NFL Wild Card Preview Steelers at Bengals

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 at Cincinnati Bengals 45.5

Both teams come into this matchup mad, motivated, but also injured in key roles. The Bengals without their quarterback Andy Dalton is shown in the spread, but the loss of Deangelo Williams may really hurt. The Steelers are the best passing offense in the NFL, but in the last three games Roethlisberger has thrown six Interceptions. He has been off with wide receiver Martavis Bryant and even called him out in the media to step up his game in the playoffs. How Bryant responds on the field will be the difference because in those three games he averaged 3.9 catches for 31 yards and Roethlisberger missing him deep has caused many of those interceptions.

AJ McCarron on the other hand has not thrown any interceptions in starts since coming in for relief against these same Steelers that he will face in the same building. He gave up a pick six in relief that virtually ended the game, and while he has looked fine since then, he hasn’t been asked to do much. Hue Jacksons’ game script gave this team two excellent drives to start the game at Denver, and they were two of only three drives the Bengals have scored in the last three games when starting on their own side of mid field.

Turnovers have been the key to success for the Bengals and have been the downfall of the Steelers. In games when the Steelers lose the turn over battle they are 2-4 and when they win the turn over battle they are 7-0. Their defense has played a bend but don’t break style of football, but this is game when they need to unleash the hounds. Jackson caught the Broncos off guard with misdirection, play action and motion, and you have to expect similar here, as well as testing the tackling of the secondary, which has been suspect in Pittsburgh. If the Steelers let McCarron sit back AJ Green, Marvin Jones, Mohammed Sanu, Tyler Eifert, and Gio Bernard will torch them. If the Steelers can mix blitzes, and their rotation of linebackers can make McCarron move, or make him uncomfortable it will change the game. The Steelers playing with a lead would be key here as well. It would bring a “here we go again” mentality to the talented veterans on this team who are 2-11 to the Steelers in Cincinnatti when Roethlisberger starts. It also puts pressure on McCarron to throw the ball, in which he has averaged 184 yards per game in his three starts. Of course his career high was 282 yards in relief of Dalton to the Steelers, but he came in down 10-0 and most of his production came after a 23-7 Steelers lead. That game fell right into the Steelers hands, and if they end up getting up 10-0 to McCarron again you would expect the same.

The Bengals have had a strong run game, the Steelers have a strong pass game, and neither will be denied. The Steelers and Antonio Brown will certainly get theres, and if the Bengals are successfully running the ball they will be holding a lead. That right there points to well over 45 points being scored. In the same event, it is hard to see McCarron playing keep up, and if the Steelers can reach the number of 30 they will win this game. It will be a test of the Steelers offensive line to set up just enough of a ground game to free up Brown, Bryant, Markus Wheaton, and Heath Miller to get this team flustered, and at the end of the day the Steelers should walk away with this one.

Over 45.5 points, Steelers -3