Parkers Picks Week 14

Well this is why they call it gambling. You stay afloat for 11 weeks or so, and three terrible weeks brings you right back to average. Weeks 2,3, and 13 are by far my worst and have put me 22 back in the loss column between the three weeks. If you happened to skip those three weeks and trusted me elsewhere I am sure you are satisfied, but those poor weeks bring me to 156-154-5 and leave me hungry to redeem myself.

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 at Cincinnati Bengals 49.5

I have been rather successful this year going with the Steelers and the over and this one seems no different. We saw a low scoring game in round 1 of this rivalry, but what I saw was the Steelers score 7 in their first drive, and see their star RB, and clear #1 option that day go down with a disturbing injury on the second drive. It put a clear funk into the Steelers plan, and it has them seeking revenge with a bad taste in their mouth. Ben Roethlisberger is 9-2 in Cincinnati, and the Ohio kid is comfortable beating the baby brother Bengals. Despite the Bengals with the better record and at home, I will gladly take three and hope it doesn’t go down before you can make the play.

Steelers +3, Over 49.5

Buffalo Bills PK at Philadelphia Eagles 47

Two teams you seemingly have no idea what to expect from. Last week could have been the Eagles Super Bowl, and honestly they looked ugly beating a dismantled Patriots team. However, the Eagles are in first place in their disgustingly bad division and do have more to play for then beating the Pats. Still, the Bills are playing for the playoffs as well, and even if the Eagles give supreme effort I don’t see it being enough.

Bills PK, Over 47

Atlanta Falcons +8 at Carolina Panthers 46.5

This one is tough, and is one I wouldn’t touch, except in the idea of teasing the Panthers. Matt Ryan has been awful this year, but when he is at his worst is in crucial moments of close games. That makes me think it could be a closer game here for a little. That said, if Ryan turns it over multiple times, the Falcons will get blown out, and that is why I will hesitantly lay the points.

Panters -8, Under 46.5

Washington +3.5 at Chicago Bears 43.5

The Bears have been a team where your best bet is to guess which team shows up. The fighting Kirk Cousins’ on the other hand are a team I have been pretty much dead on in a week-by-week scale. The key is that Cousins isn’t as strong on the road, and against good defenses. The Bears defense is somewhat good? They should at least get pressure on check down Kirk, and should make the under an intriguing play. All that said, the most embarrassing thing I will see all season would be if the Bears lose to Washington and the 49ers in back to back home games. I cannot see that and like the Bears here.

Bears -3.5, Under 43.5

Detroit Lions -3 at St. Louis Rams 41

I think that if you bet this game you are a little demented. The Lions lost their Super Bowl, and their only legit chance at a playoff birth in the heartbreak to end all heart breaks last week. The Rams have legitimately quit, and haven’t won a game since Robert Quinn has gone down. Case Keenum is in for the Rams which is an upgrade, but again let me advise do not play this game, but I lean to Detroit.

Lions -3, Over 41

San Diego Chargers +10 at Kansas City Chiefs 45

The situations and the teams are much different, but lets look back to the last time the Chiefs laid ten at home. It was to a dead in the water Bears team, who happened to erase an 11 point halftime deficit to out right beat the Chiefs. I agree, the Chiefs are hot, but Andy Reid loves to mess around and keep teams like the Chargers in the game. The Chargers have all but quit, but Phillip Rivers wants to win no matter what. Keep the back door open and hope Phil gets us a cover.

Chargers +10, Over 45

New Orleans Saints +4.5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 50.5

After watching this Saints team on the road I am surprised this isn’t higher. Sure, the Bucs are no world beater, but they are playing against card board cut outs this week. The Saints played their Super Bowl last week and came up short and 0-2 against the Panthers. The Bucs still have things to play for, and as mentioned in my previous post I am taking over the Winston bandwagon.

Bucs -4.5, Over 50.5

Indianapolis Colts PK at Jacksonville Jaguars 46

I know that Andrew Luck had a lot to do it with it, but the Colts have won the last five meetings with their division foe. They have also dominated a majority of the past 10 years, and when speaking of mentality there has to be something in the back of their minds that they know how this usually ends. I think that mentality was on display as Matt Hasselback dinked and dunked to a road victory in Houston earlier this year, and I see a dose of the same in this one.

Colts PK, Over 46

Tennessee Titans +7 at New York Jets 43.5

I feel like every week I find myself attracted to Tennessee. They don’t get any respect, they probably don’t deserve any but here I am again. This is mainly because I do not trust the Jets to score enough to put this team away. Even if it comes to a back door cover, I think the rookie Marcus Mariota obviously cannot show quit and he should keep his team in the game for all 60 minutes. The Titans defense has had its moments, and you would hope they can keep Fitzpatrick in check for an under.

Titans +7, 43.5

Oakland Raiders +7 Denver Broncos 43.5

I like the under here. I do in most Broncos games, but this one screams under to me. The Broncos play a style of offense and defense that works with scoring twenty at the most and winning games. I wouldn’t trust this one as much as the Titans above, but I think the Raiders can stick around this game, a game that basically says pack it up if you lose, and they can muster a cover.

Raiders +7, Under 43.5

Dallas Cowboys +7 at Green Bay Packers 42.5

The biggest mismatch of this game may be the Dallas defensive line against the Packers offensive line. The Pack are banged up, and the Cowboys played inspired in a road game against a much better line than this one. The Packers should be able to contain Matt Cassel and keep this game under the total, but if Darren McFadden can run on this porous Packer D, I think Dallas can win this one, and therefore cannot lay seven with them.

Cowboys +7, Under 42.5

Seattle Seahawks -13 at Baltimore Ravens 40.5

They just want me to take the Ravens. I will say it right here don’t even look to this game. The one note worth making is that Jimmy Clausen is familiar with OC Mark Trestman, so starting on short notice isn’t the worst possible case scenario. Also the Ravens have not lost by double digits this season, and while I am sure it will happen in this one I will stupidly grab the points.

Ravens +13, Under 40.5