AFC Championship Preview
New England Patriots -3 at Denver Broncos 44.5
The Classic “Brady vs Manning” moniker will be used for more than likely for the final time, as it seems all but certain this is the last year of Peyton Manning. Of course, the two actually have never faced each other on the field, and in this instance Manning is a shell of his old self, but still whatever creates the hype right? In the end, it is Brady vs. The number one defense in almost anyway you look at it and it is Manning against, an underrated defense, especially due to the health and emergence of Jamie Collins in the past few weeks.
The Pats finished their season 12th in defensive efficiency, 10th against the run and 13th against the pass. As mentioned, they are healthier, and the question will be, albeit on the road, is this Broncos offense much scarier than the Chiefs offense they had recently faced? On name value alone, absolutely. Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are the keys here. Manning cannot stretch the field with them, but both are phenomenal after the catch, and with that is where the Broncos will have to succeed. The Patriots goal here should be similar to any Gary Kubiak led team, and it starts with shutting down the run. Kubiak uses a variety of schemes, and his ability to never shy away from the run, even if it isn’t working early on keeps defenses honest. Whether the Pats are effective against the run or not, the look of a run first team can open things up for Thomas and Sanders.
Essentially, even if Thomas and Sanders are able to open this thing up, the only chance the Broncos will win this game is if they control the clock, and keep the Patriots and Tom Brady to a scoring minimum. The Chiefs defense was mighty hot, and the Patriots were able to pick apart their defense with the short passes, and a strong game from Rob Gronkowski. Still, it has been mentioned in the Chiefs last two games that their pass rush was recovering from significant injuries, and those left Justin Houston playing in only eight snaps, with Tamba Hali playing just a few more. At the end of the day Brady was sacked zero times on Saturday. In comparison, in the Patriots last three games, Brady was sacked twice in each game while the Pats limped to a 1-2 end of the season. On the flip side, the Broncos have gone 3-0 down the stretch including the playoffs, and in games against the Steelers and Bengals (two of the better offensive lines in the league) the Broncos combined for 5 sacks, three last week against the Steelers mighty line. They also recorded three against the Chargers to end the season, and despite missing Demarcus Ware down the stretch of the season, he is healthy now, and adds to Von Miller who created 11 sacks in 2015, and Shaq Barrett and Shane Ray combined for 9.5 sacks stepping up for the injured Ware in the regular season. Essentially, it gives them an extremely potent pass rush, and could put the Patriots in a lot third and long situations.
While cornerback Chris Harris is supposedly injured, he has practiced all week, and has said he will be good to go. That is major because he will be guarding Julian Edleman in this one, and Harris is the best at what he does, mainly against receivers in the slot such as Edleman. If Harris is able to win this matchup, it will put a lot of pressure on Brady to stand in there, avoid the manic rush, and make plays down the field. It isn’t something he has been able to do in the past few games, and it gives the Broncos their biggest advantage of the game.
The easiest way for the Pats to stop the rush, is to rush the ball themselves. It would keep guys like Miller from pinning his ears straight after Brady, but at the same time, the Patriots have hardly attempted to rush the ball in over a month. From Legarrette Blount, to Brandon Bolden, led to a Joey Iosefa appearance before the team signed Steven Jackson who has led the team in carries for the last two games. Yes, this is the Steven Jackson that was retired until about three weeks ago. It is clear that even if the Patriots attempt to run the ball, they will be reliant on the pass to win this game.
In the end, the under seems to be the best play here. You have a Broncos team that wants to run the ball, and a Patriots team unafraid to load up to stop it. On the flip side the Patriots will avoid running the ball at all costs, and the Broncos are all set to get after Brady in the pocket. Field position and turnovers should be key, but if the Patriots can be contained to around 20, it is right where the Broncos want them to make their move. This game really isn’t the forgone conclusion and Patriot runaway that many may think it is. With the Broncos being at home, I give them a lean to keep this close and get the cover, but like the idea of them getting 3.5 points a lot more than 3.
Under 44.5 Broncos +3
