Parkers Picks Week 6

Last week was definitely the best of the year. My favorite plays hit, and the ones in which I was skeptical in picking were at about .500 and I now head into week 6 58-63-1 when selecting a side and total for every game on Sunday. This is by far one of the ugliest weeks I have seen in a while, but with that said we will try to squeeze out some winners.

Denver Broncos -4 at Cleveland Browns 42.5

I would initially pass on this side. I think Denver is slightly better, due to their defense, but the Browns are coming home off an emotional win and I could see them take an early lead, and put Peyton Manning in a tough position. Still, without two starters in the secondary it is hard to back the Browns against the talented Broncos receivers. If I had to pick I will go Browns, but I am all about the under. Denver cannot score, and I see them keeping it close with their defense. In all I would pick the Broncos in a 20-17 type of game.

Browns +4, Under 42.5

Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 at Buffalo Bills 43

For the first time since getting smacked by the Patriots in week 5 of 2014 people are buying the Bengals. It is tough to blame them, they faced a successful team and handled them. Also we have the trend of teams going to London being 1-7 ATS the week before. The Bills head there next week, which makes this a no play, but I would look to Buffalo. They have the strong defense, and can really make this ugly. The under is prime, but in what I see as a toss up I would look for the points.

Bills +3.5, Under 43

Kansas City Chiefs +3.5 at Minnesota Vikings 43

Aside from their anomaly of a week 1, which had them playing a 10:30 pm game on a Monday night, the Vikings actually have been playing good ball. Two home wins by a combined 27 points followed by a tight road loss to an undefeated Broncos team shows this team can hang. The Chiefs, on the other hand, cannot. Their season ran into a brick wall when their star player Jamaal Charles went down, and while you can argue they should bring their best effort to replace the stud, I see them at 1-4 and off of an embarrassing home loss, and I cannot see them getting up here. I will roll with the Vikes here and would be looking for the under to come in play, although I wouldn’t touch it without it being around 45.

Vikings -3.5, Under 43

Houston Texans +1.5 at Jacksonville Jaguars 43

I swear every week I say it is the last time I will look for the Texans to show up. Here I go back to the well however. The Texans have the extra time off, coming from a Thursday game, and have a new starter at QB. Lets face it, it was unknown a few weeks ago, but Brian Hoyer is better than Ryan Mallet. This is also game #2 in which Arian Foster is a full go and he is the most valuable running back in terms of record with and without him. The Jags head to London after the game, and may have the trip on their eyes, as we all know the playoffs aren’t. Bill O Brien may get fired this year if he doesn’t win a game like this, so lets go Billy.

Texans +1.5, Over 43

Chicago Bears +3 at Detroit Lions 44

You know it is an ugly week when I am looking at the Texans, and the 0-5 Lions are favored. This is their last dance, they basically know their season is over, and I think their hearts were torn after the loss in Seattle, but this is just not a game they can lose. They have enough talent not to go 0-16, and looking at the schedule this is a rare one they can win. Hold your nose, take the Lions and hope they don’t ruin your day.

Lions -3, Over 44

Washington +7 at New York Jets 40.5

No way I touch the side on this game. Washington has been underrated and has been a good team to back all season, and that is where I would be looking, but they are banged up. Back to back road games, and losing both starting CBs and their starting left tackle make this a possible blow out scenario, but the Jets are overrated, and over valued here. Washingtons’ defense is underrated, and the Jets defense is phenomenal. I would look for a 13-10 game, and while a Cousins pick 6 could give NY the cover, I don’t think it pushes this over.

Washington +7, Under 40.5

Arizona Cardinals -4 at Pittsburgh Steelers 45

I seem to be the last man on earth that thinks Arizona is slightly overrated. Beating the Saints, Lions, Niners, and Cutlerless Bears does not prove much of anything to me. The Steelers however are in an awful spot. After a short week, and a coast-to-coast travel schedule they now bring their back up QB in for the 3rd straight game. Michael Vick was absolutely awful in his last game against the Chargers, and if the Steelers have any chance he will have to air it out a bit more. The Cardinals have stayed on the East Coast for back to back weeks instead of going home for a few days, and all these variables make it an obvious no play. I would lean Steelers, and like the under a lot more, but I would stay away.

Pittsburgh +4, Under 45

Miami Dolphins +1 at Tennessee Titans 43.5

The fun continues as we add the Dolphins to the Lions and Texans as teams I am buying this week. Listen, the Dolphins are much more talented than the Titans. Firing your coach after four games is ugly, but I have been waiting for Joe Philbin to get the boot for a while now. He lost his team a year or so ago, and these assistants will be coaching their careers off this week. Like the Lions and Texans, if this week fails I am off them for the rest of the year, but lets bring it in you stinkers.

Dolphins +1, Over 43.5

Carolina Panthers +7 at Seattle Seahawks 40.5

These games are usually the first to 17 wins and it makes the under extremely juicy. Neither offense can move, and defenses are the strength and both teams will be hungry. The Panthers have the luxury of the bye week, but the Seahawks are in must win mode in a home game, after an ugly collapse at Cincy. I am still a firm Seattle believer, and have pegged the Panthers as a touch overrated. I think the line is right here, and would love 6.5, but I will hesitantly lay the 7, and obviously look the under.

Seattle -7. Under 40.5

San Diego Chargers +10.5 at Green Bay Packers 50.5

Phil Rivers wants me to pull the trigger so bad, but I cannot do it. The SD o line is a legitimate problem. There is no talent and leaves the Chargers as a pass only football team. Green Bay has an underrated D line, and has been a solid defense all year. They are susceptible to the run, but SD cannot do that here, and if Rodgers gets the lead, it could be pin your ears back time. I would look under, but also look to the Packers to pull out another two score win.

Packers -10.5, Under 50.5

Baltimore Ravens -2 at San Francisco 49ers 43.5

What an ugly week. To close I have to add either of these teams to all of the nastiness I have been playing. When you look at this line it is clearly off to me. The Ravens would be -8 at home when factoring in the difference, and I don’t know how they would be eight point favorites to anyone, anywhere. They are so due, and have 49ers former CB Shareece Wright on their side, but I cannot play an inflated line on such a poor team. The Ravens are legitimately bad, and I think the 49ers have to stand up for themselves this one time. The Wright news makes this a lean, but I like SF and I would definitely be on the over, as the Ravens defense is ridiculously overrated at this point.

49ers +2, Over 43.5