NFL Divisional Playoff Preview: Packers at Cardinals

Green Bay Packers +7 at Arizona Cardinals 49.5 In the last post I had highlighted how Green Bay has had its lowest of lows in their past ten games. Essentially tough competition has blown them out and the feeling around the team was that they wouldn't be capable to go far. They then got shut out in the first quarter and had to feel lucky to be down 5-0 at that point. Then, all of the sudden Washington became the Washington we had been waiting all year for, the defense fell apart, and Cousins became in actuate in the end of a 35-13 route in the last three quarters. At the end of the day some could have taken away that the Packers righted the ship in that second part of the game. However, when you break it down it can be seen differently. The Packers were out gained last week, and Washington won the time of possession. Rodgers was only 21-36 in that game, and while the Pack ran the ball 31 times, it was only twelve Eddie Lacy touches at 5.2 yards per touch. Washington lost that game as much as Green Bay won it, and when the win only adds the loss of Davante Adams, who emerged for four catches and a touchdown last week it is tough to say things are smooth sailing in Green Bay again. They do, however come in seeking revenge. It was an absolute beat down the last time these two teams met in Arizona and the Packers will have to keep that in mind while preparing this week. You can expect the Cardinals to come in cocky, but I wouldn't put them at over confident. This is a team that has wins of 47-7, 42-17, 40-17 and of course 38-8 over the Green Bay Packers. Bruce Arians is a guy who will keep the Cards feeling disrespected. He keeps the foot on the gas and will challenge his team to exceed the win in December and to move on in the playoffs. In the Xs and Os, the loss of Tyrann Mathieu for the Cardinals is major. The Cards won their first game without him (happened to be the Packers), but lost 36-6 in their most recent game without him. That said he is preferably a shutdown slot corner, with blitzing ability. How Green Bay would attack that mismatch is to line up Randall Cobb in the slot. Unfortunately now that not only Jordy Nelson is out, but also Adams, it will leave Cobb having to pick up major duty on the outside, and push Jared Abberderis to the slot. It makes dealing with the loss of Matthieu easier, and puts All-Pro cornerback Patrick Peterson on Cobb on the outside, which is a major mismatch in favor of the Cards. Also, as Matthieu liked to come in from the slot, it should be mentioned that right tackle is currently up in the air as to who will start for Green Bay. You then look to the last time they played, sans Matthieu and see the Cardinals, a team with their worst attribute being pass rush was able to sack Rodgers eight times. The Pack would have to run the ball to control this game, and as mentioned it doesn't seem like something the Packers are committed to doing. Sam Shields looks to be out again, and while Kirk Cousins couldn't quite expose the banged up secondary, Carson Palmer is having an MVP type season and his weapons, fresh off of a week off should be healthier than ever. This includes the running back position, and David Johnson, a rookie who has finally established himself as the top carrier. In his last five games, Johnson has 80 carries for 442 yards, a 5.5 yard per carry mark and five touchdowns. Johnson is fresh, he can catch, he has some decent power and if he gets going it leaves no holes on this offense. While the Packers have revenge I don't see them getting it today. The Cardinals are 4-2 against teams with winning records, to the Packers 3-4. They are also the better, healthier team and at home. It would be an impressive feat for Rodgers, and he cannot be dismissed, but as mentioned, he hasn't been great this year, and last week wasn't a stellar performance either.The Cardinals could score early and often, and the Pack could be dropping back to pass all game. Assuming they fix some holes and he doesn't get sacked eight times I would suspect a little more than eight points this time out. A tease of the over and the Cardinals, as well as using the Cardinals as a leg in many teases should get home this week. The Cardinals are just the better team, and gun to my head I’d pick them to win a 38-28 type of game. Cardinals -7, Over 49.5