NFL Wild Card Preview Chiefs at Texans

Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 at Houston Texans 40

The Kansas City Chiefs come in red-hot and tend to be the consensus winner of the game by the media. Winning ten straight games is impressive, there is no doubt, but you still have to look into how they did it. Six of those games were against teams with a record of 30-56 and their four wins were at home to the 8-8 Bills, beating the Lions in London the week before the Lions fired their offensive coordinator, the Steelers at home with Landry Jones, and the infamous Peyton Manning 5 interceptions on a busted foot game.

The Texans on the other hand are 7-2 in their last nine, and wins include the Andy Dalton led Bengals in Cincinnati and the New York Jets. In their four home games since the bye, the Texans have allowed 10 points per game.

The Texans currently have best duo of pass rushers in JJ Watt and Whitney Mercilus, with a combined 29.5 sacks between them. If former first overall pick Jadeveon Clowney is healthy or not he is just icing on the cake. The Chiefs have a strong duo themselves in Tamba Hali and Justin Houstin, but with Houston coming off a five game lay off due to injury, and Hali missing his last two, as well as few weak performances before hand you have to hope they show up for this one.

The Chiefs pass rush gets a break in left tackle Duan Brown being injured for the year, but the Texans replacement Chris Clark has played this year, has been in Houston all year, and does have playoff experience from Denver. The matchup between him and Justin Houstin could surely decide this game.

Deandre Hopkins surely may have a chance to decide this game as well in what should be a low scoring match. “Nuk” will get extra attention, but the Texans game plan has been capable of getting him targets consistently, and he can take advantage of any slip up. What may break Hopkins open is the ability for the Texans to run the ball. The Chiefs have a great run defense, and in no way will the Texans have much success running the ball. The key however is to avoid becoming one-dimensional. They cannot become a pass heavy team. In the past three games they ran the ball an average of 36 times per game and that is enough to keep defenses honest. The Texans went 3-0 and Hopkins had 32 catches for 300 yards and 1 touchdown in this last stretch.

While Brian Hoyer has only started in 9 games and in two he left the game early, he has a TD:INT ratio of 19:7, while Alex Smith in his 16 game seasons has a 20:7 ratio. The Chiefs game plan all year has been to establish an early lead and to sit on it by creating turnovers. It is certainly possible here, but if the Texans can stick to their script. The Chiefs will be fine playing right into it and playing conservative in a tight game.

The under should be a solid play, and both teams are fine getting out of there with a win by scoring 17 points. Whichever offense can open up the pass will win this game, it could come down to a big play and in that regard Hopkins and Hoyer at home can out do Maclin and Smith. 3.5 is much safer than 3, but either way the Texans may come away shocking the world and pulling off a low scoring upset.

Under 40, Texans +3.5