Parkers Picks Week 7
Parkers Picks
Last week was a great week to take all of my picks. A lot of plays I liked such as the Steelers and Niners came home and 13-7-1 will be profit every week. The first couple weeks I dug a hole, but here we head into week 7 with a 71-70-2 record in picking every game on the Sunday slate. We can only hope the trend remains as we have a decent set of games this week.
Buffalo Bills -4.5 at Jacksonville Jaguars 41, London
I am going to regret doing this. I would honestly advise you not to even touch this game but since I have to I am going to grab the points and questionably take the over. It seems as though two things that happen in London is that offenses open up and the better team usually wins an ugly game. When you take out Tyrod Taylor, Sammy Watkins, Percy Harvin, and Kyle Williams it becomes interesting who is actually better. In the ugly part of the game I see the Bills by a late second field goal and probably would have taken whoever is getting points.
Jaguars +4.5, Over 41
Cleveland Browns +6.5 at St. Louis Rams 41.5
Jeff Fisher is 13-7 ATS off the bye, and that is boosted with a 4-0 in St. Louis. I would assume those were a young team with out a QB getting hated throughout their bye week, but I think they opened this at 5.5 too low. The Rams are good, and Todd Gurley is already a stud at running back. Cleveland is 31st in DVOA against the run and if you ever watched Jeff Fisher he will not care to mix it up if he doesn’t have to. In all, thel Rams are a survivor pick and a teaser leg, and I really see them winning by at least seven here. I would look to the Rams, but still the under as they should dominate time of possession.
Rams -6.5, Under 41.5
Pittsburgh Steelers +3 at Kansas City Chiefs 43
Pittsburgh seems to have the best skill players in the NFL, and winning any games without Ben Roethlisberger has been a nod to that and to a defense no one saw being average. The moral of the story is the Steelers have a game next week against division leader Cincinnati, and while they are already two games behind Cincy, and could be 2.5 heading into that game. They have seen Roethlisberger, who is reportedly ready to go next week, and they know they can take 2.5 to 1.5 very easily in the burgh. Then you have Kansas City, the team who just cannot catch a break. I think coming back home to face Landry Jones is the just the key. If Jones doesn’t turn it over I think Pittsburgh can win, but I am not one to trust Jones in his first career start in Arrowhead. Give me the Chiefs and the over, as I could see Travis Kelce and Jeremy Maclin having nice games here.
Chiefs -3, Over 43
Houston Texans +5 at Miami Dolphins 44.5
This is going to be an over play for me. Arian Foster is just starting getting mixed in, and I think hard-core football fans know, but some may not know that Deandre Hopkins is arguably a top five wide receiver. The Dolphins defense made a stand against a beat up rookie quarterback fresh off of the bye, but come on they are not an excellent defense. They can hold their own on offense though, and that will be the key in what I see is a toss up at five. Vegas is saying Miami wins, but they don’t know by how much, and I agree. I would lean to taking the points, as I have no faith in Houston right now, but would much rather look at the over.
Miami -5, Over 44.5
New York Jets +7.5 at New England Patriots 47.5
Jets and under for me on this one. The Pats are operating on all levels, but this Jets team is always one that gives them fits. They can play smash mouth, and they can attack the Pats banged up offensive line. I think the number is fair, but with the hook I think the Jets lose this game by 4-7 points. As for the under, as I mentioned the Jets defensive line should win up front, making this a really tough game for Brady to get going in.
Jets +7.5, Under 47.5
Minnesota Vikings -1.5 at Detroit Lions 44.5
This game has to be Lions or pass. Just five weeks ago the Viking were not laying a full field goal at home to the Lions. They did win in impressive fashion, but in week two Detroit would have been -3.5 in this spot. To say that all of the sudden they are five points worse than where they were that long ago would be quite a statement. Losing to teams like Seattle, Denver and Arizona is not embarrassing, and with revenge built in the Lions could be frisky here. As for the total it would be under for me, but I do not love it. Guys like Adrian Peterson and Calvin Johnson are in favorable matchups, which is not good for the under.
Lions +1.5, Under 44.5
Atlanta Falcons -6 at Tennessee Titans 47
I cannot take Atlanta here. Just too many points for a road game, a game in which Tennessee is on the verge of losing three straight at home. Ken Whisenhunt has to be coaching for his job at this point, and while QB Marcus Mariota is back he has been an interception machine recently, so the change to Zach Mettenberger, in my opinion should not have swung the line like it did. Atlanta is also a team that does not play on a grass surface, and their only outdoor game was in New York, on turf, but they only scored 20. Hold your nose, and take Tennessee and the under.
Titans +6, Under 47
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 at Washington 42.5
The amount of interceptions in this game could get ridiculous. The buzz in Washington is not good heading into the game, and with a bye week ahead and now at 2-4 I could see a lot of people looking ahead. The Bucs come off the bye, and a week of rest for Mike Evans and a chance to reflect for Winston should be good in what is a more stable locker room than Washington. Washington is still missing both their cornerbacks, and possibly left tackle Trent Williams, so keep an eye out, but I already like Tampa here.
Tampa Bay +3, Over 42.5
New Orleans Saints +4 at Indianapolis Colts 52
I don’t think this line is right here. Just last week the Falcons would have laying ten at home against the Saints, and the Eagles close 6.5 point favorites I don’t feel right having Indy so many pegs below those two teams. The reports from the locker-room in Indy are not good, but isn’t the same thing going on in the Saints? I think Luck is healthier than Brees and think Indy gets by here, I also think the under may be in play because while both teams have great QBs, neither team has a good offensive line.
Colts -4, Under 52
Oakland Raiders +3.5 at San Diego Chargers 47
I think the injuries in San Diego are reflected in the line. That said, it probably isn’t enough. The Chargers last two weeks have come with heart break to add insult to all their injuries. Danny Woodhead is the only skill player not on the injury report, to add to the merry go offensive line, Brandon Flowers in and out of the lineup, and now Eric Weddle is out. Rivers gives his all, and dies trying every time, and I think we see similar, and maybe SD can pull one out by three.
Raiders +3.5 Over 47
Dallas Cowboys +3 at New York Giants 45
I am not touching this game. Everything tells me that the Cowboys should show up here, but come on the history of the Cowboys are not the Matt Cassell led Cowboys. Cassell, as well as reports of a shift in running back, and no Dez Bryant mean I cannot play Dallas on a short number. The fact that Eli usually struggles in these spots, and did so against other division foe Philadelphia make it tough to back the Giants. Gun to my head I think Eli bounces back here, and would lay the three, as well as the under.
Giants -3, Under 45
