NFC Championship Preview
Arizona Cardinals +3 at Carolina Panthers 47.5
It would be fair to say that since week 1, these two teams have been the most consistent on a week to week basis. At the beginning of the year, it was the Cardinals and Panthers' defense that were being praised as better than expected, but at the end of the year it was Carson Palmer and Cam Newton who were one and two in everybodies MVP rankings. It is Newton with 45 touchdowns this year being the leader in the MVP race, and between him and Palmer, it was Newton in the divisional round who had lived up to his regular season expectations.
While Carson Palmer has only been in three playoff games since 2005, one of which consisted of one pass, Newton had just finished his fourth career playoff game in three years, and now has a record of 2-2. In a division that went nearly a decade without consecutive division winners, Newton had won his third straight, and now at 16-1 in a year where everyone doubted him, it seems as though all signs point to a strong Newton performance.
While Newton gets all the praise in his work at leading a run/pass balance, it is two sidekicks, Greg Olsen and Jonathan Stewert who were able to surprise, Stewert setting career highs in starts and attempts, Olsen setting career highs in targets and yards. Last week it was Stewert, coming off of an injury that sidelined him late in the year. I had stated if he didn't get going it would make them susceptible to a defense like Seattle. On the first play of the game he made me look foolish by going on a 59 yard run that led to a touchdown.
From that point on the Panthers dominated that game, and while they gave up a huge lead to make the game close, the Panthers have been jumping on teams, throwing the first punch at home for months now. Their last five home games have featured halftime scores of, 31-0, 24-6, 28-0, 31-14, and 27-7. While the Panthers haven't faced the most significant competition this season, it was against three playoff teams, and the 8-8 Falcons that the Panthers had this home run.
The Cardinals on the other hand are coming off of three straight home games, and in their last three road trips, they have faced the Eagles, 49ers, and Rams, three teams under .500. Despite going 7-1 on the road, they were only 1- 1 against playoff teams, and the loss was to a Landry Jones led Pittsburgh team.
As far as the matchups go, the Cardinals will want to attack the cornerbacks away from Josh Norman, and lining Larry Fitzgerald up in the slot should be the best way to attack Carolina. The Panthers, despite losing Jared Allen (arguably their fourth or fifth best pass rusher at this point) should be able to get pressure on Carson Palmer, meaning the free release of Fitzgerald from the slot will be the go to for the Cards. While that will be effective, if the Cardinals want to bust this game open, it will be either Jon Brown or Michael Floyd who will need to get open deep to keep the defense on its heels.
On the other side, the loss Tyrann Matthieu may really loom large for the Cardinals. This will be their first road game since losing "Honey Badger" and the Cards are 1-2 ATS since his loss. Matthieu is a guy who has been a menace blitzing off the edge, is underrated in run defense, and has been the go to guy to stop the slot wide receiver. At the end of the day, the Cards will throw Patrick Peterson on Tedd Ginn, which could result in 0 catches for Ginn, but it will be all of the other matchups in which Newton will want to expose. Finding guys like Jericho Cotchery, Corey Brown, and Devn Funchess is what everyone discredits when they mention the Panthers. It is because none of these are game breakers. However, they can be used for quick passes. and Newton has been so efficient that they essentially just have to avoid drops, and hope Newton hits the open guy.
When the Panthers can effectively run the ball with not only Stewert but their quarterback, as well as pick teams apart with the quick and efficient passes, it leads you to belive that this, like every other game this year is Newton's to lose.
Like last week, the defenses on paper have this set to be a chess match and a low scoring one. However, it is the dynamic nature of Cam Newton that has put up 30 points in nine games, 27 in 15 games and should be looking at another chance to put up points in this one. However, the Cardinals do have what it takes to match with offense, and if Palmer can be accurate in throwing down the field, it will be what turns this game in the Cardinals favor. Nonetheless, it makes the over the most intriguing play. Both teams are decently balanced, and while play makers are on both sides of the ball here, that may only increase the possibilty of this being a back and forth 31-30 type of game. In the end, I lean to Newton putting another feather in his cap and winning one. However, Arizona is formidable, and to lay three is tough, let alone if you are forced to decided whether to lay 3.5. For the post, I will go with the Panthers, but will be looking more to how many points will be scored, and hope Palmer has enough to get his team to keep this one close.
Over 47.5 Panthers -3
