NFL Divisional Playoff Preview: Chiefs At Patriots

Kansas City Chiefs +4.5 @ New England Patriots 42 It seems as though this year more than others has injury news as a top story in virtually every game. This game is no different, and based on reports may have the most questionable players in major roles, and most of them have had a foggy status all week and will be game time decisions. It makes breaking down the matchup much more difficult, but at the same time it does give you some information to go into the week knowing. First is that for both teams their leading pass catcher isn't practicing this week. Jeremy Maclin went from a potential torn ACL to being questionable with a high ankle sprain (talk about foggy). Rob Gronkowski has had a known injury, and while that had him out of practice all week, it was recently added to the Patriots injury report that he is also nursing an injured back. One could argue that while Tom Brady and Alex Smith are established NFL quarterbacks, no one can deny that these two made their jobs a heck of alot easier this year and may be just as valuable to the offense as their signal caller. It leaves me thinking that there will be a lot of vanilla in this game. Risks may not be taken, and both defenses should certainly be prepared for this one. On the other side of the ball for both teams it is becoming eerie how similar the injuries are. Justin Houston the team's leading sack man has been injured the last five games, and while he played in their blowout win of the Texans he still has yet to practice this week. Chandler Jones, the Patriots sack master has the biggest questions over his head as reports say he is recovering from an overdose on a legal drug. Basically there is enough information to completely pass the game on the whole, but that is not why we are here. In all, Maclin is probably the least likely to go, and Jones is the most likely (advantage Pats). The Patriots also will be getting their most targeted asset Julian Edleman back this week. Edleman recovering from a foot injury does make his play a bit of an unknown, but his presence of running short routes over the middle opens up a lot of other areas for the Pats. Most of the area opened is the short flats and that can utilized by James White. White had to take over for an injured Dion Lewis, but in his past three games without Edleman he was able to receive for 152 yards on 14 catches and two touchdowns. Brady has had a guy like White for the past three or four years now, and with the short flats and short middle used by White and Edleman it opens the outsides and deep middle. Gronkowski controls the deep middle, and without at least his body on the field to take the space, it will make it hard for the outside receivers to be too successful. On defense, the Patriots will look to stop the run and reap the benefits of no Maclin. Alex Smith has thrown the ball downfield much more this year than previously, but a lot of that can also be attributed to Maclin. Outside of Maclin this is a team that runs the ball first, and works their receivers or tight end Travis Kelce open off of play action. The Patriots struggle against tight ends in that they give up a lot of touchdowns to them, but at the same time Bill Belichick is a coach who likes to shut down your top option, forcing you to win what else you have, and not many teams have a tight end considered their best option. If Maclin is out the clear attention in the pass will be on Kelce, and with linebackers Donta Hightower and Jamie Collins healthy I could see a job well done here. It will force the Chiefs to do things they are uncomfortable with. The Chiefs know shootouts result in losses for them, and getting the Pats in uncomfortable situations is the only way they can hang around. Sacking Brady has been the Pats cryptonite this year, and while Justin Houston and Tamba Hali are known quality rushers, their health and quality of play may be the difference here. It should be a slugfest and a game in which one big shot play or one swing of field position can do it. Neither quarterback is known to turn it over, and it makes the under the play here. Both teams should win their field position battles, and both coaches can set up third down conversions, but the ability to sustain long drives with offensive pieces missing will be the challenge. In the end, I lean to Brady over Smith and the Pats over the Chiefs in what should be a great game. Pats -4.5, under 42