Atlanta Hawks

Atlanta Hawks 60-22

2014 Record: 60-22

2015 O/U: 50.5

Who are their stars?

I found it interesting that four Hawks made the all star game and all return, but it is the loss of Demarre Carroll who the media are pointing to for this teams demise. No doubt, Carroll is a strong defender, he can guard any position, but he was the fifth best asset on the team. The greatest asset, Al Horford has been playing center for years, but with the loss of Carroll they used his money on a center in Tiago Splitter, which gives Horford a chance to play power forward. Historically he has been more efficient in that position, but due to lack of resources he has played most of his minutes at center. Less minutes at center for Horford also helps his health going forward at 29, and at 30 power forward Paul Milsap wore down toward the end of last season, helping in their playoff loss. Milsap can now see less minutes in general, but also in the small forward role. Milsap is only 6’8” and while he is a strong rebounder, he can certainly guard wings, and can shoot enough to draw defenders away from the hoop in what will be bigger lineups. The fact that this team has shooters also drives the defense away from the hoop, and Kyle Korver made an all-star game as a 3-and-D player. To be fair, for Korvers’ attempts to have his three-point percentage was deserved of a selection, and his defense seems to be very underrated. Beside him is Jeff Teague who can shoot, but can also handle and penetrate, and may be the most underrated guy on the team. In a point guard heavy league, for him to be a strong one is very important for this teams’ success, and although he seemed banged up towards last season, he has come alive in a few big moments in his career.

Who are their glue guys?

As mentioned, Tiago Splitter now takes Carrolls’ role holding it together. It obviously should mean size over speed, but Splitter is underrated in his running, as well as his game away from the hoop. Thabo Sefolosha should be added to the mix, and he had to miss the playoffs due to a bizarre off court incident. Sefolosha can be the Carroll replacement, as the guy who is guarding the better wing. It gives them a lot of lineup versatility now with Sefolosha playing both wings and Korver as well. It can fit multiple lengths and paces of lineups, and with a coach like Mike Budenholzer you have to like that. Dennis Schroder is another guy who is going to force “Bud” to be creative, because he needs more minutes. As mentioned, Teague had some soreness but Schroder was playing about the same quality as the teams’ point guard in the playoffs. Schroder is a scorer and may see some time next to Teague, but no matter what it shows to the teams’ ability to find the role guys to fit a system of moving pieces.

Rotational players?

The rotational players are nice in a way that they fit into how the team wants to play. Tim Hardaway Jr, was interesting trade on draft day, and I thought they could have found a rookie to produce, but apparently they see something in his shot. In a way he can spell Korver in lineups. Mike Scott is a guy who can score off of the bench, and in his size can spell Milsap in the PF/SF role. Kent Bazemore, Shelvin Mack, Mike Muscala, and Justin Holiday are all guys who will see minutes, and will all be able to help guys like Horford, and Milsap, and even Sefolosha find the right minutes to be healthier for a run this year than what they did last year.

Where do they rank? Over Under? How far do they go?

As I mentioned, I don’t think you lose your fifth best player, add another talented big man, and have to adjust your lineup and somehow see a ten game regression. Don’t fear it guys, the Hawks are here for the time being. The names haven’t really changed, and I would suspect they are competing for a one seed again this year, as they can pile on weaker eastern teams. This is an over all the way for me, as the question is closer to whether they win 60 games. As for the playoffs, like every team it comes down to how healthy you are. The Hawks, as well as the Heat, Bulls, and Wizards can make runs at the Cavs, but one of them will be out in the first round. I would pick the Hawks as the least likely to lose in the first round, unless matched up with the Cavs of course. Until then I will have to see the matchups before I pick them to beat Cleveland.

Over 50.5 wins, 2nd in the Eastern Conference, 8th in the NBA.