Parkers Picks NFL Week 3

Week 3 Picks

Week 2 had me feeling like Cersei from Game of Thrones during her walk of shame. It was ugly and embarrassing and I am just happy that I am home. These things happen, and my leans going 3-9 last week will hopefully be a season low. Through two weeks I am 13-15 on plays, and 10-13 on leans leaving me under .500. Lets try to pick it up in what seems like the real week of over reactions.

Pittsburgh Steelers -1 at St Louis Rams 48.5

Being from Pittsburgh and watching this team my entire life I can really see the Steelers losing in a let down spot here. The problem with a full out bet on the Rams is the Steelers offense is sensational, and now you add Leveon Bell, arguably the top skill player in the game. The over should hit, if not close because I think the Steelers will find their points, but ultimately I see Nick Foles hitting a couple lucky bombs on a depleted secondary, and the Steelers defense feeling too high from a shut down of the Niners. I can easily see the Rams taking this one.

Rams +1, Over 48.5

Chargers +2 at Minnesota Vikings 44.5

This is an ultimate stay away game for me. Two teams I have wanted to learn from now connect together and while both beat the Lions, I didn’t learn much in either of their other games. Chargers in back to back 1 PM eastern time starts has me leaning to the Vikings, but I would stay away from this one.

Lean Vikings -2, Lean Under 44.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6.5 at Houston Texans 40.5

This feels like another stay away game. The Bucs have showed Jekyll and Hyde through two weeks and the Texans have now burnt me two straight weeks. I have no idea why I was trusting Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallet without Arian Foster and I am not going to do it again. That said it is tough to bet on the Bucs oline against JJ Watt. A game I lean to only, but I would take Tampa and the points, and the under.

Lean Tampa Bay +6.5, Under 40.5

Philadelphia Eagles +2 at New York Jets 45.5

This is the ultimate over reaction. The Eagles were a missed FG away from winning a road prime time game in week 1. They then lose to a division opponent whom apparently was keyed into the teams’ calls at the line or signals. This seems to be a problem that is fixable, and the Eagles are as desperate as ever. The Jets who everybody loves coming home from a primetime road win now feel like the are facing an inferior opponent. The New York media gave them their dues, and this week it will be “how does this team lose at home to those the Eagles?”

Eagles +2, Under 45.5

New Orleans Saints +8 at Carolina Panthers 42.5

The obvious headline is that both McCown brothers get to start for the first time since December of 2007. Awesome. It leaves me not wanting any piece of this game though. Cam Newton has no help on offense, and Cam Jordan has little to no help for this Saints defense. Add to it that the McCown faces an above average defense and we have ourselves what may be an interesting game. I just cannot lay 8 points with that offense and will take the points because I have to, I would also take a look at the over in what could be a 24-20 type of game.

Lean Saints +8, Over 42.5

Jacksonville Jaguars +13.5 at New England Patriots 48

I have seen this game before. Bill Billichick makes it as ugly as possible, gives the good teams absolutely no tape to take away, and the Pats trail at half time but win by 10. Either way I do not see it being more than 14, and I would sit this one out and wait around until you see that 14 and take the Jags. I would also lean to the under, but just a lean because this Patriots defense may soon be under question.

Jacksonville Jaguars +14, Lean Under 48

Cincinnati Bengals +2.5 at Baltimore Ravens 44.5

This is the Ravens’ Super Bowl. You start 0-2 after staying on the west coast and you look at your schedule. A grinder against a division rival may be a tough homecoming, but you look ahead and see they will be playing an away primetime game AT their true division rival the Pittsburgh Steelers, fresh off a short week on a Thursday after playing the physical Bengals. The Bengals may be physical but the Ravens know the difference between 1-3 and 0-4, and they know if they go into Heinz Field 0-3 it may be lights out on their season. On this alone I am going with a coach I trust in John Harabaugh and a team who has won bigger games than this, and this will be my play of the week. As for the total, give me the under. The Ravens know they can’t let this game be a shoot out. They also know how to turn Andy Dalton over and his 7-12 TD-INT ratio against them suggests defense could be a factor in this one.

