Parkers Picks Week 11

What a time to be alive! Week 10 was a fun one and featured a 14-7-1 record. It really felt like we had the touch there as we felt a dog week coming, and only two favorites covered and won out right. Vegas is always known to adjust to the trends so we head into week 11 knowing it may not be so easy this week, but a record of 122-115-4 you cannot be mad.

Washington +7 at Carolina Panthers 44.5

Kirk Cousins liked that Saints defense and it led him to stud fantasy day and a blow out win against a future Hall of Famer. Still, the Panthers defense is basically the exact opposite, and while they have to fall at some point, I think the high and might Cousins is not the day. The Panthers can roll here, but I would look under. They can get a lead, run the ball, and sit back and let Cousins try to come back.

Panthers -7, Under 44.5

Oakland Raiders +1 at Detroit Lions 50

Oakland playing its fourth game on the Eastern time zone is the only case I can make for the Lions being favored. The Raiders are a good team that was in a rough spot at home to the Vikings. The Vikings have proven legitimate and the Lions essentially won their biggest game of the past I don’t know how long in their win at Green Bay last year. I think the Raiders offensive line can buy time, and Carr can pick the crew apart.

Raiders +1, Over 50

Dallas Cowboys -1 at Miami Dolphins 46

Something about this smells fishy. I feel as though if Romo were fully healthy the Cowboys would be a full field goal favorite. However, you look into the perception of both teams, and the 2-7 record of the Cowboys being on the road and it can be somewhat understandable. In the end I cannot roll with Miami. They are now the more banged up team, and have proven they can get blown out at home.

Cowboys -1, Over 46

Indianapolis Colts +4.5 at Atlanta Falcons 46

The Colts now ride in with Matt Hasselback in what people seem to forget is a game with major playoff implications. The Falcons may be a fraud a 6-3, but it is tough to bet against a team coming off a bye in which they may have hit a season low point. Still, when I am asked who may want this game more I think the answer is the Colts. Hasselback can play game manager, and if the Colts can run the ball, they can control the clock, and can make it a tight one.

Colts +4.5, Under 46

St. Louis Rams +3 at Baltimore Ravens 41.5

In the past two weeks backing the Rams it sturck me. What am I doing backing the Rams? I am a big fan of their defensive line, and they have tremendous depth in the area but the past two weeks both Chris Long and Robert Quinn have been out or limited in injuries. The case I presented was that the depth can suffice, but it hasn’t, and the team isn’t strong when its strength isn’t nearly 100%. That said the Ravens come into a back-to-back home game situation feeling like they were robbed last week, and at some point they have to get one. I think the matchup is right for Baltimore here and will roll with them in a close one.

New York Jets -3 at Houston Texans 40

I don’t like the Jets situation but the Texans has to be worse. Sure, they there are playoff implications here but the Texans are not very good. I tend to think that Andy Dalton was more unprepared than the Texans made a statement Monday, and I think that on Sunday we remember who this team is. However, a play I would look more to is the under. DeAndre Hopkins should be on Revis Island, and TJ Yates may be starting against an injured Ryan Fitzpatrick. Neither should turn the ball over, but neither should score and that is what you are looking for.

Jets -3, Under 40

Green Bay Packers +1 at Minnesota Vikings 44

The Vikings are legitimate. Teddy Bridgewater as a starter has the Vikings at 14-5-1 against the spread, and while he doesn’t flash, he does manage pressure well. Either way, the Packers weakness is the run defense, and Adrian Peterson is the best back in the game. At the same time the Vikings pass rush is their most impressive unit, and the Packers tend to have been having trouble getting a quick passing game going. It sets up well for Minnesota, and I would look at them anywhere less than field goal.

Vikings -1, Over 44

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6 at Philadelphia Eagles 44.5

I do not understand why the Buccaneers getting so many points. The Eagles are just not a team that will beat teams that way. They have a great defense, but their offensive deficiency is a major problem. Still, the Bucs, have a rough pass defense, and it makes the Eagles have a chance for a big game. I would probably stay away, but if I had to grab the points, and the over.

Bucs +6, Over 44.5

Denver Broncos -2 at Chicago Bears 40.5

The Bears are rolling, but it looks like Alshon Jeffrey is back on the side line in this one. Demarcus Ware is out, but Aquib Talin is back and the depth at outside linebacker shouldn’t be a problem for Denver. Oh, and that one guys isn’t starting for Denver. Here is the thing, Manning was the worst quarterback in the league this season, and they managed to get this far. Brock Osweiler has to make his first career start against his former coach and OC, John Fox, and Adam Gase, so it is a somewhat weird situation. Still, the defense on Denver is much better, and that is where my money is going.

Denver -2, Under 40.5

San Francisco 49ers +13.5 at Seattle Seahawks 39.5

Blaine Gabbert got his two weeks of being the savior of the 49ers, and with Colin Kaepernick now on the sideline, he is no longer playing to start the rest of this season, but auditioning as the starter for next season. To that, I laugh and smile and will love to go against him this week. The Seahawks defense has had some issues, but they have covered eight straight against he 49ers. The Seahawks should be able to run the ball, control the clock, and if they could get a turnover or two in the endz one against Cards and Palmer, you better believe it is in play against Gabbert. I like the Hawks to roll here and would look at the under in a ridiculous low situation, but it is a bet that Gabbert may only be across midfield once or twice.

Seahawks -13.5, Under 39.5

Kansas City Chiefs -3 at San Diego Chargers 45

I have had the brunt of my success fading the Chargers this season and it sure has been fun. However, for some reason, I see this spread, and I say no way am going against SD here. Kansas City got to go to London, beat on a Lions team that had clearly given up as it lead to firings across the organization. You then get a bye, and have a coach who is 14-2 ATS off the bye. His record is helped as Peyton Manning; suffering from multiple injuries gave them the game. The Chargers are getting somewhat healthier, and I would check the injury reports before making the play, but I like the Chargers. I also like the under, as both teams don’t have many dimensions to their offense.

Chargers +3, Under 45