Parkers Picks Week 15

Another rough week wasn’t too bad given the success of the Steelers and the over being my biggest plays. Still consistency is what we need to work on and the home stretch should be the toughest tests of the season at 163-167-5

New York Jets -3 at Dallas Cowboys 41.5

We have got ourselves to the point where the numbers and stats matter much less, and the will to win be the determining factor. The Cowboys are not buried from their divison, but if you are asking me to bet the Cowboys are going to show up like the division is on the line I cannot. The Jets D line against the Cowboys O line is the matchup of the day and if the Jets win that they win the game in a shut out. The Jets offense is more well rounded so I will roll with them giving points on the road.

Jets -3, Under 41.5

Chicago Bears +5.5 at Minnesota Vikings 43

The Bears are a team I am just looking away from. John Fox has a strong record as a head coach in revenge spots, including a win at Green Bay this season. However, who knows what you get from this team on a week in and week out basis. Also, the Vikings are banged up and stumbling down the stretch which seems to make it a nice spot here for the Bears. However, Their variance on a week-to-week basis is dumfounding and I wouldn’t touch it.

Bears +5.5, Over 43

Atlanta Falcons +3 at Jacksonville Jaguars 49.5

I may die fading the Jaguars at this point, but here we go. This Falcons thing does have to stop at some point. The Jaguars don’t have a good home field advantage, and for the Falcons it could be good to get away from the pressure of home, but not be tasked with a foe like the Panthers. Matt Ryan needs to build confidence and the Jags secondary is still somewhat suspect. All this said it is Falcons or pass for me and I am looking for the offense to come alive.

Falcons +3, Over 49.5

Houston Texans +2 at Indianapolis Colts 41.5

This is the most bizarre game in quite some time. Matt Hasselback versus TJ Yates in week 15 with a division title on the line. If you bet this you are a wild person. That said Donte Moncreif appears to be out this week, and the Colts looked dead in the water at Jacksonville in the second half. Yates has won Houston a playoff game, and the team shouldn’t quit behind them. For years this Texans team has been second to Indy, and if they cannot kick this Colts team while they are down, it just will never happen, even in their poor situation. Look for Hopkins to demand the ball, and Houston to score just enough to post a victory.

Texans +2, Under 41.5

Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 at Baltimore Ravens 41

At seven you have to look to the Ravens, at 6.5 I would touch it. Heck, I wouldn’t touch it in general. The Chiefs now three weeks without Justin Houston are just striding along in a group of great situations. One day it will catch up with this team. If you want me to bet it happens against Matt Schaub I will respectfully decline, but the under seems to be a solid move here. The Ravens should show up, and only lost by more than 8 points last week with Jimmy Clausen. The Chiefs will be looking to get an early TD, a late pick six, and walk away with a 17-7 win.

Chiefs -6.5, Under 41

Buffalo Bills -2 at Washington 44

I have had a pretty good beat on the Washington team this year but the win in Chicago surprised me. They played well, but come into this game with a banged up Desean Jackson. The Bills on the other hand played a poor game in Philadelphia, and this game really has me perplexed. In the end, I still think Buffalo is the better team, and unless they quit on the season they should be able to make some plays.

Bills -2, Under 44

Tennessee Titans +14 at New England Patriots 47

The Patriots are not great when laying fourteen points, but the Titans seem to be a team that is going through the motions. The Jets game showed no emotion, and you hope the depleted weapons does not impede Marcus Mariotas’ growth as a passer. Bill Belicheck is a master of eliminating the teams top weapon, and if that means Delanie Walker, than it should be one of his easiest tasks of the year. I will lay it, mainly because I don’t think the Titans can score more than once.

Patriots -14, Under 47

Carolina Panthers -4 at New York Giants 48

I have been bit here before. At six I had a speech prepare to tall you to grab the Giants. At four I just cannot do it. People talk about this. The Panthers hear that people are expecting this to be their loss. They don’t have Jonathan Stewart, and this makes this an absolute no play for me, but I am not going to doubt Cam Newton and that defense for at least another week.

Panthers -4, Over 48

Cleveland Browns +15 at Seattle Seahawks 43

The question you have to ask yourself in this one is how much will Seattle score? A lot of people see this game being the unraveling of Manziel, but I could see the surprise being that Manziel didn’t turn the ball over in this one. Mainly because I could see a lot of predictable play calling, and a plethora of three and outs, but I see Cleveland just looking to survive this one without debacle. The Seahawks don’t have too much to prove as they have the grasp of the “team no one in the NFC wants to face” team. They also have back to back division games to finish this year, and that is against teams that have beat them this year. Running it up on the Browns wouldn’t be proactive, and I could see a 20-10 type of affair.

Browns +15, Under 43

Green Bay Packers -3 at Oakland Raiders 48

This game has over written all over it. The Broncos had the right idea against the Raiders last week, just not the correct personnel. I expect Aaron Rodgers to sling it all over the field, and remind fantasy owners why they took him so early in this one. The Packers defense on the other hand is why this is only a three point spread. I don’t see them getting home against the Raiders offensive line much, and that means it could be eating time for Derek Carr, Michael Crabtree, and Amari Cooper. The ability for the Raiders to pass should let them establish a run against a defense that is even weaker against the run than rushing the passer, and defending the pass. Two potent offenses, and two under performing defenses and both coming off low scoring wins against inept quarterbacks has this one screaming over.

Raiders +3, Over 48

Miami Dolphins +2 at San Diego Chargers 45.5

If we saw anything in Thursday’s game this week we saw a team potentially playing its last game in their stadium put in a great performance. With much of this game being meaningless, Phillip Rivers, Antonio Gates, and Malcolm Floyd are ending an era together in San Diego. The Dolphins have a short week, a trip to a new beach to party on, and a lame duck coach to play for.

Chargers -2, Over 45.5

Denver Broncos +6.5 at Pittsburgh Steelers 44.5

The best defense in the league heads to the best offense in the league. The way I see this game is that the Steelers can blow out the Broncos, the Broncos on the other hand cannot blow out the Steelers. The Broncos will have their hands full keeping the Steelers under 20, and I am unsure if Brock Osweiler on the road can get his team to 24 points. That said, I think the Broncos can certainly cover, and personally like the under more. If it is close, it will be because the Steelers offense only scored around 20.

Steelers -6.5 44.5

Cincinnati Bengals -6 at San Francisco 49ers 40.5

This may have a bit of the Ewing theory here. A lot of people questioning the Benglas chances to win a Super Bowl now that a guy nobody thought could win a Super Bowl is gone. The problem is AJ McCarron, as I remember from college does not have an NFL arm. His pick six against the Steelers was because he threw one of the slower passes I have seen. All that said, the defense of the Bengals should absolutely destroy Blaine Gabbert. The last two weeks, after facing pressure he played by far his worst of the season. The Bengals can bring a lot of pressure and the 49ers may not score at home.

Bengals -6, Over 40.5