense they should pull off the upset. Most places are only giving 2.5, but you can find 3. I would look at the Bills and the under in this one.

Bills +3, Under 45

Miami Dolphins -3.5 at Washington 43.5

To me, this game is all about the over. The Dolphins are a team everybody is high on with another year in Bill Lazors’ offense, and Suh on defense. Washington doesn’t have much in the secondary, and the Dolphins will be looking to get ahead and to get out of there alive. It leaves the back door open, but it will make Kirk Cousins have to put up points, as Suh and the gang should eat up the run. Cousins may throw some interceptions, and that may lead to more Miami points. In all I lean to Miami blowing out a dysfunctional team, but I see points for the most part.

Over 43.5, Miami -3.5

Carolina Panthers -3 at Jacksonville Jaguars 41.5

The Jags are banged up, but so are the Panthers already. Players I would look to see if they are in the lineup are Ryan Khalil and Star Lotulelei. I see this as a 17-16 type of game, and tend to think Carolina could escape, but that said I would side with the points and look to the under.

Under 41.5, Lean Jags +3

Seattle Seahawks -4 at St. Louis Rams 41

I think Earl Thomas’ value still makes the secondary one of the best in the NFL and Nick Foles isn’t going to throw the ball. On the other hand, the Rams tend to have Seattles’ number and may be able to eat up the run with their big crew up front. The under seems legitimate here because I don’t think the Rams can score 20, but I do think they are in this until the end.

Under 41, Lean Hawks -4

New Orleans Saints +2.5 at Arizona Cardinals 48.5

With so many questions in the Saints secondary and the way both of these teams finished this line seems a bit fishy. When you look at the over/under, and the combination of losses in the Arizona defense it actually tends to add up. Brees’ has his big play makers for this season ready to go, and they may do it in a shootout, and I would look for 3 points, but I would go with the Saints here.

Saints +2.5, Lean Over 48.5

Detroit Lions +3 at San Diego Chargers 46

This is a game where you sit back and learn. The Chargers have better line play on both sides of the ball in my opinion as well as the better QB so I would definitely be looking at the Chargers here. At the same time, this game could spiral so many ways, and while it isn’t my favorite play, if I can find 2.5 I would take it.

Chargers -2.5, Lean Over

Baltimore Ravens +5 at Denver Broncos 48

The Broncos offense isn’t the one that put up 49 points in 2013. They are looking to run the ball, protect Manning, and play defense. That defense is stout might I add and I don’t know if any wide out in Baltimore has an advantage. The Ravens run defense is no joke as well and turns this into a stalemate. Gun to my head I take the points, but I am looking at the under as one of my favorite plays of the week.

Under 48, Lean Ravens +5

Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 at Oakland Raiders 43.5

Something just screams trap here. Andy Dalton is usually good in these no pressure games, but something tells me the black hole is alive. All of the sudden news comes Aldon Smith is rushing in rotations with Khalil Mack and Justin Tuck, and I see an ugly game that no one saw being so close. The Raiders will be on upset alert today and may pull it off.

Raiders +3.5, Lean Under 43.5

Tennessee Titans +3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 41

I don’t see any reason to play this game. On the one hand Dick Lebeau has his record against rookie QBs, on the other Lovie Smith is no defensive slouch. Winston is the gunslinger of the rookie QBs and makes you lean towards Tennessee winning the TO battle, but this is a game I would be looking to see where both teams are.

No Play, Lean Titans +3, Over 41

Stay Tuned for SNF pick, and always remember to find the best numbers you can, and always put a little on the money line when taking an under dog.