Parkers Picks Week 4

Well no one said it was easy selecting a side and a total for every game. I will admit I have struggled in week 2 and 3 with even the plays I really like, but the start to 2015 has not gone the way I planned in many facets. I would assume it short-term variance so lets hope week 4 can help bring the winners.

New York Jets -1.5 at Miami Dolphins 42

I have been on the Joe Philbin hate train for about two years now and secretly I am rooting for Miamis’ wheels to fall off just so the mediocrity will end. Unfortunately I don’t think it does end. I see the Dolphins getting embarrassed and using that into fueling a solid performance. It is also too hard to get me to take Ryan Fitzpatrick, especially as his playmakers continue to fade away from injuries. The fact that it is London makes it a no play, but this game is Dolphins or pass for me.

Miami Dolphins +1.5, Over 42

Jacksonville Jaguars +9 at Indianapolis Colts 47.5

I would recommend grabbing the nine now, just in case Andrew Luck, a game time decision does not suit up. If he doesn’t play, the Colts will more than likely be in the realm of 2-point home favorites. The value is too hard to pass on if you believe he may not play. Away from that I am looking at Blake Bortles, who I have no faith in, and I look at the Colts offensive line with more holes than Tom Bradys’ back story and I am looking under here. Make it ugly, Indy.

Jacksonville +9, Under 47.5

Houston Texans +6 at Atlanta Falcons 46.5

This is a game I just can’t touch until I know the status of Arian Foster and Duane Brown. The two are the most valuable two on the offense for Houston and with them the over/under number makes sense. Without them I am looking under here all day. Houston has QB, and Dan Quinn is a great defensive coach. The Falcons should win, the question becomes how much. If Foster is out, give me the Falcons and the under, if Foster plays I may be looking Texans and over. I will assume he sits as I make this pick,

Falcons -6, Under 46.5

Carolina Panthers -3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 39.5

I have not been on the Panthers yet and am 1-2 ATS fading them. Here I come fading them once again. While they went 2-1 ATS, they are 3-0 in the record books and they have to be feeling good knowing that their star defender Luke Kuechley hasn’t played in two weeks. He still sits, and after facing Blake Bortles, Ryan Mallet, and Luke McCown in three weeks, a rookie in Jameis Winston may be the most talented QB they have faced. The Bucs know if you lose a home game in the division, and it slumps them to 1-3 and their rival to 4-0 with the tie break there is just no coming back. It should bring a must win feel, and I feel Tampa gets the job done and hands their rival that big first loss.

Bucs +3, Over 39.5

New York Giants +5 at Buffalo Bills 46

The Bills are coming a win that really proved that they are competing this year. After starting with the upset of the Colts, and then splitting division games the Bills may be feeling pretty good. When you look closer, you see the Colts are unraveling, the Pats were up twenty in the fourth quarter, and the Dolphins, as mentioned are also unraveling. When you look at the Giants you see a team who lost last second to Tony Romo and Dez Bryant led Cowboys, in Dallas. Then they blow a lead to the Falcons, who everyone seems to be higher on, and then they blow out a division rival, similar to Buffalo. In all the Giants have faced better competition, and where I consider that home loss to New England a blow out, I think that they have fared better to date as well. Eli Manning has yet to throw a pick, and it may not happen in Week 4. I think the Giants have a chance to really put their bid in for the division and this has upset written all over it. I will be looking at the Giants and I am guessing they want to control the clock and find an under here.

Giants +5, Under 46

Oakland Raiders -3 at Chicago Bears 44.5

I refuse to believe Oakland deserves to be favored yet. I like Carr, maybe not as much as some, but I like him. I just see Oakland and their history, and lack of success in the past ten plus years and I cannot buy in yet. They also now come in off of back-to-back wins, and back to back 1pm Eastern kick offs. No team in the past ten plus years has been worse in this scenario than the Oakland Raiders. Hold your nose when you go to the window but give me the Bears and what would have never been an upset 3 weeks ago.

Bears +3, Over 44.5

Philadelphia Eagles -3 at Washington 44

The hurricane issues make this game a no play. Aside from that everything I see points to Washington. Washingtons’ biggest weakness is the deep ball and Sam Bradford just so happens to not have that one in his arsenal. This should be a game of runs, but it is also a game of two solid defensive fronts. If I had to pick it is Washington and the under, but nothing compels me to take the plunge.

Washington +3.5, Under 44

Kansas City Chiefs +4 at Cincinnati Bengals 45

I am not touching this game. The Bengals have the better roster, and it may kill me to say it but they may have the better quarter back. One thing I have learned, however, is that the minute you want to anoint Andy Dalton anything other than average he will burn you and you will throw him right back in that spot. Because of Dalton, and possibly a chance of looking ahead to facing the Seahawks next week I will look to Kansas City here in what has to be a must win for them.

Chiefs +4, Over 45

Clevalnd Browns +7 at San Diego Chargers 44.5

This is another stay away game. The Chargers are open for teasers, but it would hurt me to lay seven with a team whose offensive line is as banged up as theirs. If they can’t run the ball it sets up better for the Browns. One thing I will say is no way am I taking this Cleveland team in a cross country road trip. Anything that can go wrong in Cleveland will go wrong, and I see the Chargers winning, so I will ride with them.

Chargers -7, Under 44.5

Green Bay Packers +8 at San Fransisco 49ers 48.5

This spread seems to high to me. Say what you want about Green Bay, but they cannot stop running quarterbacks. Colin Kaepernick doesn’t have the best QB skills, but what he is is a running QB. The Packers come in off of two home prime time games and I think they may be feeling a little comfortable, while the 49ers have flown back and forth around the country getting beaten on the road. No team is as bad their worst game and no team is as good as their best game. I think we get an effort from San Fran and I will take the plunge on the 49ers getting over a touchdown. I would also wait this out and hope to see 10 by kick off.

49ers +8, Over 48.5

Minnesota Vikings +7 at Denver Broncos 42

This game is going under. Minnesota has a beast defensive line and Denver has an offensive line in shambles. Denver has arguably the leagues best defense, while the Vikings have proven to be one dimensional through three weeks. Gun to my head I would take the points, but if Denver gets up it will be hard to come back, but I don’t think either team gets to 20 here.

Vikings +7, Under 42

St. Louis Rams +7 at Arizona Cardinals 43.5

Everything tells you to take the Rams. They are getting bashed throughout the media after two lack luster performances. Meanwhile you have the Cardinals being pronounced Super Bowl Champions and are getting talk about going undefeated. I don’t buy into all that hype but I just cannot take the 7 with the Rams. If Palmer is healthy this offense is legitimate, and it makes me look to the over here, while I don’t see Nick Foles killing his team this week, I don’t see him being able to keep them in it if Arizona can score. I wouldn’t recommend it but I will lay the points

Cardinals -7., Under 43.5