Parkers Picks NFL Week 5

Last week was a bounce back week for me. While some of my leans were still rejected, it was a good week in which most of my strong feelings did come to fruition. We will see if this trend can keep going, and try to weed out some winners as we head into week 5 slightly below .500.

Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 42

The Jaguars come in after one of the more heartbreaking division losses you can remember. The problem is that while you can expect a bounce back, you think how many situations has this Jaguar team been in good favor and failed to cover? Blake Bortles continues to be a guy I cannot bet on, and while Jameis Winston is having his rookie struggles, the position is a wash to me. Overall the game is a wash to me, and the Bucs being at home and being less 3-point favorites is value to me. I would look under in a slop fest, and look for the Bucs to run away with a field goal win.

Bucs -2.5, Under 42

Buffalo Bills -2 at Tennessee Titans 42.5

A lot of sharp money is on the Titans and I can understand why. The Bills seem to be on the down, and banged up, while the Titans come in off a bye to a home game. Mariota has been efficient in the short to intermediate game, and that is how Tom Brady and Eli Manning managed to tear up the Bills defense. I just don’t trust him enough to be a precise as the other two to beat what is still a really good defense. Tennessee still doesn’t have a running game, and I would definitely look under with Buffalo having scoring problems, but I do think Buffalo survives.

Buffalo -2, Under 42.5

Cleveland Browns +7 at Baltimore Ravens 43

The total reflects what you would typically expect in an AFC North rivalry game, I just don’t expect that to be the case. Neither teams defense is doing exceptionally well, and I think due to the Ravens poor play it is surprising to see them favored by this much in a division game. The Ravens should be able to run the ball, they just never seem to want to do it. The Browns may be able to hit some deep plays and keep this close and I would be taking the points here.

Browns +7, Over 43

Washington +7.5 at Atlanta Falcons 48

This is the ultimate chance to tease Washington and the under. Washington is still underrated due to their awful QB play, but they have a strong front 7 and a solid offensive line. Atlanta has not be the best against the run and comes in high and mighty after a beat down of Ryan Mallet and the Texans. Kirk Cousins isn’t much better than Mallet, but Washington should be able to stay close.

Washington +7.5, Under 48

Chicago Bears +8.5 at Kansas City Chiefs 45

I told myself not to lay over a TD with Alex Smith and I am sure I will look back at this laughing at myself for doing it. Either way the Chiefs are so desperate for a win. Facing Denver, Cincy, Green Bay and their 12-0 combined record doesn’t help, but it should explain why they are laying so many points with a 1-3 record. The Bears won a game in which they were underdogs against the Oakland Raiders. That should tell you where they are and they may just be happy to get the 0-16 talk away. Chiefs should roll here.

Chiefs -8.5 Over 45

New Orleans Saints +5.5 at Philadelphia Eagles 49.5

You may have to hold your nose to do it, but how many more chances will you get to fade the Saints on the road with less than a touchdown. I mean okay, Brees is back, and he was back in a home primetime against Brandon Weeden that went into overtime. I mean there were a lot of times in that game I assumed Dallas could put it away. The Eagles haven’t been pretty, but teams like Atlanta, Washington beat them in late seconds at home, and I feel as though those two teams were underrated at the time. The Saints defense is the absolute worse so if it doesn’t work for the offense here I don’t know what will. That said I am still looking under as this seems just a bit inflated.

Eagles -5.5, Under 49.5

St. Louis Rams +8.5 at Green Bay Packers 45.5

This should be the ultimate test for where the Rams are. We don’t know what Washington is yet, and failing to come back against the Steelers as Ben Roethlisberger played 2 and half quarters is tough gauge. So is beating two division rivals in impressive fashion. Especially when most people have those two in the top five of their power rankings. Either way I cannot keep fading Rodgers at home and expect to be profitable. I say he gets one here, in which the Rams are just happy to be where they are.

Packers -8.5, Over 45.5

Seattle Seahawks +3 at Cincinnati Bengals 43.5

The only play I can see here is to tease the Seahawks over 7 points. The Bengals have everything in favor to win this game against a team they may not have been expected to beat earlier this year. I have seen this story before and I have seen the Bengals show up in this spot dead flat. I cannot bet on them so I will lean to Seattle and the under.

Seattle +3, Under 43.5

Arizona Cardinals -2.5 at Detroit Lions 45

This spread shows the Lions are as desperate as ever for a win. For a team to be desperate, they have to be bad to start and that I truly believe. In my preseason predictions I saw regression coming, and after losing a game in which they had the ball on the five with a chance to win I cannot see an 0-4 team getting up for this game. Arizona has been humbled from a loss, and while they travel east, the game still kicks off at a reasonable time for the change. I will be looking at the Cards and the over here.

Cardinals -2.5, Over 45

New England Patriots -8 at Dallas Cowboys 50

Here is an easy tease. No chance the Patriots win by less than field goal. Brandon Weeden is 0-12 ATS his last 12 starts and the Patriots are out for blood against every one. There is no lay off, and the Pats are on it again, give me the Pats and the over all season long.

Patriots -8, Over 50

Denver Broncos -4.5 at Oakland Raiders 43

I think this is another chance to tease. I think that the Broncos win this game by 3 points. The Broncos have coverd their last seven division road games and that gives me no reason to take Oakland. However Denver cannot score much, and Jack Del Rio, Denvers’ old DC get his old nemesis and may have a say in some of the plays called. You can tease the Broncos to just win, you can tease the Raiders over 10 at home, either way include it with the under and you should be happy.

Raiders +4.5 Under 43