NFL Wild Card Preview: Packers at Washington

Green Bay Packers +1 at Washington 44.5 If anyone told you this would be the spread of a playoff game earlier in this year you would have asked how the books are not going out of business when they lose all their money by people betting the Packers. That's why they play the games, and in the last 10 games Washington has rattled off a record of 7-3 while the Pack have been playing 4-6 football their past 10. To be fair, the Packers faced four playoff teams in their losses, but you have to understand almost all of them were decisive losses. Losses to the Broncos 29-10 in which the offense was held to 140 yards compounded into a 27-7 halftime deficit to the Panthers. The Cardinals beat them 38-8 and the Vikings led 20-3 late in the fourth quarter. If it weren't for garbage time the Packers would be looking even worse. They also needed two pick six’s to beat the Raiders and a Hail Mary to beat the Lions. The problem is the offense has no identity. Without Jordy Nelson at this time of the year the Packers want to run the ball with their beast Eddie Lacy. Unfortunately, whether it be practice reps, a personal issue or lack of trust Lacy has not touched the ball 20 times in six of their last seven games. The Packers have a very banged up offensive line, and while it cannot establish the ground attack either, being one dimensional has killed this team. Teams are pinning their ears to Rodgers and getting home quite successfully. Washington has a poor run defense, but the question will be does Green Bay even want to expose it? If they do not, it will be pass rush of Ryan Kerrigan, Preston Smith and Trent Murphy making Rodgers furious. On the other side of the ball the Packers will have to shut down the pass to stay relevant here. Washington has a poor run game, but what they do is throw short passes to their backs to keep them involved and to keep the defense honest. It has helped in making Kirk Cousins lead the league in completion percentage. Sam Shields being sidelined for this one may be underrated. What has sparked the Washington take off is not only Cousins play, but who Cousins is playing with. His receiving crew has been healthy for this last run, and between Desean Jackson, Pierre Garçon, Jamison Crowder and Jordan Reed it is truly a task to stop all of them. Without Shields it leaves potential mismatches all over the field. In name value alone Rodgers is better than Cousins, and the Packers are better than Washington. However, when breaking it down Washington is clearly the better team. Aaron Rodgers has a demeanor to him that he kind of seems to know this isn't the year for him and his boys. He has been very frustrated, doesn't have any answers, and because of that I see his team dead in the water. Washington comes in as a team with life, momentum, good vibes and a clean bill of health. If Cousins plays anything like his past 10 games this one could be over by halftime. It is still a step up in defensive competition compared to any one he has faced in the past month, but this Packers defense shouldn't be able to win this game alone. If Rodgers can dust off this bad mojo and go off, so be it. Personally, I doubt he can and not even sure he wants to. It makes taking Washington a lot easier, and while Rodgers may struggle the over is still the better play. If Rodgers is getting sacked and turning it over, Washington will build a big lead ensuing garbage time Packer points. If the Packers are back their offense can hang 40 themselves. Washington -1 over 44.5