Baltimore Ravens -2.5, Under 44.5

Oakland Raiders +3 at Cleveland Browns 42.5

The last time the Raiders won back-to-back games was 2012, and that streak goes into Sunday at 8 straight losses in this spot, three last year. They are also 0-13 since 2010 when playing a game that kicks off at 1pm Eastern, and that includes a 4-9 ATS streak. I really am surprised it was only 3 but I will certainly lay it as I think that is the bare minimum the Browns win by this week. As for the total, I would look under. The Browns will look to run the ball, control the clock and sit on a lead, and their secondary will keep Derek Carr from turning this into a shoot out.

Browns-3, Under 42.5

Indianapolis Colts -3 at Tennessee Titans 46

This seems like another over reaction. I do believe in the turmoil in Indy, and I don’t think this team is going to live up to many peoples expectations, but this is the must win of all must wins, and it happens to come against baby brother. Since Andrew Luck has been drafted the Colts have not lost to Tennessee and even before that Manning owned them to where they are 6-19 in their past 25 games against the Colts. Marcus Mariota looks better than expected, yes, but not this much better. I will take the Colts and lean to the over here, as Luck may have to win a shoot out.

Colts -3, Lean Over 46

Atlanta Falcons -1 at Dallas Cowboys 44

This scream take the under. I know Dallas’ game plan and we all should. The less Weeden throws the better chance they have. They also have one of the best offensive lines in the league. The Falcons tend to be getting love for beating the Eagles and the Giants, but so did the Cowboys and their defense looked better than Atlantas’ in both. I think Dallas will be able to run a little bit, and I think they will still have a decent hold of the time of possession. This limits the Falcons offense, but as mentioned I think this Cowboy defense deserves just a little more credit. Weeden makes this a no play, but most other back ups and I am all over Dallas here.

Under 44, Lean Dallas +1

San Francisco +6.5 at Arizona Cardinals 44

This one I would wait around and hope it gets to seven and then I would take the points. The Cardinals are another early season darling, and who can blame them they are 15-2 when Carson Palmer and Bruce Arians are together. Arians was not here for much, but the 49ers have won 11 of their last 13 against the Cardinals and although a lot left this off-season some 49ers remember they still own this team. The Cardinals also beat the Bears and the Saints who may be competing for pick #1 this year, while the 49ers did perform against a team people like in Minnesota. A let down spot was obvious in Pittsburgh and I took nothing away from that game. Most people took a lot away as this spread jumped from 3.5 last week to now 6.5. Too high of a jump, hope you get 7 and lets go San Fran. As for the total, I wouldn’t touch it, but if I am playing San Fran, I would be hoping for an under.

49ers +7, Lean under 44

Chicago Bears +14 at Seattle Seahawks 43.5

How does Seattle not pitch a shut out here? They just so happen to get back Kam Chancellor when they are 0-2 and get Jimmy Clausen at home. I mean come on. That said give me the under in this one. Matt Forte may perform but it will be eating up clock in the mean time. Teasing Seattle down isn’t an awful idea, but I would honestly look to lay them in this situation.

Under 43.5, Lean Seattle -14

Buffalo Bills +3 at Miami Dolphins 41.5

I mentioned in my Dolphins preview that I hope this is Joe Philbins’ last season in Miami and it remains that way after his first two weeks here. He is awful and must not watch a lot of film. That said Rex Ryan knows him decently well, and Ryan has the defense to contain Ryan Tannehill and one of the weirdest running games in the league. I am a little nervous taking such little points against a teams home opener, but Miami also is flying to London Sunday night, so while they were home all week, it was spent preparing to go away for a week. The Bills have clear minds and were just put in their place by the top dog of the division. Time to see what the Bills are really made of.

Bills+3, Lean Under 41.5